1. 09-13-10 04:19 AM #1
    TakeIt
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    High Spread: Low Total?

    There were quite a few examples this weekend of a high point spread and around a 50 point total.

    It just seems odd that if a team is favored by 27.5 then the total should be a little higher than 50,51,52.

    In more cases than not the dog covered.

    Just a thought.
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  2. 09-13-10 06:34 AM #2
    That Foreign Guy
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    If a team is favoured by 27.5 then it's unlikely their opponents will score much. This means it's unlikely you will get a very high total (since it takes time not to score).
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  3. 09-13-10 07:28 AM #3
    Domestic
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    Quote Originally Posted by That Foreign Guy View Post
    If a team is favoured by 27.5 then it's unlikely their opponents will score much. This means it's unlikely you will get a very high total (since it takes time not to score).
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  4. 09-13-10 03:21 PM #4
    Peregrine Stoop
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    you've just stumbled upon the concept of correlated parlays OP
    well done
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  5. 09-14-10 12:05 AM #5
    TakeIt
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    Quote Originally Posted by That Foreign Guy View Post
    If a team is favoured by 27.5 then it's unlikely their opponents will score much. This means it's unlikely you will get a very high total (since it takes time not to score).
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but if the total will be low then it appears that the dog is more likely to cover.

    Here are the ones I followed: 20+ point spread with a total of 55 or less.

    Dogs won 12, Favorites won 7 (Plus 4.3U)

    Meaningless sample, but I'm going to keep my eye on it.
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  6. 09-14-10 01:34 AM #6
    Peregrine Stoop
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    look at the back data and test
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  7. 09-14-10 04:07 AM #7
    That Foreign Guy
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    Quote Originally Posted by TakeIt View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but if the total will be low then it appears that the dog is more likely to cover.

    Here are the ones I followed: 20+ point spread with a total of 55 or less.

    Dogs won 12, Favorites won 7 (Plus 4.3U)

    Meaningless sample, but I'm going to keep my eye on it.
    Don't keep your eye on it if you think you have an angle, get old data and backtest.

    But yeah, this is a widely known correlated parlay and the problem is with more in finding books that will take it than in working out if it is a good system.
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  8. 09-14-10 07:59 AM #8
    Wrecktangle
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    another thread started in the wrong place.

    read the label on this soup can.
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  9. 09-19-10 04:05 AM #9
    subs
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    which books actually take these and then don't stiff u?

    any1 know?
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