[subs]

hello every 1 - hope that your wagers are going well for you

just a quick maths question?

i have found 6 wong-able plays that i like and played every 2, 3, 4 and 6 teamer teasers for every combo.

so far 4 teams have won .

i still have Kansas city +8 and cinci + 8.5. the maths is getting a little complicated but i am considering a hedge and play for the middles on the last 2.

i can get their opponents the brown -2.5 @ 1.73 and the ravens -2.5 @ 1.909

can any1 PLEASE PLEASE help me with the maths? would hedging be - EV and how can i quantify this.

Another question is that i have heard that you will get negative attention from the books if you play teasers @ + EV, what is the best way to disguise this and not lose too much EV. i play mostly live soccer (up well in the last 8 months) so will be wagering other sports too.

thanks so much for taking the time to help, much appreciated - i will be sure to send points for any help here.

[Pancho sanza]

If you can let me know:

A) Your current bankroll
B) What you stand to win on the teasers, seperate these by amounts if KC covers +8 and If Cinn Covers +8.5

I can answer it for you.

You can use fractional amounts if you don't want to spill the beans.

[subs]

hi Pancho sanza

thanks for the reply. as you can guess from the figures below my next move will be to factor my bet sizes according to kelly which i should do by next week's wagers. i am now seeing how much better i would have done if i had worked it out properly, and i have realised that i missed a few combination out.

Kansas and cinci lose = -$120
Kansas loses = $450
cinci loses = $550
everything wins = $1700

i made a bit of a mess of things but there it is....

my bank is $15,000 but as i'm new to teasers and so i'm taking it really easy so far. but half kelly next week.

i am really interested in the maths involved so that i can get better at this. are there any books that you can recommend?

thank you very much Pancho

[Pancho sanza]

Optimal hedge is zero, do nothing.

On a 15K roll with only $120 at risk, and less than 10 % chance of actually losing the $120, you don't hedge here.

I'll do up a spreadsheet and attach it later.

[subs]

thanks Pancho - really look forward to the spreadsheet

would very much like to know how you did the maths here so i will look very closely at anything you can help me with.

also i am only losing $120 if both teams lose but will obviously lose my potential pot of $1700.

much appreciated

[subs]

thanks pancho - and thanks cicnci. guess there are some happy BS teaser players - well done fellas. gonna take the wife out for dinner and buy my daughter some toys.

you know i hate gambling, its just treat it like work and i need the money......

when i was 18 my mom took me to a casino - i lost my whole months minimum wage in 10 mins. i have never enjoyed it since then. thanks mom good lesson.

[Pancho sanza]

A small hedge was warranted, my intial answer was a guess, so you saved a bit of money.

[dimon]

can I ask you what teams did you play that all but 2 won on the 18th...most college football???

[jolmscheid]

I have been reading up on the WONG teasers...if they are truly +EV then why do the books offer them? Thanks for the help!

[dimon]

they do not offer wong teasers...but they do offer 6 point teasers...and it is upon you to play them

[sharpcat]

Basic strategy teasers in NCAAF are more likely than not going to be -EV because the 3 does not hit anywhere near as frequently in NCAAF compared to the NFL.

I would recommend that you not blindly tease the same numbers in NCAAF that you would tease in the NFL.

[sharpcat]

I have been reading up on the WONG teasers...if they are truly +EV then why do the books offer them? Thanks for the help!

BS teasers can quickly become -EV if you do not understand what you are doing and why you are doing it.

[jolmscheid]

BS teasers can quickly become -EV if you do not understand what you are doing and why you are doing it.

Well the basic premise is just teasing across the 3 and the 7 correct? So basically teasing teams that are +1.5 to +2.5 and teams that are -7.5 to -8.5 and teasing them 6 points to catch both the 3 and the 7 since they are numbers that are landed on at a high rate in the NFL...

[That Foreign Guy]

I have been reading up on the WONG teasers...if they are truly +EV then why do the books offer them? Thanks for the help!

Because every other teaser is a sucker bet and BS teasers can be too.

[subs]

can I ask you what teams did you play that all but 2 won on the 18th...most college football???

yea sure - i played LSU, georga tech, arkansas and miami ohio and NFL cinci and kansas

BS teasers can quickly become -EV if you do not understand what you are doing and why you are doing it.

Sharpcat (or any other sharps here) do you think it will be +EV if i play only the best ratios that i can find? are these called V spread? if i combine the 2 will i be pushing myself into +EV again?

so if the totals are really low and i am selective?

the other thing is will i need to disguise these a bit or play sides so that i do not get tossed out of the teasers or will i be ok?
i have been scalping and got tossed from 2 UK books already.


Pancho sanza thank you so much that excel is awesome. i have enrolled in an advanced excel course and i am going through the python and scraping tutorial so i'm not being lazy its just my skills are not there yet but they will be.

i sent you 100 points - much appreciated .

[subs]

edit sorry

[Peregrine Stoop]

ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww at playing G Tech and Arkansas this past weekend

I'm totally confused by only betting $120 out of a $15k bankroll on BS teasers, but it's a good thing you are betting so little with the teaser legs you are including and not including.

[djiddish98]

anyone put in some thought on teasers that are NCAA + modest total (< 50) + teams with NFL-level of FG attempts?

I might investigate, but if someone already has, let me know if it's a dead end.

I also assume that while there are more college fball games available, the number of games that meet the criteria is low.

[hutennis]

BS teasers can quickly become -EV if you do not understand what you are doing and why you are doing it.

What are pitfalls?

Over paying must be one. What else?

[subs]

Peregrine Stoop

ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww at playing G Tech and Arkansas this past weekend

I'm totally confused by only betting $120 out of a $15k bankroll on BS teasers, but it's a good thing you are betting so little with the teaser legs you are including and not including.

thanks Peregrine Stoop, i am going to include only teams with a low total. if i do this will i still be -EV. BTW i think that u misunderstood -$120 was if only 4 NCAA teams won and no NFL wins (out of 6 only 2 were NFL). i bet relatively more on the NFL teasers and on teasers with NFL teams in the mix. what is the max % of your bank that you'd bet on these every week?

i'll give all my remaining points away for a truthful yes or no or will owe 100 points to any1 who backs that up with some good data. some1 who is a pro please tell me if i'm still -EV on this. if you do not want to on the forum just message me "no" or "yes" - pretty please.

thanks fellas.

[Peregrine Stoop]

the best you'll get are break-even legs IMO
however, I still find some use for break-even legs to a teaser

[subs]

thanks Peregrine Stoop - sent all my points.