wind and MLB totals

[LegitBet]

will a more windy stadium always increase the expected total?
watching the Met game now 1pm start thurs 6/2 highly windy in all directions, yet total closed at 7 1/2.

did the linesmakers miss this one, as i know cubs totals are often delayed for exactly this reason, right?

thanks

[wiffle]

not if it's blowing in

[LegitBet]

so are homeruns the only concern with wind?
I would think high wind in any direction creates a less predictable environment with in which to play defense?

how am i doing?

[horsiehung]

good question my friend....i would think the books missed the mets game, as the score is like 7-3 or something halfway through

[CHUBNUT]

Ask yourself this question Would you be posting if this game ended 2-1, highly unlikely. probably you would go to bed thinking how sharp these books are. The thing is its pointless discussing a one off event, especially in the think tank where you might upset the cerebral thinking of the elite in sports betting prowess.

Baseball is more random than any other sport except maybe tiddlywinks and a sound understanding of randomness goes a long way in sports betting. Instead of reading books on how to win on sports betting, concentrate reading all you can on randomness and how your brain gets kidded into certain thinking.

[TomG]

Flyball Ratio. HRs. Windspeed. Regression. Profit.

[JustinBieber]

TomG makes it look so easy

[Sawyer]

Man, you should change your nick asap

Horrible nick Justin!

[LegitBet]

So cubs totals are higher on windier days, but any other example isn't valid?

[beeps220]

So cubs totals are higher on windier days, but any other example isn't valid?

Not if the wind is blowing in, Wrigley is notorious for high scoring affairs when wind is blowing out and lower when blowing in. But this is baseball so obviously so many other factors would come into play, ground ball/fly ball pitcher, etc.

[LegitBet]

Not if the wind is blowing in, Wrigley is notorious for high scoring affairs when wind is blowing out and lower when blowing in. But this is baseball so obviously so many other factors would come into play, ground ball/fly ball pitcher, etc.

Thanks this makes sense.
It seems that very windy conditions cause defensive problems regardless of the directions.

[evo34]

Flyball Ratio. HRs. Windspeed. Regression. Profit.

Curious where you get your historical wind (and presumably temp.) data?

[LT Profits]

Wrigley Field is the lone exception because it is like playing in two different ballparks depending on which way the wind is blowing, but at the other 29 stadiums, the long term total variance is rarely more than one run per game when the wind is blowing in or out, so it can easily be incorporated into the line. That is why Wrigley is the only stadium where totals aren't posted until late.

In other words, outside of Chicago, wind is overrated as a capping tool. I am not saying it is totally useless, as even getting a half-run edge by betting either overnight or very early morning on windy days at other stadiums is still huge, but after the books adjust, usually early in the day, then wind becomes meaningless.

[LT Profits]

Curious where you get your historical wind (and presumably temp.) data?

Covers goes back to 1999

That's winds in every direction, not temps. They do have separate pages for Sunny/Clear and Cloudy/rain.

[bulichme]

Thanks LT. Before I understood this I was always upset as to why this occurred.

[LegitBet]

Good job guys.
Isn't it nice when a thread goes like this and we really learn something and guys like LT and Tom are kind with their wisdom.

[evo34]

Well, that's assuming that books and the market are adjusting exactly correctly for each wind/stadium situtation. Of course, in reality, they don't. So there is money to be made by carefully incorporating weather into you totals model.

Wrigley Field is the lone exception because it is like playing in two different ballparks depending on which way the wind is blowing, but at the other 29 stadiums, the long term total variance is rarely more than one run per game when the wind is blowing in or out, so it can easily be incorporated into the line. That is why Wrigley is the only stadium where totals aren't posted until late. In other words, outside of Chicago, wind is overrated as a capping tool. I am not saying it is totally useless, as even getting a half-run edge by betting either overnight or very early morning on windy days at other stadiums is still huge, but after the books adjust, usually early in the day, then wind becomes meaningless.

[CHUBNUT]

ask yourself a question. if you were a major book betting tonights baseball, what would you do to make sure think tank posters wouldnt take advantage of you.
not bother with injury reports, most recent form or what the weathers going to be.
hard to imagine you not doing this yet fully expect books like pinny to nonchalantly throw out haphazard numbers for sharps with 3 TV screens to take advantage. lets have some reality.

[dialup_king]

there are still edges chub

[evo34]

You're right....Pinnacle has created the perfect weather model. No sharp bettors make money with superior betting analysis. Also, no small hedge funds make money, because if there were new and better trading models to be made, Goldman would already be doing them.

Do you even bet?

ask yourself a question. if you were a major book betting tonights baseball, what would you do to make sure think tank posters wouldnt take advantage of you. not bother with injury reports, most recent form or what the weathers going to be. hard to imagine you not doing this yet fully expect books like pinny to nonchalantly throw out haphazard numbers for sharps with 3 TV screens to take advantage. lets have some reality.

[evo34]

Covers goes back to 1999 That's winds in every direction, not temps. They do have separate pages for Sunny/Clear and Cloudy/rain.

Thanks, that's a good resource. But you can't run a regression without game-by-game wind data, which Covers does not have.

[CHUBNUT]

You're right....Pinnacle has created the perfect weather model. No sharp bettors make money with superior betting analysis. Also, no small hedge funds make money, because if there were new and better trading models to be made, Goldman would already be doing them.

Do you even bet?

you keep modelling sonny and leave betting to the realists

[CHUBNUT]

there are still edges chub

Of course but dont be looking for them in christmas crackers.

[evo34]

you keep modelling sonny and leave betting to the realists

Lose the fruity emoticons, and consider moving on to a more appropriate forum for rank amateurs. If you are that scared of sportsbooks, you have no business commenting on how to beat them.

[constrictor]

if wind is blowing into a batters direction it should be harder to hit