this is specifically for baseball....my database only has the history of opening lines. when my system finds a + expectation play i know it just should be bet overnight. however i'm not always that quick. does it make any sense to lay off any lines that have moved against my position and only bet lines that have given my side a better price? i know in theory it shouldn't matter because closing lines are sharp, but logically it seems to make sense. any thoughts?
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a man's got to do what a man's got to do but seriously, take it from me your wasting your time on any stat related system. the books have the same stats and are more educated in which ones are worthwhile, they then compose their lines, tweak them with the help of geek sports experts and then add in their vig. When your up against this its easy to see why 99% of bettors are ******.
the only way to beat this is work out where the books stand, see if there's a weakness in their position and find the best price that exploits this. In baseball totals for example, its better passing if their not giving you the fail safe. like the whole figure to fall back on a push. the 3 in nfl. etc etc.
without a doubt your not going to beat it by using the same stats as the people your betting with.Comment -
its not at all what you think it is, it has nothing to do with using stats to predict outcomes of games. it's more about predicting when books have to adjust off the true line to account for betting action. my system is a predictor of markets not games. if the books just set the perfect line for every game and stuck to it i wouldn't be betting and surely be losing. luckily, how the market is going to bet forces their hand in certain spots. markets on the whole are generally efficient, however baseball MLs are far more efficient than totals markets. And certain subsets of both are NOT efficient
this is exactly what i do; find when the books are forced into unfavorable lines. but the books still making money on these games of course because of the betting distributionthe only way to beat this is work out where the books stand, see if there's a weakness in their position and find the best price that exploits this.
baseball totals account for a majority of my betting and this seems ridiculous. i would never ever pass on a positive expectation bet because its not a whole number. I guess you mean if its just 10s of basis points above expectation to only to bet in that situation if its a solid number?In baseball totals for example, its better passing if their not giving you the fail safe. like the whole figure to fall back on a push. the 3 in nfl. etc etc.Last edited by Lord and Master; 06-02-11, 04:53 PM.Comment -
-230 says Chubnut tells everyone it's impossible to win so that he can keep the "secret" safe to himself. Baseball is as easy as **** to beat imo but maybe that's just because I'm smart. That said, if your "model" doesn't compute overnight and you are asking dumb questions(the one about betting a market move against you) then you are probably not good. But seriously, CHUB, stfu about the sportsbooks being godlike. I bet that's why pinnacle's baseball lines typically move 10 cents. I have NO model to date but I absolutely smash bets on Red Sox games(smash=huge win % and beating the no vig cl by avg. 4 cents) because I'm a super-fan of them and because I know what to look for AND because I'm very familiar with sb market behavior.Comment -
If you aren't using new information on game day, and your model wins, you should bet them as soon as possible.Comment -
say you found a 55% winning system (we'll use +100 as average ml in this case), that particular system consists of 45% and 65% plays at overnight rates, in the morning prices have move against you on 65% plays and improved on the 45% plays, do you think you still have an age?Comment
