Hedging Question for a Final Tomorrow

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  • JOHON8
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-28-10
    • 7712

    #1
    Hedging Question for a Final Tomorrow
    It's a soccer final tomorrow Porto/Braga. 500 on Porto to win title 2.40 (+140). The line now sits at around 1.20.

    Hedging bets I'm thinking about:

    1. Game line at +1 goals for Braga (2.16 or +116) . This cashes the draw and any Braga win, even if Braga lose in regulation by 1 goal, it pushes and I still cash the original title bet.

    2. under 2.5 goals (2.04 +104) for regulation. This covers a wide range of scorelines and results that favor both sides and my original bet. Only downside is if Braga scores 2 or more goals which is very unlikely.

    There are other hedging opprotunities I'm looking at but if anyone has a suggestion it would be helpful thanks guys.
    Last edited by JOHON8; 05-17-11, 03:28 PM.
  • Blax0r
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-13-10
    • 688

    #2
    Assuming #1 is a perfect hedge, you'll lock in a 144.44 profit if you put 555.56 on +1 Braga.

    Not too shabby imo. However, if you're very confident in Porto winning (ie, far more than the implied 41.67%), I would just stick w/ that.
    Comment
    • escoot
      SBR High Roller
      • 12-02-09
      • 190

      #3
      Doesn't seem like enough money in which to hedge here unless you believe Braga +1, or the under are in themselves +EV bets
      Comment
      • JOHON8
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-28-10
        • 7712

        #4
        Originally posted by Blax0r
        Assuming #1 is a perfect hedge, you'll lock in a 144.44 profit if you put 555.56 on +1 Braga. Not too shabby imo. However, if you're very confident in Porto winning (ie, far more than the implied 41.67%), I would just stick w/ that.
        Originally posted by escoot
        Doesn't seem like enough money in which to hedge here unless you believe Braga +1, or the under are in themselves +EV bets
        thanks for the help guys.

        I decided to either hedge live or hedge on the current winner line at 1.20.
        Comment
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