Units Won vs. Higher Win Percentage Question

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  • JohnGalt2341
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-31-09
    • 9138

    #1
    Units Won vs. Higher Win Percentage Question
    Lets say it's late August and there are 2 Handicappers that have been betting Baseball all year long. Handicapper A has made 1000 bets getting exactly 55% correct. Handicapper B has made only 200 bets but he has won an impressive 60% of them. Lets assume all were 1 Unit bets made at -110. Handicapper A is obviously going to be ahead more Units overall even though his winning percentage is lower than Handicapper B. If both Handicappers were betting on the same game and they disagreed... who would you consider more reliable? And why?
    Last edited by JohnGalt2341; 04-03-11, 08:11 PM.
  • ncsubowen
    SBR MVP
    • 02-12-11
    • 1227

    #2
    Originally posted by JohnGalt2341
    Lets say it's late August and there are 2 Handicappers that have been betting Baseball all year long. Handicapper A has made 1000 bets getting exactly 55% correct. Handicapper B has made only 200 bets but he has won an impressive 60% of them. Lets assume all bets were made at -110. Handicapper A is obviously going to be ahead more Units overall even though his winning percentage is lower than Handicapper B. If both Handicappers were betting on the same game and they disagreed... who would you consider more reliable? And why?
    If they were both betting the same game, why would you not go with the higher % person? That seems like a no brainer. Person A hits 55% person B hits 60%, it doesn't matter how many total bets (so long as you have enough for a reasonable sample size, 200 bets would be about the minimum I personally would consider reliable). If you want to look at the statistics of it, person A would have a better confidence interval for his correct bet, so there would be less (predicted) risk, but with both having a large sample size I would side with the higher %.
    Comment
    • illfuuptn
      SBR MVP
      • 03-17-10
      • 1860

      #3
      Handicapper A because I can be more confident that his 55% is close to his true % whereas with B his true % has a much wider error.
      Comment
      • donkson
        SBR Sharp
        • 03-12-11
        • 411

        #4
        Yeah I agree, A.
        Comment
        • That Foreign Guy
          SBR Sharp
          • 07-18-10
          • 432

          #5
          A has a z score of 2.194 vs 50%
          B has a z score of 1.91 vs 50%

          Therefore it is more likely that A is better than random (although both are worth following)
          Comment
          • jhol3990
            SBR Rookie
            • 09-09-08
            • 45

            #6
            This is an awesome question in helping my understanding of betting. Thanks OP and answerers
            Comment
            • JohnGalt2341
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 12-31-09
              • 9138

              #7
              Originally posted by jhol3990
              This is an awesome question in helping my understanding of betting. Thanks OP and answerers
              Holy lord dude! You've been here since 09-09-08 and this only your 18th post? I feel kind of honored.
              Comment
              • mmortal03
                SBR Rookie
                • 03-28-11
                • 6

                #8
                Originally posted by That Foreign Guy
                A has a z score of 2.194 vs 50%
                B has a z score of 1.91 vs 50%

                Therefore it is more likely that A is better than random (although both are worth following)
                What do you use as the standard deviation when calculating these?
                Comment
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