1. 08-30-10 08:21 AM #1
    statnerds
    Put me in coach
    statnerds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-23-09
    Posts: 4,047
    Betpoints: 103

    Calculating FV ML based on historical evidence

    would 838 games be enough to start drawing conclusions?

    my data tells me a fair value money line on several NFL games in week one is +/- 210 and the lines are 10 to 35 cents away from that

    corrupt data?

    sample size too small?

    +EV wagers?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 08-30-10 09:53 AM #2
    djiddish98
    djiddish98's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-13-09
    Posts: 345
    Betpoints: 237

    How are you arriving at your ml number?

    Ml is a derivative of the spread I believe, so any off ml should have an off spread as well
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 08-30-10 10:04 AM #3
    bztips
    bztips's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-03-10
    Posts: 283
    Betpoints: 6

    Must be one hell of a model that allows you to accurately project money lines when you have no data yet on this season's teams.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 08-30-10 10:27 AM #4
    Justin7
    Justin7's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-31-06
    Posts: 8,577
    Betpoints: 1506

    statnerds,

    ML is a function of both spread and total. If you don't use total, you'll misplay every dog ML in very low totaled games with big spreads.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 08-30-10 11:34 AM #5
    uva3021
    uva3021's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-01-07
    Posts: 537
    Betpoints: 381

    pyth...i've said too much
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 08-30-10 06:11 PM #6
    statnerds
    Put me in coach
    statnerds's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-23-09
    Posts: 4,047
    Betpoints: 103

    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    statnerds,

    ML is a function of both spread and total. If you don't use total, you'll misplay every dog ML in very low totaled games with big spreads.

    damn i'm stupid sometimes

    okay most of the time

    thanks Justin
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Handicapper Think Tank | Next Thread »