[stefan084]

I've been trying to do this (sports betting) long term but have been failing. I have read that my bet size should not be more than 2% or so of my total bankroll, what is an acheivable or desirable goal that "pros" shoot for per month? I think I need to rethink my expectations as I try this once again. Any help would be greatly appreciated

[Sawyer]

%10-20 in my opinion.

A good capper should be able to make at least 5 Units (risking 1 unit per game) every month. Of course, you can have wild months when you made 10+ units but remember you will have losing months as well. So 5-6 should be good number in my opinion. If you risk %2 of your bankroll on each play, then it's equal to %10 increase. Unfortunately, majority of bettors are unpatient. I'm sure that %99.9 of sports bettors will not be satisfied with a %10-15 monthly increase..but in fact, it's a perfect investment.

[trixtrix]

-100%

[sharpcat]

%10-20 in my opinion.

A good capper should be able to make at least 5 Units (risking 1 unit per game) every month. Of course, you can have wild months when you made 10+ units but remember you will have losing months as well. So 5-6 should be good number in my opinion. If you risk %2 of your bankroll on each play, then it's equal to %10 increase. Unfortunately, majority of bettors are unpatient. I'm sure that %99.9 of sports bettors will not be satisfied with a %10-15 monthly increase..but in fact, it's a perfect investment.

This IMO is awful advice

Realistically speaking I am happy to return 2% of my overall amount wagered per month and would be very happy if I saw a 5% profit. So if I wagered $100,000 in a month I would hope to see back $102,000-$105,000.

I am starting to think BigDaddyQH is back.

[sneak-a-peak]

After a few years of wagering I really don't like to look at it on a month to month basis because of the natural high and low swings that will take place thru the course of the entire year.

I don't care what anyone says, you cannot win every single month year in and year out so obviously you're going to have a few months in the red. You of course just have to make sure the green months out weigh the red ones at the end of the year.

With that said I am always happy with any return of above 20% at the end of the year. The more the merrier of course. Some may look at 20% and say that aint shit but the key is to be profitable. 20% is a great return for your money anywhere else in the world so why not sports wagering?

The more cash I can accumulate and invest into this the better off I'll be.

Currently for the year I'm up 30% and I have had a pretty rough 6 week run lately so 6 weeks ago It was closer to 45% but like I said earlier you have to expect the swings.

[roasthawg]

After a few years of wagering I really don't like to look at it on a month to month basis because of the natural high and low swings that will take place thru the course of the entire year.

I don't care what anyone says, you cannot win every single month year in and year out so obviously you're going to have a few months in the red. You of course just have to make sure the green months out weigh the red ones at the end of the year.

With that said I am always happy with any return of above 20% at the end of the year. The more the merrier of course. Some may look at 20% and say that aint shit but the key is to be profitable. 20% is a great return for your money anywhere else in the world so why not sports wagering?

The more cash I can accumulate and invest into this the better off I'll be.

Currently for the year I'm up 30% and I have had a pretty rough 6 week run lately so 6 weeks ago It was closer to 45% but like I said earlier you have to expect the swings.

This, almost word for word. Month to month is too small a sample.... and anything under 20% for the year makes the stresses of sports gambling not worth it.

[brumbies]

%10-20 in my opinion. A good capper should be able to make at least 5 Units (risking 1 unit per game) every month. Of course, you can have wild months when you made 10+ units but remember you will have losing months as well. So 5-6 should be good number in my opinion. If you risk %2 of your bankroll on each play, then it's equal to %10 increase. Unfortunately, majority of bettors are unpatient. I'm sure that %99.9 of sports bettors will not be satisfied with a %10-15 monthly increase..but in fact, it's a perfect investment.

What a poor advice. I am not shocked though, coming from you. Didn't you advise taking a break during the all star game and not betting anything? Instead you went and created a thread on your Japanese baseball betting picks. Too funny.

[SolidDala]

99%, including me have a to small sample size to give an correct answer for this. Sharpcat i am sure is in the 1% and have the most realistic answer.. 10-20% seems decent at first glance but digging deeper one would see that this is just variance cause of a small sample size.. One should always be optimistic though

I rather have 2% return from 10,000 bets then have 20% from 100 bets just saying

[Wrecktangle]

non-negative.

Until you can build a small (even tiny) Bankroll into a larger one over time, you should not even be thinking about how much you should be making a month. And you will hardly ever have consistent month-over-month returns anyway. They will always vary, sometime radically. Get your capping and money management to where it can at least sustain itself without cash infusions. This is not like getting returns on a CD that you can "bank" on.

[bauerranch]

Great thread with great advice
I just want to break even with a small percentage as my bankroll grows possibly 20% year end
My problem is when I go for the big money or big bet I always lose- that you can bank on that

[Peregrine Stoop]

depends where you are at in your sportsbetting career in addition to every good answer already given.
Most players are small or medium pimpin'
In that scenario, it's rather easy to always be on a deposit or redeposit bonus with manageable rollovers that will boost the ROI for every bet by a little bit.

[Domestic]

Breaking even is winning, JJ will back me up on this.

[DukeJohn]

After a few years of wagering I really don't like to look at it on a month to month basis because of the natural high and low swings that will take place thru the course of the entire year.

I don't care what anyone says, you cannot win every single month year in and year out so obviously you're going to have a few months in the red. You of course just have to make sure the green months out weigh the red ones at the end of the year.

With that said I am always happy with any return of above 20% at the end of the year. The more the merrier of course. Some may look at 20% and say that aint shit but the key is to be profitable. 20% is a great return for your money anywhere else in the world so why not sports wagering?

The more cash I can accumulate and invest into this the better off I'll be.

Currently for the year I'm up 30% and I have had a pretty rough 6 week run lately so 6 weeks ago It was closer to 45% but like I said earlier you have to expect the swings.

Sneak-a-peak has your best answer

Month to month is just not something I bother with, however I do look at Season to Season, meaning the MLB Season and then NHL, NBA Season. I like to get a 25% return on my Bankroll size, going by what my bankroll was at the beginning of the Season in MLB and then I would like to get another 25% by the end of the NHL, NBA Season, if I make 50% for the year I am extremely happy. Of course I have added the NFL this year, so we shall see. I only made just over 19% during the MLB season so, I have a little catching up to do.

BoL,

[infamousbacardi]

Of course this depends on your bankroll...if you start with $200, ending up 5% for an MLB season isn't much to care about...

My point being, if you aren't going to try and do it with a large amount of money, I wouldn't try and worry about "professional' attributes...those guys do it for a living, that's how they eat...if you are just putting a low amount of money toward it, you are going to have to start small...If you begin with $1k, in order to live off the money you end up making, if you did it patiently, it could take more than a few years.

Good luck!!

[Shonner]

I've been trying to do this (sports betting) long term but have been failing. I have read that my bet size should not be more than 2% or so of my total bankroll, what is an acheivable or desirable goal that "pros" shoot for per month? I think I need to rethink my expectations as I try this once again. Any help would be greatly appreciated

anyone that deposits 2% of their bankroll is an idiot because there's no book i'd trust holding that much $ for me. don't listen to that bankroll BS, it's just a bunch of guys trying to talk smart. just set an amt you are comfortable wagering and stick to it, don't vary off it more than 25%

[dimon]

10-20% is very good

[chaka]

betting recklessly with small amounts(assumes small defined bankroll) is only going to make it worse when one finally has a sizable bankroll to increase wager size. the bad habits wont go away just because there is more money to risk

most will never have enough time or money to achieve professional status but there is no reason for the rest of us amateurs to not learn and apply the same knowledge and methodologies to our relative bankrolls until more time/money or both are available


at the same time its unreasonable to turn $ 100 into professional status so enjoy the ride as long as you can make it last

[That Foreign Guy]

its unreasonable to turn $ 100 into professional status so enjoy the ride as long as you can make it last

No it isn't, you just have to be patient and a winner.

OK yeah it is unreasonable.

[stefan084]

thanks everyone for the advice--i can see that i probably don't have enough money for this. its still fun though--in an agonizing kind of way

[donjuan]

This IMO is awful advice

Realistically speaking I am happy to return 2% of my overall amount wagered per month and would be very happy if I saw a 5% profit. So if I wagered $100,000 in a month I would hope to see back $102,000-$105,000.

I am starting to think BigDaddyQH is back.

Return on bankroll does not equal ROI. Say you have a $100k bankroll and make 1000 $1k bets in a month and have an ROI of 2%. You've just made $20k and have a 2% ROI but you have a 20% return on bankroll.

[andysinvestment]

Someone making only 2% per month needs to take a close look in the mirror and ask themselves if it is even worth it to be a sports better.

If you are actually betting 2% of your bankroll (like the original post states) on every bet you place, and you bet a lot of times per month (50 to 100 times) than a 2% return means you're probably not very good.

Let's say you flip a coin 100 times and you guess "heads" every time. You could easily get it right 52 times and wrong 48 times. That is a realistic scenario. But that doesn't make you a professional coin guesser. You got it right 2 more times than the mathematical odds said you would have. But let's face it. You just got lucky. That's what's happening to people if they are making only 2% per month in sports betting while placing a lot of bets per month.

Now lets say you flip the coin 100 times again and you pick the correct side of the coin 60 times. Now we're talking. And you're able to do this almost every time you flip the coin 100 times. Now you can say you are good at what you do.

I'm not saying it's bad to have a return of 2% per month. If you're making money that's great. But 2% ?!! Come on. Unless you have $100,000 and you're willing to "gamble" it, I would never settle for 2% a month. Especially since that 2% could just as easily become -2% per month.

I'm just saying Sawyer's post is a bit more reasonable for pros.

[That Foreign Guy]

2% return on risk amount does not = 2% return on bankroll. If you risk 5x your bankroll you're making 10% return on bankroll.

Even a 2% return on bankroll per month is 27% growth in a year with no drawdowns. That's really good.

[andysinvestment]

2% return on risk amount does not = 2% return on bankroll. If you risk 5x your bankroll you're making 10% return on bankroll.

Umm... thanks for the math lesson. But nobody anywhere in this thread mentioned a "2% return on risk amount". Everyone has been talking about monthly returns on their bankroll.

[sharpcat]

Umm... thanks for the math lesson. But nobody anywhere in this thread mentioned a "2% return on risk amount". Everyone has been talking about monthly returns on their bankroll.

Nobody mentioned only making a 2% return on your bank roll either

2% return on "amount wagered" is completely different than "return on bankroll"

As previously stated I am happy to make a 2% gain on my total amount wagered as TFG pointed out if I wagered $500,000 in a month out of my $100,000 bankroll I would expect to profit about $10,000.

The true answer to this question is that your monthly gains will rarely be consistent because it all depends how many valuable wagers you find each month, so in october I would expect to profit more than in may.

[statnerds]

I've been trying to do this (sports betting) long term but have been failing.

Why?

Are you tracking every play you made? Where are you losing the most? Any areas where you are winning?

A line like your opener suggests that you are either in one helluva a long bad streak while betting good numbers, or are making more -EV than +EV wagers.

Where are you getting your plays? Capping your own games, tailing guys or a little of both?

Until you know where you are winning, losing, have an edge all this other talk of ROI and Return on Bankroll is moot.

[JOHON8]

Also take into account the time you waste on making plays.

If someone spends 2000 units to win 400 units at the end of the year is it worth it? That's like putting $200k on a -500 line to win $40k. If someone has $200k to spend over 12 months is $40k really a profitable outcome? And this is all assuming the capper is solid to make that many units in the first place. Think of how much time is used to make a %20 profit, if someone has a salary more than $40k per year the time spent working a regular job IMO would be more profitable. Am I wrong?

This is why I think gamblers who make regular plays and have a regular unit system are partly doing this as a hobby/recreation. Someone show me an example of a person who has made more units than they have wagered, if there is an example out there it would be rare.

[Thremp]

wtf

[statnerds]

wtf

it is rare for me to agree, but

wtf
X
2

[donjuan]

Also take into account the time you waste on making plays.

If someone spends 2000 units to win 400 units at the end of the year is it worth it? That's like putting $200k on a -500 line to win $40k. If someone has $200k to spend over 12 months is $40k really a profitable outcome? And this is all assuming the capper is solid to make that many units in the first place. Think of how much time is used to make a %20 profit, if someone has a salary more than $40k per year the time spent working a regular job IMO would be more profitable. Am I wrong?

This is why I think gamblers who make regular plays and have a regular unit system are partly doing this as a hobby/recreation. Someone show me an example of a person who has made more units than they have wagered, if there is an example out there it would be rare.

I leaned towards Thremp's response but I'll be nice.

1. No one has a 20% ROI who is trying to make as much money as possible. It's much lower.
2. Anyone doing this for a living bets a helluva lot more than 200k/year. Most do that in a month with ease.
3. Betting 200k on a -500 line is nothing like placing thousands of bets adding up to 200k and being up 40k. I would tell you to do the math, but clearly you don't know anything about math.
4. Ok, I give up. Last paragraph is lololololololol.

[Data]

I leaned towards Thremp's response but I'll be nice.

I am glad seeing you coming of age.

Speaking about the subject mater, both numbers, whatever people call ROI and whatever they call ROB (Bankroll) are pretty much meaningless as the whole discussion around it. Seriously, I would not even post here but celebrating the new donjuan was a worthy cause, I guess.

[Thremp]

^

lol

[statictheory]

Just a note about comparing annual returns to the stock market. I dont want to burst anyone's bubble
but Investing is an idea sold to the public. Although there are "Investment professionals", the real pros in the market are on the floor and in the pits of the various exchanges and they ARE NOT INVESTING. They
are making anywhere from 10-20% or more on total money at risk and have much higher annual returns.
If you want to compare against the stock market, you need to look at the pros rather than what average square money is making using the total market averages. Its apples and oranges.
Thats like looking at football and sayinyg the average bettor who took favorites this year was 50-70 against the spread and lost an average of xyz %. doesnt work
sorry, but the pros in the stock market make more money and dont have to worry for the most part about whether they can make a large bet.. So if you made 10% annual and your happy because you think you beat what pros made in the market.... think again.

[Thremp]

No. That is dumb. You need to compare to alternatives that you have access to. Not some theoretical mumbo jumbo.

[statictheory]

No. That is dumb. You need to compare to alternatives that you have access to. Not some theoretical mumbo jumbo.

? HUH ?
All I know is that i see so called pro sports bettors comparing their returns to market averages, and that is dumb.

[u21c3f6]

I've been trying to do this (sports betting) long term but have been failing. I have read that my bet size should not be more than 2% or so of my total bankroll, what is an acheivable or desirable goal that "pros" shoot for per month? I think I need to rethink my expectations as I try this once again. Any help would be greatly appreciated

IMO, this is putting the cart before the horse assuming the goal is to be profitable.

First, to be profitable, you must find an edge. No edge, no wager!

Once you have a verified edge, Kelly (or some fraction of) can help you determine the % of your bankroll to wager. The size of your bankroll, the % to wager and the number of wagers that you find in a month will determine the amount of profit you can produce.

To increase your profit, you must either increase your starting bankroll and/or find an edge that results in greater profits and/or find more wagers that have an edge and/or allow your bankroll to compound.

I do not have a monthly monetary goal per se. However, at certain points I draw down my bankroll to stay within my comfort zone and to stay within certain limits and or available market liquidity.

Joe.