Arb, Take a chance or be greedy?

[statnerds]

So I placed this before the UConn/Kentucky game.

Pending4/2/11 6:05pm Basketball NCAA Men's Basketball NCAA Championship +228 2010 - 2011 NCAA Championship - Connecticut

Should I

Arb it for a sure profit

Let it ride and consider it beating the heck out of the closing line

or

Be greedy and take a position on Butler plus some points and try to hit both?

Another option is kicking myself for missing the opener of 4, which I could have bought to 6.

Input welcomed and encouraged.

[Johnny 55]

I think you should buy Butler to 7 because buying pts. in basketball games is smart, then tease with the total, cuz that is even smarter, and then try for the middle after you have bought the pts. because that is the smartest.

[LT Profits]

Let it ride.

No need to get greedy by betting more and if you do like UConn, +3 is not enough to hedge. You should only hedge if Butler + points is +EV on its own merit.

[statnerds]

Let it ride.

No need to get greedy by betting more and if you do like UConn, +3 is not enough to hedge. You should only hedge if Butler + points is +EV on its own merit.

Excellent point sir. Thanks for the insight.

I only based the getting greedy part on the assumption the market is efficient. And if it is, any point buying makes my side +EV if I look at it in the convoluted fashion that I have +228 on the other side, so even going to +7 -220 leaves me with not only an Arb, but, depending on the historical distribution of 3 pt lines in NCAAB, which according to the HPC, would turn my push into a win 4.67% of the time, turn a loss into a win 11.68% of the time and turn a loss into a push 4.03% of the time.

So it would be an Arb, but not a true one as 20%+ of the time the results would not be mutually exclusive.