I've got a meeting with two economics professors tomorrow. Any questions for them?

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  • ClimbSomeRocks
    SBR MVP
    • 11-04-09
    • 1081

    #1
    I've got a meeting with two economics professors tomorrow. Any questions for them?
    Their backgrounds are: Finance and investing for one, and Money and Banking, Investing, and Microeconomics for the other.

    I have a few questions already for them, just looking for more quality questions since I'm going to be meeting with them. If you have a question, please post it and I'll do my best to get their opinions.
  • Peregrine Stoop
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-23-09
    • 869

    #2
    what's your meeting about?
    Comment
    • Flight
      Restricted User
      • 01-28-09
      • 1979

      #3
      Ask them what effects the end of quantitative easing will bring to the US economy. What will happen to the money supply and the Fed? Are we going to collapse?
      Comment
      • ClimbSomeRocks
        SBR MVP
        • 11-04-09
        • 1081

        #4
        the meeting is about advantage gambling: specifically sports handicapping, possibly a few questions on card counting, but I already know enough on that topic
        Comment
        • Warwick44
          SBR Rookie
          • 04-03-11
          • 25

          #5
          QUESTION 1: Ask them why it is they "profess" to know anything about that which is largely unknowable, merely 'observable' -- namely economics.

          QUESTION 2: As them why it is that "professors" feel they can teach you lessons they themselves avoided by becoming professors.
          Comment
          • LLXC
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 12-10-06
            • 8972

            #6
            Wish I had professors that would talk to me about sports handicapping...=|
            Comment
            • Warwick44
              SBR Rookie
              • 04-03-11
              • 25

              #7
              Then ask them..."Why is it that Mom & Pop America are allowed to "wager" all they like online from their E-Trade accounts...but aren't allowed to pick a side on a sporting event?"

              Given most people are WHOLLY unqualified to even understand a fraction of the inputs required to assess the value of buying/selling a stock...how is this any different than betting?
              Comment
              • Warwick44
                SBR Rookie
                • 04-03-11
                • 25

                #8
                It took me a long time to recognize that almost everything in life is essentially a wager...be it investments, relationships, or crossing the street.

                Sadly, to recognize this is for most people frightening, because it forces them to come to terms with the simple fact that they "know" so very little about anything. Known unknowns and far outnumbered by unknown unknowns.

                I spent 13 years pricing commodity derivatives on Wall Street before I ever made a single wager on a sporting event. You want to know the difference between the two?

                Absolutely...nothing. They are probabalistic events with inputs to be identified and modeled, knowns and unknowns, equally susceptible to chance, manipulation, or some balance of both.

                Sadly, one industry is far better at lobbying the honest, wise, learned people in Washington.
                Last edited by Warwick44; 04-20-11, 01:11 AM.
                Comment
                • yak merchant
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 11-04-10
                  • 109

                  #9
                  Ask them how a retard like Paul Krugman won the Nobel prize. Also ask them if they'll stop teaching and preaching this Keynesian B.S before or after it brings on the end of the world. Ask them if they know any economists that have held a real job or are they all socialist jackwagons that pontificate on how I don't pay enough taxes. Economists are right up their with tort lawyers in my handicapping rankings of who makes it to the inner circles of hell first.

                  I'm 100% sure you'll probably get the party line that all is fine there is nothing to worry about, but if you want to ask them a serious question, ask them if the U.S. is going to end in deflationary spiral or hyperinflationary currency crisis? The math says we are done at some point this decade and can't grow our way out of this like the mainstream media wants you to believe. It's either Deflationary spiral were we live through a depression and rebuild our nation and our currency (this option causes the U.S. to default on it's debt and government and bureaucracy as we know it to go away) or Hyperinflationary currency crisis where the Fed keeps printing confetti until the U.S. dollar is no longer the reserve currency but it's so worthless we can repay our debt no problem. Problem with this route is that a loaf of bred is $100 and all the people that saved all their lives have nothing left of their retirement and the guillotines come out. And ask them if they support, a world bank and world currency; if they say yes, pick up a pencil and stab them in the nuts for me.
                  Comment
                  • Warwick44
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 04-03-11
                    • 25

                    #10
                    Well said. Sadly, I think we'll get both. The deflationary death spiral is literally around the corner. No amount of Fed wing-flapping can hold back the torrent of de-levering that simply MUST happen.

                    After 5-12 or so years of that, it's going to feel like nothing anyone other than your grandparents can remember. Then it has the potential to get even worse, as THEN, the sovereign issue comes in...and all this Fed "intervention" likely catches up with us, and you can feel free to start wallpapering your child's bedroom with Treasuries and US dollars.

                    "The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design." -- F.A. Hayek
                    Comment
                    • mr.inpak
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 12-13-09
                      • 449

                      #11
                      ask them is betting sports the same as betting the stock market its both gambling
                      Comment
                      • That Foreign Guy
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 07-18-10
                        • 432

                        #12
                        Ask them how they think limited investment opportunities affect the strength of efficient market theory in sportsbetting. Is this more or less of an impact than the effect of bankroll limitations in ensuring strong form efficiency in the stock market?
                        Comment
                        • SparJMU
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-18-10
                          • 1648

                          #13
                          YakMerchant and Warwick, you both seem to have very pessimistic outlooks for the US Economy. What kind of investment strategy do you have if you believe your forecasts could happen? The "deflationary death spiral" and "hyperinflation" and obviously polar opposite outcomes.
                          Comment
                          • Warwick44
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 04-03-11
                            • 25

                            #14
                            It's a tightrope. Deflation is insidious because all boats lower at the same time, and traditionally the best place to be is cash. But of course the down-the-road risk could very well be with the USD, so it makes for kind of a game of chicken. People rushing to put all their money into precious metals have identified correctly one of the problems we face...but they have the timing all wrong, and they will likely get spit-roasted.

                            Parabola up...parabola down.

                            I am going to attempt to be cash biased until such time as we've truly taken prices in, and the deflation feels pervasive. Thereafter, one will need to watch for even the smallest inkling of real economic growth...at which time the Fed can be counted on to completely drop the ball in taking it's foot off the printing press gas...and you will want to be buying metals with both fists. Frankly, crude oil will be even better...but that isnt a reality for most people's portfolios.

                            why not just be long metals ahead of all that now? Because in the meantime gold can go back to $400/ounce and toilet flush all the armchair economists who get their financial advice from television commercials. 'Til just about as the last of them have puked...then...THEN...it will be the time to look for the insane move they have 'religiously' been hounding for.

                            Markets are positively evil that way. This is why you will more often hear someone say "I KNEW it would do that..." even after they had long ago been shaken out of their position to that effect.
                            Comment
                            • jolmscheid
                              Restricted User
                              • 02-20-10
                              • 3256

                              #15
                              Ask them if it's better to play very limited plays (higher edge) for a higher amount or to play many games (small edge) for a smaller amount? Should you re-calculate your unit size daily?
                              Comment
                              • EasyHustlin
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 07-15-10
                                • 633

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Warwick44
                                It took me a long time to recognize that almost everything in life is essentially a wager...be it investments, relationships, or crossing the street. Sadly, to recognize this is for most people frightening, because it forces them to come to terms with the simple fact that they "know" so very little about anything. Known unknowns and far outnumbered by unknown unknowns. I spent 13 years pricing commodity derivatives on Wall Street before I ever made a single wager on a sporting event. You want to know the difference between the two? Absolutely...nothing. They are probabalistic events with inputs to be identified and modeled, knowns and unknowns, equally susceptible to chance, manipulation, or some balance of both. Sadly, one industry is far better at lobbying the honest, wise, learned people in Washington.
                                Nominated. Well said.
                                Comment
                                • mrmarket
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-26-10
                                  • 4953

                                  #17
                                  Ask them if they are efficient market theory proponents and if so in what form. Also ask them if they consider any merit to the argument that the market acts as a complex adaptive system. Also ask how they invest their money and what returns they achieve(d).
                                  Comment
                                  • jetsjets1028
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-10-10
                                    • 1234

                                    #18
                                    yeah you can ask them about supply and demand
                                    Comment
                                    • Inspirited
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 06-26-10
                                      • 1788

                                      #19
                                      ask them why economics is so full of pseudo- scientific bs with either tons of apriorism or tons of mathematical models divorced from reality.
                                      Comment
                                      • yak merchant
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 11-04-10
                                        • 109

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Warwick44
                                        It's a tightrope. Deflation is insidious because all boats lower at the same time, and traditionally the best place to be is cash. But of course the down-the-road risk could very well be with the USD, so it makes for kind of a game of chicken. People rushing to put all their money into precious metals have identified correctly one of the problems we face...but they have the timing all wrong, and they will likely get spit-roasted.

                                        Parabola up...parabola down.

                                        I am going to attempt to be cash biased until such time as we've truly taken prices in, and the deflation feels pervasive. Thereafter, one will need to watch for even the smallest inkling of real economic growth...at which time the Fed can be counted on to completely drop the ball in taking it's foot off the printing press gas...and you will want to be buying metals with both fists. Frankly, crude oil will be even better...but that isnt a reality for most people's portfolios.

                                        why not just be long metals ahead of all that now? Because in the meantime gold can go back to $400/ounce and toilet flush all the armchair economists who get their financial advice from television commercials. 'Til just about as the last of them have puked...then...THEN...it will be the time to look for the insane move they have 'religiously' been hounding for.

                                        Markets are positively evil that way. This is why you will more often hear someone say "I KNEW it would do that..." even after they had long ago been shaken out of their position to that effect.


                                        More like a tightrope in a hurricane. While I agree historically where we are today usually ends in some sort of deflationary unwind, I’m not confident the “all knowing” economists will decide this time death by printing is a more apropos death. In 2008 the governments of the world stepped into stop the mother of all unwinds, but they just transferred a bunch of debt to the public balance sheets and kicked the can down the road.

                                        It will return, but this time the U.S. has painted itself into a corner. If they allow economic “nature” to take course, an unwind will occur sending us to an economic place far worse than we know now. With the current level of unfunded liabilities (estimates up to $100 trillion) and growing entitlement programs (already 44 million people in the U.S currently on food stamps) this will soon lead to default or a total restructure of the U.S and the status quo. As soon as the bread and circuses end, I’m afraid you’ll see what America is capable of. If they fight deflation with the press, and ChairSatan Bernanke keeps adding zeroes to the money supply, when inflation takes hold, the Volcker trick of raising interest rates to head it off, will not be an option as any substantial rise in interest rates causes the U.S not to be able to service its debt without further monetization leading to feedback loop (and insolvency). They'll likely try to slow this process with authoritarian measures, poorly thought out regulations , and price controls all chock full of unitended consequences.

                                        Whatever happens in the short run, I truly believe the USD will roll of its status as the reserve currency in the next decade, which is when the real fun starts. I’d say sooner, but it seems as all the central banks of the world are in a race to the bottom of the fiat world and are more than happy to debase their currencies and back door steal the wealth of their citizens. The PetroDollar ponzi scheme will end, but I’m sure the U.S will fight to keep it as long as possible. Whether that comes with a side of WW3, 1984 style Martial law, or just hyperinflation will be the surprise.

                                        So about the, “what would you invest in?” question, while I’m sure gold could go to $400 dollars, and I’m sure they will engineer a dip so extreme it will shake loose all the gold not in extremely strong hands, I think you have to have some gold/silver. And when I say gold and silver, I mean hold it in your grubby hand physical metals, not GLD or SLV (have you read the prospectus? If the SHTF you have a pretty piece of paper). It’s what I consider to be the ultimate long term insurance policy. While I’m sure there could be prices lower than here to buy, if I’m wrong and they never take their foot off the printing press pedal , then what? Whatever amount you put in Precious metals, you have to be willing to hold it through the “dips” no matter how severe. If in 10 years gold is worth less than today (in USD, not whatever World currency they’ll try to foist on us), then I’m wrong about a lot of things, but it probably means lots of things went right for the U.S., and more “traditional” investments went swimmingly. Either way I’d hold it through thick and thin, or until I can buy whole city blocks Weimar style, trade it for water Mad Max style, or have it confiscated FDR/NWO style.

                                        As far as other investments, I’d avoid illiquid investments. You have to assume just about everything that is on a piece of paper is worth the paper it is written on, especially if you get out late. Right now I’m heavily cash biased, but QE2 is “supposedly” coming to an end, that alone would cause a pullback, but I think in grand theater style, the debates over raising the debt ceiling will allow at worst a buying opportunity. With the standard “if you don’t raise the debt ceiling” you’ll end the world tactic, the PTB will ensure that everyone in congress has a little preview. Once that is over, if you are going to invest while the press is running, there is really no other option than stocks/commodities. I’m working some covered call strategies, but whatever you do I’d have a serious exit plan and always have stops, as when it goes it might “go” this time. I’m trying to find stocks that already own the commodity they are selling, as margins will be compressed for most companies due to raw material cost, but if you already own the timber, coal, potash (long term bullish on POT), etc that isn’t a concern. If the unwind does happen, I’ll stop out and wait until I think the blood is officially in the street. At that point I’ll buy a few long term stocks with Demographic implications (i.e. POT), and hopefully a few acres of farm land with water rights. If the unwind never comes, I’ll try to struggle along keeping up with inflation, until enough of it get’s exported to the rest of the world. Before we roll off of the reserve currency, we’ll send enough inflation out into the world; countries that can afford it (not the U.S) will raise interest rates to curb the inflation. If the rates get high enough, I’d be interested in locking into something like a long term Norwegian Government bond.

                                        Just as a disclaimer, I'm not investment expert, I'm not licensed, and not really qualified to give advice on anything. Only reason I wrote this dissertation is because I spend too much time on zerohedge.com and fofoa.blogspot.com learning about things I wish I didn't know. I advise you to go back to your regulary scheduled program and ignore everything above.
                                        Comment
                                        • sharpcircle
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 02-05-11
                                          • 308

                                          #21
                                          Ask them to remain in contact for the future(an email update here or there)
                                          Comment
                                          • manutdlegend
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 02-13-11
                                            • 46

                                            #22
                                            ye ask them about supply and demand
                                            Comment
                                            • Warwick44
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 04-03-11
                                              • 25

                                              #23
                                              FRESH QUESTIONS for you, given the news of the day:

                                              1. Ask them why our "Dear Leader Grand Exalted 'Bama-lama-ding-dong" today excoriated speculators for moving oil prices higher...even as his own Fed Chairman halfwit stokes the flames of retail inflation.

                                              2. Ask them to explain how our Grand Poobah in Chief interprets a futures trade, which has a seller for every buyer...perfectly matched...as a manipulated transaction.

                                              3. Ask him whether 'Bama-lama-ding-dong's refusal to drill for domestic oil has ANY impact on higher oil prices.

                                              4. And lastly, ask them why it is that bubblicious tech stock prices in 1999-2000 weren't being "manipulated" by evil speculators (you're aunt and uncle? neighbors?)...but higher commodity prices are?
                                              Comment
                                              • Scooter
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-15-07
                                                • 1159

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by ClimbSomeRocks
                                                the meeting is about advantage gambling: specifically sports handicapping, possibly a few questions on card counting, but I already know enough on that topic
                                                Why would economics professors know anything about advantage gambling?
                                                Comment
                                                • josie88
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 02-12-09
                                                  • 48

                                                  #25
                                                  Why do liberal academicians and politicians change the subject whenever they are asked a direct question about any topic that requires actual proof rather than just an opinion?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • MadTiger
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-19-09
                                                    • 2724

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Scooter
                                                    Why would economics professors know anything about advantage gambling?
                                                    They probably don't. What I would wager (haha!) is going on is he is going to pick their brains to see what principles he can apply to increase his edge. So, they'll do what they do best -- talk, and he'll sort it all out later.

                                                    Economics is somewhat full of shit. You have people of equal academic pedigree routinely arguing on both sides of various issues.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Dank_Fire
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 05-13-09
                                                      • 2269

                                                      #27
                                                      Is this meeting about a test you got caught cheating on?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • laxbrah420
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 10-29-10
                                                        • 210

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Warwick44
                                                        It took me a long time to recognize that almost everything in life is essentially a wager...be it investments, relationships, or crossing the street.

                                                        Sadly, to recognize this is for most people frightening, because it forces them to come to terms with the simple fact that they "know" so very little about anything. Known unknowns and far outnumbered by unknown unknowns.

                                                        I spent 13 years pricing commodity derivatives on Wall Street before I ever made a single wager on a sporting event. You want to know the difference between the two?

                                                        Absolutely...nothing. They are probabalistic events with inputs to be identified and modeled, knowns and unknowns, equally susceptible to chance, manipulation, or some balance of both.

                                                        Sadly, one industry is far better at lobbying the honest, wise, learned people in Washington.
                                                        You're such a liar. You couldn't last six hours at a trading desk without somebody telling you to make a market for that night's big game let alone thirteen years. everyone on wall street bets on sports.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • laxbrah420
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 10-29-10
                                                          • 210

                                                          #29
                                                          ..and please, PLEASE, use more jargon without saying anything at all.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Warwick44
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 04-03-11
                                                            • 25

                                                            #30
                                                            OK...thank you "laxbrah420"

                                                            You have 'outed' me for creating a fictitious story line on an ANONYMOUS forum. I like that. You've got a special kind of "silly" that is refreshing amidst all this drab talk about betting.

                                                            Oh, also, I love that you posted this @ 3am Eastern on a Monday morning...thus...proving that you are nowhere near a trading desk of any kind, but somehow an authority on what kind of people work there. Unless...your desk all arrives @ noon??

                                                            I'm picturing you as that Steve Carell character in "Anchorman." *L*
                                                            Comment
                                                            • MonkeyF0cker
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 06-12-07
                                                              • 12144

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by laxbrah420
                                                              You're such a liar. You couldn't last six hours at a trading desk without somebody telling you to make a market for that night's big game let alone thirteen years. everyone on wall street bets on sports.
                                                              LOL. Yup.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Peregrine Stoop
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 10-23-09
                                                                • 869

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Scooter
                                                                Why would economics professors know anything about advantage gambling?
                                                                they should understand it, but most leave it as it's a field for degens (yum yum yum)
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Scooter
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-15-07
                                                                  • 1159

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop
                                                                  they should understand it, but most leave it as it's a field for degens (yum yum yum)
                                                                  Why should they understand it? Why would they be familiar with card counting?



                                                                  Ask them if they ever go to casinos, and if so what do they and their significant others wager on?

                                                                  If the answer is slots, craps, their favorite team, etc., you already have your answer as to whether they have an understanding.
                                                                  Last edited by Scooter; 04-25-11, 05:06 PM.
                                                                  Comment
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