how to calculate a fair price for this - sort of a prop

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  • rfr3sh
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-07-09
    • 10229

    #1
    how to calculate a fair price for this - sort of a prop
    I like betting proline sometimes because they offer a tie option for baseball
    basically either team can win but only by 1
    i used to pick games with low totals and where the +1.5 runline was very juicy, works well

    but i was just curious, how would you calculate the fair price for this?
  • Blax0r
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-13-10
    • 688

    #2
    Interesting prop; although pricing it isn't too direct w/o the "reverse runline" (not sure what else to call it), where the dog is (-1.5).

    a quick and dirty lower bound would be to take the odds of this quasi-middle bet:

    -figure out allocations for a bet on dog runline and fav moneyline such that the payout's the same if exactly one bet wins (should be less than your total bet)
    -take your total bet amount and subtract from it your payout if exactly one of the bets wins; this is effectively your amount risked
    -double the payout (when both bets win) and subtract it from your total bet; this is your effective payout

    effective payout/effective amount risked is essentially a lower bound since (in theory i suppose) this middle bet should always be priced lower than the proline (because its outcome is a subset of the proline's).
    Last edited by Blax0r; 04-19-11, 04:43 PM. Reason: reversed the lower/upper bound
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    • Blax0r
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-13-10
      • 688

      #3
      you could also try divining the probability of abs(scoreA - scoreB) = 1 and stick it into the EV equation.
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      • Pancho sanza
        SBR Sharp
        • 10-18-07
        • 386

        #4
        Take each sides win probabilty using the moneyline, subtract the wins > 1 run.

        You calculate the > 1 run wins using the runlines/alt runlines.

        Go with pinnacle for all prices.

        If this is Proline in Ontario, add about 2 extra "ties" since games that go to extra innings are considered ties, even when one team wins by > 1.
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