[Netprofit]

I think no one denies that it is important to make a play on the best line to be a winner (and make profits in the long term) in sports betting.

Making a play on the best line involves:
1. using the right book which offers the best line (less juice);
2. the time of making a play (early / overnight line can be significantly cheaper at some books);
3. line movement (which of course can play in both ways favorable or unfavorable to you).

I have started a thread under "sportsbook & industry" section on the first point. I would like to invite discussion here in this thread for the second and third point, especially the "interaction" between them. Let me elaborate ...

The timing of making a play is something very relevant to me personally. A signaificant part of my betting strategy relies on line movement and consensus. Now since I am almost all the time making a play against the consensus especially taking into account reverse line movement (or no play for me if my conclusion is that the majority will win), almost all the time I make my play at the last minute and on the line which has moved against me (the books discourage the play by paying out less).

Now, my question is, I believe I have the winning strategy but I am taking the worst line at the last minute all the time. Is there a way out of this?

[ForgetWallStreet]

Is there a way out of this?

Yes.

[TomG]

First, it's more of an art than a science.

That being said, here's a observation among the betting percentages, the line movement, and betting volume.

1) For games with high volume (usually a match involving a big 'public' team), take the best available price earlier in the day. Throughout the day, sharps are accumulating their positions. But there is enough square action on the other side to buy back the sharp position and keep the line from moving. This creates an equilibrium in the market even though there's still value in the line.

2) For lower volume games, there just isn't enough square action to buy back the sharp side. Much of the value has already been bet out of the betting line. I'd suggest waiting until game time and taking the best available price, although I'm not convinced this is even a winning strategy.

[tanner40]

I made my NBA bets late and have been making my MLB early (night before). Seems to work for me. Not sure when I will bet NFL/college yet.