Hey guys. I would appreciate some help on this. Let's say you have a system / way of picking games that is +EV and after 50 games of betting 1 unit, you are down. Would it be a bad idea to bump up the wagers to 1.5 units for the next 50 games, and if back in the black move back to 1 unit. I ask this because if you have a +EV bet, would this be a way to recover losses quicker without actually "chasing"? I understand that one can just flat bet and get back into the black IF they have a +EV system, however I was just wondering if doing a slow unit progression like this if you are down is ok to do if you know your bets are +EV?
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Thanks ahead of time for the insight guys! I will be looking forward to some replies on this..
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Bad idea.
If you are down, your risk size should go down, not up.Comment -
Thanks for the insight Justin...so basically I should just Re-Calculate my 1% Unit size everyday??? That is the Best way and safest way to do it?Comment -
Apply the Kelly formula to determine bet size based on your edge. This will behave the way Justin described such that your bet size will be smaller when you are down.Comment -
For what it is worth. I say bet 1 unit. If you are down after 50 games or a week or two,raise it to 1.5 units and then 2 units. Eventually you will make money despite losing more games than winningComment -
the principle that you want to use is simple:
- increase the base bet and increase the risk.
So, if on the long period you are a winner you can try to make bigger the base unit.
Take attention, "long period" for me mean 500-1000 bets.
If you want to try i suggest to you to bunp up the wagers to 1.2 units (1.5 units is too high).Comment -
What you are proposing is in essence a martingale system http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)
Your system is risking more when you are loosing and less when you are winning (which when I put to myself in that form, sounded dumb and kamikaze). The sensible strategy is actually to do the opposite, to bet more when you win and less when you loose.
The question you should ask is how much of your bank roll you want to to risk per bet. If you are happy betting 1.5 units then bet that whether you win or loose. Better yet, read about the Kelly Criterion which is well documented in this forum.Comment -
Think of long terms waves. Up and down, up and down. You need to win more money on an up-swing and/or lose less on a down-swing. So yes, recalculate your unit size after every 50 bets or so. There is nothing worse than raising your risk and having your cold trend continue.
By the way, the longer you wait before you recalculate your unit size, the less likely you'll catch the small fluctuations within your wave pattern. That is a good thing.Comment -
I think it's a bad idea. I don't say you should recalculate the unit daily.
For example I used to recalculate the unit after a 20 unit win or a 20 unit loss. So it's actually advised to bet lower after a losing streak and bet higher after a winning streak.Comment -
every game is independent, you can´t just decide, that since ive had a losing streak .. now im going to have a winning streak, therefore im going to bet 1.5x the normal amount
Like 99% of people have suggested here, you should decide your unit size based on your bankroll management
For example, lets say person A has a bankroll of 1000$ and bets win or to win 20$ , now when he loses 200$ but still has proven that he is +EV, i dont see the problem in depositing an add-on of 400$ to get to 1200$ and then bet 24$Comment
