[dynamite140]

Many books have lines during the night when games are the next day. These are overnight lines as they call it. But if say a team like Red Sox are playing at home against the Mariners and say are laying -170 on the overnight line. If you are positive the line will go up tomorrow for the red sox, taking the red sox -170 would be a great idea wouldn't it? Assuming you take it for the overnight max at a book, which i think is $500 for most books and $300 for others, wouldn't it be a good idea since you can scalp it at Matchbook the next day assuming you are right? I know you are going to make very little money, few dollars or so but is it a good idea?

If you can bet Red Sox $510 to win $300 at your book. Then tomorrow the line went up for the red sox and say on matchbook its Red Sox -191/Mariners +190, you could scalp it correct? To make it easier on matchbook, lets just say i made an offer to get Mariners +190 so there won't be any commission fees. Using scalpulator.com, i see that if i take the Mariners at +190 for $279.31, i would be risking $279.31 to win $530.69 on matchbook. This would be a win/win situation since the total profit will be $20.69 no matter what team wins. If Red Sox wins, i win the $300 at my book but lose $279.31 at matchbook. If Mariners win, then i lose $510 at my book and win $530.69 on matchbook. Or i could have just risked $300 on the mariners at matchbook to win $570 and freeroll which means if red sox wins, i break even. If Mariners win, i win $60.

I have looked into line movements for baseball lines and it seems to me many lines go in the right direction. If there are 12 baseball games for the night, i notice at least 8 of them will go in the right direction. Few will be reverse line movements and others will have the lines stay in place. I do know that if you take the Red Sox at -170 and risked $510 to win $300 at your book and then the next day the line went down to -150, obviously you can either ride your bet or take Mariners on the other side for a small loss. But does anyone notice lines typically go the right way most of the time? Meaning if you know this line will go up, it usually does for baseball?

Would this be a great idea to do in baseball just to get some small profits even though its not risk free? For one thing, i do feel like most of the time you can make a small profit on the games. I do know that you need to have matchbook for this because they are going to have the best lines the following day when you scalp you bet. Is scalp the word? Also, it can help you with your rollover at your book if you do have a rollover. Worst case scenario is if a line goes the other way and you take a small loss but I think more often you make small profits correct?

Are there a lot of people that do this with overnight lines?

[dynamite140]

[COLOR=#000000 ! important]Also, it would be pretty hard to do this at the 20 cent book lines correct? You would have to do this at the 10 cent line books and of course with matchbook the following day? Is $500 the maximum usually for overnight baseball lines? I am also assuming doing this in totals or runlines is a horrible idea right and moneylines is the best way? Because a total's number might go up or down and runlines there is some big juice like +180/-220 for it to be possible?[/COLOR]

[durito]

Pinny takes 10k overnight. If you know which way the line is gonna move, you should be betting the limit there.

[dynamite140]

Can't use pinny. In the usa here. But don't you say baseball lines for moneyline games usually move in the right direction more often than not?

[durito]

By right direction do you mean towards fair value?

[Flight]

Your use of the term "right direction" is confusing. If you mean home favorite lines always increase in their direction, you are mistaken.

If you can predict line movement in your favor of even 5 cents on overnight lines, you will be a successful bettor long term.

Here's a Hint: Most cannot do this. Take the test. Pick one game per night for the next 3 weeks, don't bet it, just write down the number you get on the overnight. When the game starts, write down the closing line. After 3 weeks, you'll have 21 games. If you beat the closer by more than 5 cents on average, you are beating the system. The 5 cent rule I am using here should only be applied to -200/+200 and below.

[PRC]

To me, beating the closer means beating the no-vig closer.

[JerseyShop101]

I've been screwing around with it just for a little bit.

In your example above of Boston -170
From your quote above:
If you can bet Red Sox $510 to win $300 at your book. Then tomorrow the line went up for the Red Sox and say on matchbook its Red Sox -191/Mariners +190.

What I like doing is betting the favorite for more, on the overnight lines (when I feel the line will rise the next day), and then I buy back some- to win one unit, to make a better line on my Favorite to win.

So I would bet $510 to win $300 on Boston. Then the next day, I'd wager $200 to win $380 on Seattle.

If Boston wins I win $100. (300-200)
If Boston loses, I lose $130. (380-510)

Which makes my line Boston -130. Not bad considering everyone else has them at -191 on game day. Of course this is just an example of when I guess the line movement correctly.

[xyz]

If you can accurately predict line movement, it is as good as being able to predict the outcome of the game.

[Bluehorseshoe]

How could you possibly know which way a line move is going???