Lets say it's late August and there are 2 Handicappers that have been betting Baseball all year long. Handicapper A has made 1000 bets getting exactly 55% correct. Handicapper B has made only 200 bets but he has won an impressive 60% of them. Lets assume all were 1 Unit bets made at -110. Handicapper A is obviously going to be ahead more Units overall even though his winning percentage is lower than Handicapper B. If both Handicappers were betting on the same game and they disagreed... who would you consider more reliable? And why?
Units Won vs. Higher Win Percentage Question
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JohnGalt2341SBR Hall of Famer
- 12-31-09
- 9138
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ncsubowenSBR MVP
- 02-12-11
- 1227
#2Lets say it's late August and there are 2 Handicappers that have been betting Baseball all year long. Handicapper A has made 1000 bets getting exactly 55% correct. Handicapper B has made only 200 bets but he has won an impressive 60% of them. Lets assume all bets were made at -110. Handicapper A is obviously going to be ahead more Units overall even though his winning percentage is lower than Handicapper B. If both Handicappers were betting on the same game and they disagreed... who would you consider more reliable? And why?Comment -
illfuuptnSBR MVP
- 03-17-10
- 1860
#3Handicapper A because I can be more confident that his 55% is close to his true % whereas with B his true % has a much wider error.Comment -
donksonSBR Sharp
- 03-12-11
- 411
#4Yeah I agree, A.Comment -
That Foreign GuySBR Sharp
- 07-18-10
- 432
#5A has a z score of 2.194 vs 50%
B has a z score of 1.91 vs 50%
Therefore it is more likely that A is better than random (although both are worth following)Comment -
jhol3990SBR Rookie
- 09-09-08
- 45
#6This is an awesome question in helping my understanding of betting. Thanks OP and answerersComment -
mmortal03SBR Rookie
- 03-28-11
- 6
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