I can calculate the goal expectation for each team in a given soccer match with a good level of accuracy.
However, I am struggling to convert this into a win probability and fair odds for 1X2, Asian Handicap and Total markets.
I was using Poisson but looking for a more accurate method because Poisson underestimates the probability of the draw and other low scoring scorelines.
Can anyone give me a suggestion on a more accurate probability method?