[dynamite140]

I know most NFL games land on 3 and 7 the most. Then its 6, 10 and 4. However, i read this article from a website and it says

NFL Key Numbers to AvoidNow that we have an understanding of the most important key numbers, we now need to find out how we can use them to our advantage when betting the NFL. It really comes down to knowing why line movement is happening right around a key number and whether it's to your benefit to buy a 1/2 point and move the spread on or off a key number.
The oddsmakers and sportsbooks are very smart when setting NFL betting lines. They know that when they set the line for a favorite at -2.5, -3.5, -6.5, and -9.5, that most bettors will be pounding it because it looks so enticing. Well, believe it or not, that's exactly what they're wanting you to do.
They will do the exact same thing with underdogs as well. When the Oddsmaker or sportsbook sets the line for an underdog at +3.5. +4.5, +7.5, +10.5, they know they can entice more people into betting the underdog when this probably isn't the smartest side to be on.
I typically always try to be on the same side as the book because they possess so much more information than the everyday handicapper (there's a reason why they have those billion dollar casino's in Las Vegas).
I would highly encourage you to stay away from these opening lines listed above for both favorites and underdogs unless you have some kind of overwhelming evidence to go against them. Do not fall into this trap, because that's exactly what it is. As I said before, you always want to try and be on the same side as the book.



Obviously there is a mistake here because it mentions -3.5 being enticing to take the favorite. Then in the next paragraph it says +3.5 is enticing to take the favorite. The other number makes sense but can someone tell me what is the answer here. I am pretty sure what this writer meant to say was when they make the line for an underdog at +3.5, it entices them to take the underdog as oppose to taking the favorite right?

Would you say this is a good article?

[That Foreign Guy]

I know I have an uncontrollable urge to bet both sides of a game when it is 3.5

Bu yeah, I think saying the -3.5 is enticing is a mistake. The rest of the article seems to suggest that the side on the apparently unfavourable side of a key number is the one to bet.

If you believe these conclusions, you'd want to pound +2.5, +6.5, +9.5, -3.5, -4.5, -7.5 and -10.5 openers.

[antifoil]

is there anywhere i can find the information on what percentage the point difference is based on the point spread.

for example if the spread is -4, etc what the percentages are that the ends with a difference of 3, 4, 10, 6, etc.

i am not looking for what a game ends in generally.

[sharpcat]

is there anywhere i can find the information on what percentage the point difference is based on the point spread.

for example if the spread is -4, etc what the percentages are that the ends with a difference of 3, 4, 10, 6, etc.

i am not looking for what a game ends in generally.

YES.

Build a database of final scores, closing point spreads, and closing totals and do the work yourself that way you are learning along the way and you also know that your numbers are accurate.

[gameday10]

any site that has true opening lines for games?

[Pokerjoe]

Here's a secret site, only known to true sharps. I mean, it must be secret and hard to find, because so few seem to.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting+tool...alculator.aspx

[Pokerjoe]

As to OP's q, there used to be some truth to it, actually. I remember doing some work on it many years ago, and coming to that conclusion.

I think the market has sharpened since, but I don't know. So, do some work yourself, as Sharpcat suggested.

And yes, as to the +/- 3' question, the writer probably mistyppd.

[Miz]

I can't say I read your entire post but, football favorites that are a half point below a key number always make me a little uneasy, especially when a large number of bets are on that side, or there is any RLM off a key number yada yada. My personal opinion is that RLM is no longer as relevant/significant as it once may have been. The best idea is to do what Sharpcat said; namely, back-test it and find out. Evaluate the results and quantify the the probability that luck played a significant role in the results. Then post the results for all to see. Oh wait, you might not want to give away the results of your hard work.

[frankbettor]

That article is a joke. Do you look at lines first, and handicap your games AFTER you've seen the line? No. An if you do, you're a losing bettor, I guarantee.

If you handicap a game correctly first at say, Team A (-2.5) over Team B (+2.5), and took Team A at -2.5, and they WON by four, then staying away from that -2.5 was pretty stupid advice, no?

I hope you didn't pay for that information.

[donjuan]

No, it's an idiotic article.

[Patrick McIrish]

Here's a secret site, only known to true sharps. I mean, it must be secret and hard to find, because so few seem to.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting+tool...alculator.aspx

Good old Joe....

[ponyshowdown]

ive read that before. sounds like pretty decent info. if a favorite is -6.5, it makes u instinctively think of winning by a td. id like to see the actual win/loss percentages....

[dbear808]

I have compiled an EXCEL spreadsheet with all NFL games starting with the 2004 season and I could provide information related to the question asked at the start of this thread. For example, the answer to pony's question about a 6.5 favorite's winning pct ATS, they have covered 44.3% of the time since 2004. My primary motivation for creating this spreadsheet is my belief that YDS/PT is a statistic that consistently provides ATS winners. I rank each team every week based on their YDS/PT ratio. Since 2004, the team that ranks #1 for that week and plays at home covers almost 56% of the time, enough to beat the juice. If I can find time, I will post some trends for each week of the NFL season.

[yak merchant]

I have compiled an EXCEL spreadsheet with all NFL games starting with the 2004 season and I could provide information related to the question asked at the start of this thread. For example, the answer to pony's question about a 6.5 favorite's winning pct ATS, they have covered 44.3% of the time since 2004. My primary motivation for creating this spreadsheet is my belief that YDS/PT is a statistic that consistently provides ATS winners. I rank each team every week based on their YDS/PT ratio. Since 2004, the team that ranks #1 for that week and plays at home covers almost 56% of the time, enough to beat the juice. If I can find time, I will post some trends for each week of the NFL season.

So how are you using YDS per point? Are you saying that a team with 20yds/pt covers more often than a team that is 17yds/pt? or the opposite. I have over the years tracked it but couldn't for the life of me get it to predict anything. In some cases Team A is just less efficient that Team B and can't get the rock in the endzone, and in other cases they've been unlucky had some turnover etc, scored more points and have just gone further to do it. I'm not sure exactly what I tried last, but i think it was points per score, (ie. field goals versus TD's), turnovers, and number of punts ended up being much more predictive.

[Duff85]

That article is a joke. Do you look at lines first, and handicap your games AFTER you've seen the line? No. An if you do, you're a losing bettor, I guarantee.

While I agree that the article is pretty lol. I can guarantee you some of the most profitable sports bettors only look at the lines and nothing else.