Anyone only play 2H lines in hoops?

**Pancho sanza** · 03-20-11, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by Actionbrett

Since November I have been lights out on 2H lines especially on totals. This has been my first year with most of my focus on this part of the market and I was curious how many others focus alot of their time, resources and money on 2H lines?

For instance today we had a consensus closing line of 159 in the Carolina/Washington game. 89 scored in the 1H and the 2H total opened at 84.5(closed 83.5) with an adjusted game line of 173.5 (14 points off the closing game line). I bet the under 84.5

Am I correct on this play giving the extreme value with the adjusted game line of 173.5 being such higher, 14 points of value, then the closing lines.

Regardless of the tempo, teams playing the 2H line had to be a must play correct? Prior to the start of the game I initially liked the Under 159 but not enough to play it. Now at the end of the 1H im really excited to get a full game line of 173.5.

Yesterday we had the opportunity to take Pittsburgh -7 2H with an adjusted game line of Pittsburgh +1 which was 9 points off value on the closing line(Pitt closed -8) this game ended in a push with the wacky ending.

Yesterday we also had the opporunity(im going by memory here) Kentucky down 8 at half and they were -3.5 to open and close the 2H line. Were now looking at UK +4.5 adjusted game line which is 7 points of value off the closing line.

Serious thoughts and opinions are welcome.

Pitt was -8

If the full game line is 8 points, why do you think theres value in laying 7 for a half, almost the equivalent of the full game line?

**Actionbrett** · 03-20-11, 02:30 PM

Pitt -7 2H was available at many places and even closed at -7 at a few places too.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-20-11, 04:03 PM

regardless of your success I think you need to be cautious in the knowledge that not only are you probably paying a premium vig on your bet but your betting with people fully aware of their situation, bit like poker I'm told.

that doesnt mean you cant beat the game but just be aware you need a bloodly good reason . good luck

**SparJMU** · 03-21-11, 03:14 PM

Pancho Sanza is making the point that you need to think about, but you missed it. I don't care whether the line was Pitt-7 or -8, look at the following scenario:

If you believe Pitt -8 is a fair line before the game started, then you felt Pitt would win each half by 4 points. Why would you bet Pitt -7 in the 2H if you felt they were only 4 points better per half then their opponent. I understand the point you are trying to make about getting a heavy discount from the original line, but this is flawed thinking.

Lines are set based on information known going into the game. 20 minutes of game time later, there is a lot of new information to be analyzed. Look at that new information, do you believe Pitt will win the 2nd half by more than 7 points? If so, bet it. But realize you are saying that you now believe Pitt is 14 points better than Butler if they were to play 40 more minutes of that game. Don't rely simply on full game vs half game lines.

Think about it this way, there are two options going into the second half:

1) In the first half Butler proved it is a better team. Betting Butler +7 in the 2nd half has great value.
2) Pitt is a better team, but was very unlucky in the 1st half. Betting Pitt -7 in the 2nd half has great value.

Every game is different. Sometimes scenario #1 unfolds, sometimes scenario #2 unfolds. You can't blindly bet scenario #2 and expect to win long term.

**70kgman** · 03-21-11, 03:49 PM

Your logic is flawed. To blindly bet like that would be assuming that the linesmakers full game lines are always spot on, which is obviously not the case.

Full game lines and 2H lines are completely independent of each other.

2H hoops totals are my specialty, I am hitting well over 60% on the year. In 95% of the 2H lines I bet on, I am actually getting a much worse line than the full game line, which is the contradiction to your strategy.

**Dark Horse** · 03-21-11, 04:01 PM

If you have the capacity to quickly and accurately read halftime stats, there is often value to be found. All other stats being equal (they won't be, so you need to put together the whole picture that the halftime stats tell), if one team is shooting 55% and the other team just 35%, that type of imbalance generally narrows. I don't bet this often anymore, but did so a week ago, with the Lakers shooting 37% and Orlando shooting 46% for the 1H. Orlando was only up 4 pts at halftime, and did not dominate any other stat. By the end of the game that shooting gap had narrowed to 3%. The Lakers won the 2H by 18 pts (beating the 2H line by 12 pts). The linesmakers don't have time at the half to interpret the stats. They just base the 2H line on the halftime score and full game line. That comes with softer lines and lower limits.

**thewazoo** · 03-27-11, 08:26 AM

as a casual player of 2nd halves - i have found value in playing the fav when they are behind at the half
ex last nite mavs were -6.5 for the game - they were 4 down at the half and 2nd half line was -6 - so that meant they were now only -2 for the game --they won by 17. I didnt see the half time line for the bulls last night -- but i'm sure the same scenario played out in that game as well

**EXhoosier10** · 03-27-11, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

If you have the capacity to quickly and accurately read halftime stats, there is often value to be found. All other stats being equal (they won't be, so you need to put together the whole picture that the halftime stats tell), if one team is shooting 55% and the other team just 35%, that type of imbalance generally narrows. I don't bet this often anymore, but did so a week ago, with the Lakers shooting 37% and Orlando shooting 46% for the 1H. Orlando was only up 4 pts at halftime, and did not dominate any other stat. By the end of the game that shooting gap had narrowed to 3%. The Lakers won the 2H by 18 pts (beating the 2H line by 12 pts). The linesmakers don't have time at the half to interpret the stats. They just base the 2H line on the halftime score and full game line. That comes with softer lines and lower limits.

I've always notice this when I'm watching Bulls games, but I never think to bet it. I'm for sure going to start spending some time on my computer around halftimes now and see if I can find these situations.

**Bosseman22** · 03-27-11, 01:30 PM

like to bet bulls 2nd half. If the first half is on track for well over I'll bet the second half over

**Pancho sanza** · 03-27-11, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by thewazoo

as a casual player of 2nd halves - i have found value in playing the fav when they are behind at the half
ex last nite mavs were -6.5 for the game - they were 4 down at the half and 2nd half line was -6 - so that meant they were now only -2 for the game --they won by 17. I didnt see the half time line for the bulls last night -- but i'm sure the same scenario played out in that game as well

How do you determine that you have value here?

**thewazoo** · 03-27-11, 06:51 PM

the bet at half means mavs only have to win by 3 not 7

**Pancho sanza** · 03-27-11, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by thewazoo

the bet at half means mavs only have to win by 3 not 7

What of the mavs were down 15 at half, would you lay -16 with Dallas 2nd half?

Then they only have to win by 1.

**thewazoo** · 03-27-11, 08:29 PM

the 2nd half line would probly be -8to - 10 in that scenario and I beleive that would be a good bet

**thewazoo** · 03-27-11, 08:42 PM

LAC 609 30 30 16 32 108 9 Cover: +14
BOS 610 17 25 24 37 103 192

above is boxscore from march 9th celtics fav by 9 -- down 18 at half
2nd half line was bos -10.5 -- they won 2nd half by 13 - here was my bet

Bet Boston -10.5 -110
Win
LA Clippers at Boston (Second Half ) Boston -10.5
-110
Win Can$20.00
Bet Type:
Single Bet
Bet Price:
-110
Bet Amount:
20.00
Bet Payout:
38.20
Time Placed:
March 9, 2011 8:40 PM

**Pancho sanza** · 03-27-11, 09:07 PM

About the only thing I can say is its a good thing you only play 20 bucks a pop on these.

**durito** · 03-27-11, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by thewazoo

the 2nd half line would probly be -8to - 10 in that scenario and I beleive that would be a good bet

so 8, 8.5, 9, 9.5, and 10 would all be good bets?

why?

**thewazoo** · 03-27-11, 09:19 PM

not much of a rebuttal -- only betting $20

**thewazoo** · 03-27-11, 09:24 PM

if the mavs were down 15 in a game they were fav by -6.5
and 2nd half line was mavs -10 -- you would be betting the better team was going to get back in the game
which happens about 90% of the time and get to within 5 points or better -- so the value is 11.5 points

**Pancho sanza** · 03-27-11, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by thewazoo

if the mavs were down 15 in a game they were fav by -6.5
and 2nd half line was mavs -10 -- you would be betting the better team was going to get back in the game
which happens about 90% of the time and get to within 5 points or better -- so the value is 11.5 points

So -6.5 for an enitre 4 quarters is a fair price.

But -10 for half that is better value.

I think I got it now.

**mrpooh** · 03-27-11, 11:00 PM

i do a fair amount of 2h bets, but not the only thing

**thewazoo** · 03-28-11, 08:14 PM

alright lets see what happens tonight bulls fav by 9.5 to start the game and are down by 16 at half
now they are -10.5 for 2nd half -- lets see what happens

**thewazoo** · 03-28-11, 09:06 PM

heres another game tonight utah is down 8 at half -- they were 11 point favs for the game and they are now -10 for the 2nd half -- this is no value in my opinion -- but lets see what happens

**thewazoo** · 03-28-11, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by thewazoo

alright lets see what happens tonight bulls fav by 9.5 to start the game and are down by 16 at half
now they are -10.5 for 2nd half -- lets see what happens

loser bulls made a run in 3rd quarter fell flat in 4th

**mr.inpak** · 03-28-11, 10:51 PM

my experiance says just bet the team that is winning at the half especially if it is the dog example miami -12 vs. milwaukee halftime milwaukee up by 2 second half line will have miami a 10-11 point favorite and the true line should be -6 half the game line so your getting an extra 5-6 points I have been doing these types of plays for 3 years and been hitting about 58%