So, I'm working on my first model, and I'm going to naturally back-test it, and I need old pre-season projected data to use. For example, this website has old Bill James projected stats, all which cost around $8 or $9. I'll buy them if I have to, but I thought I'd come here first and see if anyone would be nice enough to share the data if they already have it. I'll take as many years as anyone would be willing to share. Let me know if you're willing and I'll PM you my email address.
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so you are building a model to make money betting baseball but are unwilling to shell out the 8 bucks for some important data you need. are you going to be wagering napkins and lollipops?Comment -
No, smart ass. I never said I was unwilling. Try reading before making an idiotic comment on this. I said before buying it I thought I'd check to see if anyone here was willing to share data. You can't be that stupid, can you?Comment -
probably worth it on a per hour basis to just buy them
all the time you spend responding to trolls should be spent acquiring currencyComment -
Ypu can find some of the old free projections here:
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On another note, does anyone know where to get historical MLB opening lines prior to 2007? SBROdds only goes back to that season, and I'd like to back-test further than that.Comment -
gold sheetComment -
It is possible to make your own pre-season projections but you need to have a lot of historical data and individual player stats and info to do this effectively. Depends how much work you want to put into this.
However, it's unlikely that you have anything like the resources of Bill James so it would be reasonable to assume that Bill James' projections would be more accurate to use. Definately worth paying just a few dollars to get access.Comment -
Also, you should be building your model with future data entry in mind from the start. There are free projection packs like ZIPS and Marcels, but they are in slightly different formats, so if you expect to be using the Bill James data sets in the future, plan accordingly.Comment -
Thanks, guys, I appreciate the input. I've been working on my scraper recently trying to make that work properly but I'm almost to the point where I'll be using data.
One specific question about the Bill James data that I have is in regards to the website that I found with said historical data, http://bis-store.stores.yahoo.net/. They include the Bill James hitting data, but as Bill James doesn't do projections for pitchers himself does anyone know if the Baseball Info Solutions pitcher projections are any good? If not, is there another place where I should try and get them for pitchers?Comment -
JVP, Bill James has pitching projections on page 494 of his Bill James 2011 Handbook.Comment -
PECOTA is the most well known from Baseball Prospectus. I think it costs something like $20 for a Fantasy Subscription.
FanGraphs.com has a bunch as well--Marcel, ZiPS, and a few others.
Pick the one with the easiest to use data set IMO.Comment -
+1 for doing your development with free projections first (Marcel)
Then go to Pecota or Bill JamesComment -
Right, but I think I read somewhere that Bill James doesn't actually do the pitching projections in his handbook. From what I read, he only does pitcher projections and some other people do the pitching ones that go into his handbook.
Either way, thanks everyone for all of your help.Comment -
I have Zips 2011 pre-season projections all nice and neat in a spreadsheet if you would like. The "mini-model" I was toying with worked well with them. I can post them when I get home from work tonight if you'd like.
Side note: Aren't pre-season projections just about useless right about now? If you're using them for learning purposes then I see no problem with that.Comment -
Damn, I didn't see your reply until just now. If you wouldn't mind posting the Zips files I would greatly appreciate it, the mirror site on the Baseball Projection Project no longer has the file.
One thing, though. I noticed on the Zips projections as well as the Marcel projections there are no team names next to the players. For most players it's not an issue, but if I'm trying to determine how many runs the bullpen might give up I would need to know all of the players available from the team's bullpen, thus needing team names near player names. Is there some easy way of which anyone knows that I can import those names (even a site from where I can scrape the data all at once instead of going team-by-team, year-by-year)?
I know preseason projections are pretty much useless right now, but for my first model, I'm following what Justin7 wrote about in his book. From this I can change things and see what might work and what might not, but from the start I'm just trying to replicate the model he talked about in his book, and then go from there.Comment -
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If that link doesn't work, just let me know. Each player has a team abbreviation, so you're good there.
I also made his model step by step in Excel, so when you're done, if you want to compare, just PM me.
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They came out great, thanks.
Yeah, I figure his model is a good place to start considering I've never made one before, right? What I'm doing now is collecting monthly stats for all hitting, pitching, and fielding going back to 2007. I figure, you never know when you might need it to modify the model.Comment -
Okay, now what should be my last question pertains to back-testing my model. Does anyone have a website where I can find historical injury data? I want to account for injuries in testing for overnight lines, and I have daily transaction data, but injuries are the last part of my model for which I can't find historical data.Comment -
Depending on how your current data is setup, it might be easiest to attempt to back into injury information by analyzing starting line-ups and looking for periods of absence from regular players.Comment -
http://injurydb.drivelinebaseball.com/ has individual player injury data, but no way to download all the data at once.Comment
