Can you be profitable without an edge?

[JOHON8]

The only way you can make money gambling is using a betting exchange like Betfair. There you can make bets live and pretty much dodge the lines which the bookmakers have spent hours adjusting for the public/sharps. The online world has changed significantly since you started gambling, many bookmakers don't allow live lines for certain game or don't offer as many freedoms as a betting exchange because they simply can't keep up with the pace.

Too many people think sports gambling is about picking a side and hoping that all the "research" will pay off... what research? You mean the research that the bookmaker has already done and is 100x ahead of you mathematically? Take advantage of new technologies online or be stuck with the old crowd.

[3dm]

The only way i have been able to win is to pay a good service for picks, and then slowly build my bankroll. it took a year to find that service now i am hitting 70-80% . it gets pricey but in the long run it is worth it

[That Foreign Guy]

The only way i have been able to win is to pay a good service for picks, and then slowly build my bankroll. it took a year to find that service now i am hitting 70-80% . it gets pricey but in the long run it is worth it

Oh please tell us what this service is and who we have to pay to get it. I am so glad you came here to share this valuable information with us.

/sarcasm.

[bztips]

I can't wait to start hitting 70-80% guaranteed!!

[Sportsfan800]

The only way i have been able to win is to pay a good service for picks, and then slowly build my bankroll. it took a year to find that service now i am hitting 70-80% . it gets pricey but in the long run it is worth it

This person should be permanently banned from the Think Tank.

[jgilmartin]

What, you guys haven't heard of that new tout service that only releases plays priced at -300 or higher?

[drfunkmaster]

the only way i have been able to win is to pay a good service for picks, and then slowly build my bankroll. It took a year to find that service now i am hitting 70-80% . It gets pricey but in the long run it is worth it

please dont msg me via a pm!!!

[constrictor]

Yes. my point exactly. That is why I ask, can you win without an edge since after all it could never be quantified. Can common sense and a sound money management plan prove profitable? Common sense meaning a good general knowledge of the sport.

I think common sense maybe not enough in picking winners.

good insight or penetration is needed.

[mycon]

The only way you can make money gambling is using a betting exchange like Betfair. There you can make bets live and pretty much dodge the lines which the bookmakers have spent hours adjusting for the public/sharps.

1. Not true. You can make money off of bookmakers. If you're doing it consistently only Pinnacle and a few Asians (at reduced prices) come to my mind, but still it is possible. Plus: If you can't make money off of a bookie, at least in theory, chances are you won't beat the exchanges either.

2. Live is a different animal anyway. That arena seems more suitable for exchanges though, at least as a recreational bettor.

[mycon]

I am really torn right now. I have been betting on sports for 12 years now. At first, I was throwing money away with parlays. As I matured and learned, I backed off parlays and went with straight bets. I was playing the favorites in all sports. I could never win. Just recently I have betting underdogs in all sports; some favorites as well. Still no success. I have done every system. Some systems I have paid big money for. That didn't work. I have done chases--no luck. I try to look for "value" -- no luck.

No offense, but do you know what "value" actually is, even as a theoretical construct? The honest answer to that alone could get you very far. After that stands the question what means you have to actually identify value.

Anyway, putting my sob story aside, can anyone win without a quantifiable edge? I think a lot of people "think" they have an edge, but I doubt it.

You don't necessarily need to be able to quantify, but of course you need an edge long term to turn a profit. No way around it. Also there are people who have an edge, just not as many who claim they do. Those who do (longterm!) don't tend to brag about it much.

How do you figure an edge? It just seems anything can happen in a game and trying to predict what will happen in a game is foolish.

You (very likely) have an edge if you can sustain a certain percentage of profit per bet (a return of investment between 5% to 10% per bet would be excellent in big leagues) over a long stretch, at the very least 500-700 bets, if possible way, way more. Only way you can know, or as close as you get.

And do not be fooled by randomness. A lot less than you think is down to anyone's skill - plenty of people get fooled by random effects and events. Not just in betting and sports for that matter, it applies to everything. Humans tend to overstate their influence. Nevermind, if you can stick to 5%-10% profitability per bet over looong stretches you are doing extremely well.

Are there any money management tricks or bet selection tricks that can help close the gap between having an "edge" or not?

No. Good money management just helps you manage your money (like it says on the tin), if you're a losing punter you will lose anyway with good money management - if you are overall a winning bettor good money management can (and will) help you not go broke before you achieve success.

[tukkk]

omg, 12 years
best tip : quit
If you cant quit then go read a basic statistics book to maybe understand probabilities

[CrimsonQueen]

The only way i have been able to win is to pay a good service for picks, and then slowly build my bankroll. it took a year to find that service now i am hitting 70-80% . it gets pricey but in the long run it is worth it

This person should be permanently banned from the Think Tank.

Why would you ban this genius!? He's hitting 80%!!! That's the highest percent I've ever heard of in sports betting! What a service that is. ... Let me take a stab in the dark and say they are betting moneylines only of HUGE favorites.

[Boltafied]

Remember though, if you have the money to wage on "HUGE" favorites, you can (and WILL) reap "HUGE" rewards. We're all trying to get the best value for our plays (I agree), but we shouldn't lose sight on easy wins..... regardless of the betting price.

If you're hitting 70-80% on ANY type of bet, you're doing well especially if you can absorb the losses- which would be what? "HUGE" upsets! Don't wait for the next Buster Douglas, if you don't have to.

And no, I don't have the dough for that type of betting, but would easily do it..if I did.

Shoot, put up $5000 to hit $1000 (on -500 price for New England to beat the Arizona Cardinals at home)....yep, I'd be all over that.

[Boltafied]

In realizing what I just wrote, I want to reiterate that you BETTER be hitting most of thse BIG bets. And hoperfully, there not allllll -500 types. Heh,heh,heh

[StackinGreen]

What kind of question is this? It's like asking, "Can you make money by spending more than you take in?"

The first post has some good points but fails to realize classic points that I'm surprised continue to get regurgitated. Points like "Vegas is good/sharp/tight" ... except when huge blowouts occur ... and the lack of realization that the VERY bettors in aggregate (the market) show the "oddsmakers" where to put the lines. If you held Vegas oddsmakers to their original, early lines they'd get smushed (in NFL, for example,). By the end of the week MOST lines are very solid but even then, there are usually a few games which are ripe for the picking. I wouldn't have as high of an ROI as I do for the last 7 years in NFL if this weren't the case.

Still, intragame wagering and other minimal time/calculation offers are by definition less tight, as JOHON says. These markets are definitely worth looking at, I agree.

[BigFish]

OP -- ever heard someone in business joke that they "lose money on every transaction, but make it up in volume"?

Think about it.

[suicidekings]

I am really torn right now. I have been betting on sports for 12 years now. At first, I was throwing money away with parlays. As I matured and learned, I backed off parlays and went with straight bets. I was playing the favorites in all sports. I could never win. Just recently I have betting underdogs in all sports; some favorites as well. Still no success. I have done every system. Some systems I have paid big money for. That didn't work. I have done chases--no luck. I try to look for "value" -- no luck.

Anyway, putting my sob story aside, can anyone win without a quantifiable edge? I think a lot of people "think" they have an edge, but I doubt it. How do you figure an edge? It just seems anything can happen in a game and trying to predict what will happen in a game is foolish. Are there any money management tricks or bet selection tricks that can help close the gap between having an "edge" or not?

I need a really good theory on how to succeed at sports betting.

Keel

12 years of failure and still hoping for a miracle...? You clearly haven't learned a thing in that time. Not everyone is capable of being a successful sports bettor...

[keel44]

12 years of failure and still hoping for a miracle...? You clearly haven't learned a thing in that time. Not everyone is capable of being a successful sports bettor...

Believe me I learned a lot. I know it seems like I am either really new or really stupid. Trust me, I know what it takes except for one thing. If I can wrap my head around this specific topic, I might finally get somewhere.

Here is what I am trying to describe:

Here is a hypothetical situation.
On Wednesday June 22. The Phillies were at the Cardinals. The Phillies were favored around -155. The Cardinals were the underdogs at around +145. One could make the case for both teams based on which team had the better value. It is kind of like "in the eye of the beholder"-- there is no real answer. It seems like a logical guess for the value in the game. I know -- that's why they call it gambling.

My problem is--how do you know where your guess of "value" translates into success when the very nature of sports itself is up in the air? Maybe I don't know what value means. Why create a model if what I use to create that model is pure speculation?

By the way, I thought the Cardinals were the play given the odds. Wrong again!

[luegofuego]

Just because it has a lot of variance doesn't mean it's up in the air... Actual wins fluctuates wildly, but it always fluctuates wildly AROUND THE TRUE EXPECTED WINRATE.

Strictly speaking, handicappers are throwing incredibly wild guesses around - managing to make these guesses slightly less wild than the current market is what nets you money.

[Inspirited]

OP Do u know how to convert moneylines into probabilities? And then into no-vig probabilities? What type of model are you thinking of when you speak of model?

[Tomahawk]

If you are lucky enough to win the national lottery 10 times in a row you will make profit without having any edge.

Anyway you can have an edge if the bet pays out more then the winning possibility of your bet.

[jgilmartin]

By the way, I thought the Cardinals were the play given the odds. Wrong again!

If there is one thing to gain from this thread, it is that the fact that the Cardinals lost the game doesn't mean it was the "wrong" play. Remember, you are betting on the probability, not the outcome. You are betting that the probability of your bet winning is greater than the implied probability of the price you are paying, which in this case was 41.67% (assuming you got StL at +140).

In fact, had you bet StL at open at Pinnacle (+141), many here (self included) would argue that you actually had the right side, as the Pinnacle no-vig closer was about +140.

[keel44]

If there is one thing to gain from this thread, it is that the fact that the Cardinals lost the game doesn't mean it was the "wrong" play. Remember, you are betting on the probability, not the outcome. You are betting that the probability of your bet winning is greater than the implied probability of the price you are paying, which in this case was 41.67% (assuming you got StL at +140). In fact, had you bet StL at open at Pinnacle (+141), many here (self included) would argue that you actually had the right side, as the Pinnacle no-vig closer was about +140.

Yes. I agree, but you would need hundreds of the exact same situations (games) in order to take "advantage". Isn't every game different. I mean certainly you could bet on a couple hundred +140 situations, but is that the same as Phillies at Cardinals June 22, 2010? And how would you know it was the right side? Would it show up much later, whether you made a profit or not, overall?

[That Foreign Guy]

I think ... good... penetration is needed.

That's what she said

Why would you ban this genius!? He's hitting 80%!!! That's the highest percent I've ever heard of in sports betting! What a service that is. ... Let me take a stab in the dark and say they are betting moneylines only of HUGE favorites.

Have you never seen John Morrison spam? He hits 97%!

[Peeig]

OP,

You may have learned stuff, but nothing that applies to actually making money. I am not sure what your goal is with this thread, if its a rant, then PT is down the street............if you are actually looking to learn something, then reading this forum as well as asking for other places to look to learn would be a better approach.

Take a look at this link.............if you can't understand and/or get yourself to believe the contents of this, then i suggest you forget trying to win at sportsbetting and just bet what you can afford to lose.

http://analyticalsports.blogspot.com/2007/05/winners-who-care-who-wins.html

[Sawyer]

The only way i have been able to win is to pay a good service for picks, and then slowly build my bankroll. it took a year to find that service now i am hitting 70-80% . it gets pricey but in the long run it is worth it

Still not good as JM. He was %97, lol

[BigFish]

By the way, I thought the Cardinals were the play given the odds. Wrong again!

OP: I make plenty of money doing this (sports gambling), and I was on the Cardinals with you (+143). As some posters above have explained, the fact the wager lost does not mean you were on the wrong side, or that the wager didn't have an edge. Read what the posters above have said to you -- there is good advice in this thread. I can't say it any better than it's already been said above, so I won't belabor here. I will, however, leave you with a simple illustration that might help:

Consider a (fair) coin toss, having a 50% possibility of coming up heads, 50% tails. Someone offers you +103 on tails, for as many (or as few) tosses as you'd like, wager amount must be $100. You take the bet on tails (getting +103), for $100 per toss, and tell him you want 10 tosses at those odds. He obliges, and the coin is tossed 10 times, coming up heads 7 out of ten. You just lost $391 (i.e., lost 700, won 309 back). Does this mean you didn't have an edge??? Of course not. You did have an edge. Your expected profit on each $100 wager is $1.5. Nevertheless, things didn't go your way in those 10 wagers. In the long run, however, you can still expect to make $1.5 for every $100 wager placed, so you would be wise to wager on as many coin tosses as possible under these terms.

Now here's the harder part (but not THAT hard) -- you need to go find sports-gambling situations that are akin to a coin toss getting +$$ as in the example above. No one here is likely to hold your hand and show you how to do it (there is only so much $$ to go around for all of us), but the info is out there. What you've been doing for many years hasn't worked; you've been laying money on the coin tosses. Throw out what hasn't worked, that part is easy. Read as much on this forum (and others) as you can, and learn.

Best of luck to you.


P.S.: When I was in my 20's, I was in similar shoes as you. Tried everything, thought I knew a lot about sports, but just couldn't win. Then I discovered Internet forums, I read and researched and experimented, and now I get +103 on coin flips.

[3dm]

Great feedback BigFish that has worked for me as well

[3dm]

i am new to this forum. my last purchased picks were all moneyline bets. 6/22 Arizona -119, 6/20 Texas -185, 6/19 Boston -117, 6/18 Yanks -145, 6/18 Wash -144, 6/17 San Fran -142, and so on. so you skeptics can shove it. I have been at this for years and know a good thing when i have it. I have been on the loosing side of things and can appreciate value

[chunk]

OP: I make plenty of money doing this (sports gambling), and I was on the Cardinals with you (+143). As some posters above have explained, the fact the wager lost does not mean you were on the wrong side, or that the wager didn't have an edge. Read what the posters above have said to you -- there is good advice in this thread. I can't say it any better than it's already been said above, so I won't belabor here. I will, however, leave you with a simple illustration that might help:

Consider a (fair) coin toss, having a 50% possibility of coming up heads, 50% tails. Someone offers you +103 on tails, for as many (or as few) tosses as you'd like, wager amount must be $100. You take the bet on tails (getting +103), for $100 per toss, and tell him you want 10 tosses at those odds. He obliges, and the coin is tossed 10 times, coming up heads 7 out of ten. You just lost $391 (i.e., lost 700, won 309 back). Does this mean you didn't have an edge??? Of course not. You did have an edge. Your expected profit on each $100 wager is $1.5. Nevertheless, things didn't go your way in those 10 wagers. In the long run, however, you can still expect to make $1.5 for every $100 wager placed, so you would be wise to wager on as many coin tosses as possible under these terms.

Now here's the harder part (but not THAT hard) -- you need to go find sports-gambling situations that are akin to a coin toss getting +$$ as in the example above. No one here is likely to hold your hand and show you how to do it (there is only so much $$ to go around for all of us), but the info is out there. What you've been doing for many years hasn't worked; you've been laying money on the coin tosses. Throw out what hasn't worked, that part is easy. Read as much on this forum (and others) as you can, and learn.

Best of luck to you.


P.S.: When I was in my 20's, I was in similar shoes as you. Tried everything, thought I knew a lot about sports, but just couldn't win. Then I discovered Internet forums, I read and researched and experimented, and now I get +103 on coin flips.

Simply put and good advice. I might add that once a perceived edge becomes a reality, one can never rest because nothing lasts forever. Also fortitude, sufficient bankroll, and good management must be in play to survive the inevitable variance.

[bztips]

i am new to this forum. my last purchased picks were all moneyline bets. 6/22 Arizona -119, 6/20 Texas -185, 6/19 Boston -117, 6/18 Yanks -145, 6/18 Wash -144, 6/17 San Fran -142, and so on. so you skeptics can shove it. I have been at this for years and know a good thing when i have it. I have been on the loosing side of things and can appreciate value

Wow, I'm impressed. With a sample size of 6, that proves it right there! Please, let us in on who this great handicapper is so we can start sharing in the profits. Seriously.

[keel44]

Is not your "edge" a 50/50 shot in the dark? Many believe the Cardinals @+142 had an edge. I would also say many people thought the Phillies @-152 had and edge too. Where do they come up with that decision? It took me 3 seconds of common sense to see the Cardinals were the "right" side.

If I used the same logic and ran it through whatever filters I have in my mind for every game everyday, I should grind out a profit? Very unlikely because I really can't be sure what the right side is. How do you translate relative strength of the teams and many other relative factors into an estimated moneyline? It is like speculating on a speculation using estimates....and the bankroll is your result.

[CrimsonQueen]

You haven't really acknowledged the posts about doing really hard work...so I will just assume you want to lose.
You are never going to beat 52.38% on spreads by guessing on 'filters in your mind'.
Period.

[CrimsonQueen]

And as to how do you quantify edge- there's formulas for that.
And as to how do you know if your edge is real- you back test against out of set data. Or test going forward without betting.
and if you can't go a year without betting when you KNOW you don't have an edge, then you will lose forever because you are a compulsive gambler.

That's some sound advice.

[slapshot]

to answer what value or edge is, in sportsbetting is not an exact science.

you might say you found value based on your research/database or whatever while someone else, equally successful, can be on the opposite side based on their findings or opinion.

for example, if your research said stl to win last night.............you have 75 games in your database with several criteria matching exactly the ones in the phi @ stl game......and these factors indicated stl win.......lets say you've won 50 of these 75 games in the past....then you have created value for yourself betting stl.

a suggestion is to build up a database with games selected based on exact same criteria, record the result of the games.....thereafter analyze the data, trying to find combinations of factors leading up to a certain outcome.