[Justin7]

When you're doing series betting, how do you adjust for this change in format?

[cobra_king]

To me this change does two things. First if a team is an "older team" the 2-3-2 set up is far more beneficial as less travelling and wear and tear on the body, especially if the trips would be of the coast to coast type variety. If this is the case i wouldn't fear a long series quite as much as the 2-2-1-1-1 scenario where going deep into the round would force me to look for a slightly higher price on the "older" team.
Secondly, some people disagree with me on this, but i believe that the 2-3-2 eliminates much of the home court/field/ice advantage as the 3 games in the middle give the underdog team a chance to be ahead in the series if it stays formful, which the other system does not. If the underdog team wins one of the first two they have a chance to sweep at home and close it out. If it remains formful after the first five games, the "dog" team is still ahead going into the last two games which i believe is a psychological advantage rather than playing from behind all the time.

*note that the term underdog is used merely to define the team without home advantage*

[Ganchrow]

I posted my Series Win Probability prior to last year's baseball playoffs, which, assuming you've handicapped the individual games may be helpful in this regard.

The following spreadsheet calculates series win probability based on the underlying win probabilities of individual games.

For the spreadsheet to run you'll need to allow Visual Basic macros when prompted.

Series Win Probability Spreadsheet

As always, please report any bugs, errors, or complaints. I'm not proud.

[Justin7]

Another thing to think about with this format is in series pricing for "win in x games" - especially 5 games...

[Ganchrow]

Another thing to think about with this format is in series pricing for "win in x games" - especially 5 games...

Yes indeed.

This was just the sort of purpose for which my Series Win Probability Spreadsheet was designed.