Be careful using EV to make decisions this way because it can blind you to other wagering possibilities.
Let's assume:
$1,000 bankroll
Chi +3.5 -110
GB -3.5 +120 (though +125 was possible as I actually averaged -127 on Chi +3.5 before the game (-EV
)
)
Let's further assume Chi +3.5 has a 55% win rate resulting in a 5% +EV (a little more generous than your +4.8%)
Now, full-Kelly for -110 with a 55% win rate is 5.5% of bankroll or a $55 wager. $55 * 5% advantage means that this wager has a +EV of: $2.75.
If we arb (I try to use the term arb for those situations where you wager both sides simultaneously for a guaranteed profit as opposed to the term hedge which can and usually carries risk), what % of bankroll can we use? Since it is a guaranteed profit, the answer is 100%!
For example you can wager $535 to win $486.36 on -110 and $464.26 to win $557.11 on +120 for a guaranteed profit of $22.10/22.11 regardless of which side wins. This is far in excess of the $2.75 EV you could win even wagering full-Kelly (and no one should ever wager more than full-Kelly IMO if you are serious about trying to make consistent profits).
If you managed to get +125 on GB -3.5 the wagers would have been approx:
$540 to win 490.91 on -110 and 458.18 to win 572.73 on +125 for a guaranteed profit of $32.73, and again, much higher than the EV of the stand-alone advantage side.
This one was easy to see because of the guaranteed profit. It is trickier when there is not a guaranteed profit (more of what I describe as a hedge) and it is hidden in the %'s of the currently available and/or future wagers.
Joe.