Can anyone help me create a model for NBA?

**jgilmartin** · 03-07-11, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by ClimbSomeRocks

Is there any way that I can find lines from each and every one of the games that have already been played this season?

Yes. http://www.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball/odds-scores/ - you can can go back and forward using the calendar.

Originally posted by ClimbSomeRocks

Also, is there a way to write a computer program that will read the box score (from espn or any other reliable site) and place these values into a spreadsheet? If I could do that, I could evaluate and prove that my edge is real. In that case I could stand to make a good deal of money.

Yes. Google 'excel web query'.

**ClimbSomeRocks** · 03-08-11, 12:10 AM

thanks for the help!

**EasyHustlin** · 03-08-11, 08:29 PM

sportsdatabase.com is a great site for backtesting. Also, using excel can get pretty gruesome when you start working with lots of data... computer programming is your friend.

**ClimbSomeRocks** · 03-08-11, 11:42 PM

Haven't made the model yet, but since I started this system (betting points only unfortunately) it has gone 10-1. Will definitely share the criteria and picks with anyone who can help me create this model

**dbartinbwgc** · 03-08-11, 11:58 PM

What all info on NBA are you looking for

**ClimbSomeRocks** · 03-09-11, 12:15 AM

I think I found most of it online already. But it would be nice to have a breakdown of each team's win margin for each quarter. Then also what the spread was for that quarter, and if they covered the spread or not. I think this has great potential for the lines to be off because generally Quarter lines are just a fraction of what the total line is

**threeg5** · 03-09-11, 09:22 AM

If you are looking at quater lines it has for sure been done.
Not trying to take away your steam as IT IS VERY EFFECTIVE
I believe you would have interest in 2 threads from a guy named "curious"
search for him and then look at his quater line threads him and another fellow posted all sorts of data and what they were doing BROKE THE BOOKS!!
SIMPLE VERSION(s)
first "scrub" the crap teams for both of the following (any team with a win % under .300 for sure(I say for sure because there are still instances to lose but this GREATLY reduces those chances))
1 if a team loses the first half bet them to win the 3rd quarter
(now pay attention to the line for that quarter)
a if it is a Favorite to win that quarter bet the ML (yes juice can get up a little)
b if it is a dog bet the points (juice will be lovely)
NEVER LAY POINTS ON A QUARTER BET
2 Pick a team to win the first quarter (any game)
if they lose that quarter bet them to win second quarter
if they lose that quarter bet them to win the third quarter
if they lose that quarter bet them to win the fourth quarter
IT IS ULTRA RARE FOR TEAMS TO LOSE ALL 4 QUARTERS IN AN NBA GAME

This is NOT my system nor do I claim anything about or for it
Please do your own research using the named site in here sportsdatabase.com (they are a great friend for these)

I think that is it

3g5

**EasyHustlin** · 03-09-11, 10:20 AM

There are no sites I know of that have that information. You're going to need a program that scrapes lines from your book each night as well as boxscores. It would be almost impossible to backtest something like that but you could certainly live-test it.

Also, the poster above me forgot to note that there are VERY few books that actually offer live betting when it comes to NBA quarters. I only know of three total- two are Jazette books who I wouldn't trust with my money, and one is a euro book that will limit you as soon as you start winning.

**ClimbSomeRocks** · 03-09-11, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by threeg5

If you are looking at quater lines it has for sure been done.
Not trying to take away your steam as IT IS VERY EFFECTIVE
I believe you would have interest in 2 threads from a guy named "curious"
search for him and then look at his quater line threads him and another fellow posted all sorts of data and what they were doing BROKE THE BOOKS!!
SIMPLE VERSION(s)
first "scrub" the crap teams for both of the following (any team with a win % under .300 for sure(I say for sure because there are still instances to lose but this GREATLY reduces those chances))
1 if a team loses the first half bet them to win the 3rd quarter
(now pay attention to the line for that quarter)
a if it is a Favorite to win that quarter bet the ML (yes juice can get up a little)
b if it is a dog bet the points (juice will be lovely)
NEVER LAY POINTS ON A QUARTER BET
2 Pick a team to win the first quarter (any game)
if they lose that quarter bet them to win second quarter
if they lose that quarter bet them to win the third quarter
if they lose that quarter bet them to win the fourth quarter
IT IS ULTRA RARE FOR TEAMS TO LOSE ALL 4 QUARTERS IN AN NBA GAME

This is NOT my system nor do I claim anything about or for it
Please do your own research using the named site in here sportsdatabase.com (they are a great friend for these)

I think that is it

3g5

Interesting. I was more going to focus on certain teams that do very well in certain quarters. I've been laying points in all of my quarter bets actually. So far they're doing very well, we'll see if this continues. I think 1Q and 3Q lines have the most value, as this is where teams who have a high win % generally pull away. 3Q is especially interesting, as teams with good coaching make adjustments during halftime.

What exactly is the reason to "never lay points?" Or is that just something Curious had said

**threeg5** · 03-09-11, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by EasyHustlin

Also, the poster above me forgot to note that there are VERY few books that actually offer live betting when it comes to NBA quarters. I only know of three total- two are Jazette books who I wouldn't trust with my money, and one is a euro book that will limit you as soon as you start winning.

Yes you are correct however there are some sportsbetting:com i beleive and bookmaker maybe actaully i could be wrong on both. not sure but Ithink with some research you can find them.
and there is a good reason why they do not have it. ITS A FINE WAGER!!

Originally posted by ClimbSomeRocks

Interesting. I was more going to focus on certain teams that do very well in certain quarters. I've been laying points in all of my quarter bets actually. So far they're doing very well, we'll see if this continues. I think 1Q and 3Q lines have the most value, as this is where teams who have a high win % generally pull away. 3Q is especially interesting, as teams with good coaching make adjustments during halftime.

What exactly is the reason to "never lay points?" Or is that just something Curious had said

Well he did say it but, toward the middle to end of thread. as I was reading it, it made since I thought of it as I was reading that initially.
Why would I lay points on a quarter bet it similiar to chasing fav odds on the ML
except with quarters as you know 2points are common on the bets and 1 point differences are the norm sounds like a lose situation to me.

Now something curius did say that was highly scrutinized was that he lived in vegas last year or the year before and made these wagers at a land casino (he named the Hilton) several members jumped on him and said BS he laughed and baiscally said ok.

However after looking at the stats if Iwere a true chasing man and that were more readily available Its what I would play
IT TRULY IS ULTRA RARE THAT A TEAM GOES ALL 4 QUARTERS WITHOUT WINNING ONE OF THEM EVEN THE JUNK TEAMS

3g5

**ClimbSomeRocks** · 03-09-11, 09:53 PM

Interesting. So far, this system (along with tailing Sweetjones55's plays in NBA) has gone 12-1 in the past 3 days. check out my thread in the NBA forum!

**threeg5** · 03-10-11, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by ClimbSomeRocks

Interesting. So far, this system (along with tailing Sweetjones55's plays in NBA) has gone 12-1 in the past 3 days. check out my thread in the NBA forum!

Let me ask CSR are you only doing 1 team?
If you have the drive trail a team at each start time I believe you will find that most games you can pick a winner of the 1st quarter then if they win you are done if they lose then play the opponent and martingale (yeah the dread word) for the other quarters for a win.
an if you keep you plays starting at 2% of BR then you should be fine even with a loss(which is not likely but, possible)

Also guys you really only need to hit 55% consecutively and have proper MM to really succeed!
Imagine if everyday you increased your BR by 1.5%-3% Start with $500 and do the math

Ending amount=P* (1 + R)^365

P=principal
R=return

500 * (1 + 0.03)^365= 24242362.26
That produces 3% Daily compounded winnings starting BR $500

3g5

**ClimbSomeRocks** · 03-14-11, 10:02 AM

Thanks 3g5. I'm still a bit confused at where you would consider your money safe that you can bet quarters 1 at a time and use a chase system. Also not a big fan of chasing in general. I'm still working out the kinks in my model, I definitely think it'll work long term.

Here is what I'm doing at the moment, please let me know if anyone has suggestions on how to make it more accurate.

I'm starting with the assumption that 1,3,4Q lines are the easiest to beat because it is a smaller market that full game lines and it really is just a portion of the full line (divided by approx 4). I've noticed that certain teams consistently outperform other teams at certain times of the game. The general observations I have made are that: Bulls and Celtics win the 1st and 3rd quarter by more than 3 points. I don't think I'll ever lay more than 3 points on a single quarter. 3rd quarter is a bit tricky because I've had situations where the bulls have trounced a team in the 1st half and not tried very hard for the rest of the game.

The Timberwolves also SUCK in the 4th Quarter. I think this is due to poor coaching and the fact that they are a very one dimensional team. Kevin Love gets his double double and then gets tired. Michael Beasley is a good scorer, but he tends to tire and degrade as the game goes on as well.

Finally, the Heat 1Q / 1H seems to be hitting a lot, then they piss away the game. Maybe this has been fixed, they haven't been doing it as much lately.

More to come on exactly how the model works later, gotta run though. Please comment on my general observations and let me know what you think. Lakers and Spurs are teams that also need to be looked at. A statistical analysis showed that 1st and 3rd quarters were the most important and had a very strong statistical significance / correlation with winning the game.

**brewers7** · 05-25-11, 02:52 AM

Originally posted by ClimbSomeRocks

Thanks 3g5. I'm still a bit confused at where you would consider your money safe that you can bet quarters 1 at a time and use a chase system. Also not a big fan of chasing in general. I'm still working out the kinks in my model, I definitely think it'll work long term.

Here is what I'm doing at the moment, please let me know if anyone has suggestions on how to make it more accurate.

I'm starting with the assumption that 1,3,4Q lines are the easiest to beat because it is a smaller market that full game lines and it really is just a portion of the full line (divided by approx 4). I've noticed that certain teams consistently outperform other teams at certain times of the game. The general observations I have made are that: Bulls and Celtics win the 1st and 3rd quarter by more than 3 points. I don't think I'll ever lay more than 3 points on a single quarter. 3rd quarter is a bit tricky because I've had situations where the bulls have trounced a team in the 1st half and not tried very hard for the rest of the game.

The Timberwolves also SUCK in the 4th Quarter. I think this is due to poor coaching and the fact that they are a very one dimensional team. Kevin Love gets his double double and then gets tired. Michael Beasley is a good scorer, but he tends to tire and degrade as the game goes on as well.

Finally, the Heat 1Q / 1H seems to be hitting a lot, then they piss away the game. Maybe this has been fixed, they haven't been doing it as much lately.

More to come on exactly how the model works later, gotta run though. Please comment on my general observations and let me know what you think. Lakers and Spurs are teams that also need to be looked at. A statistical analysis showed that 1st and 3rd quarters were the most important and had a very strong statistical significance / correlation with winning the game.

CSR:

If you ever get to the point where you are serious about backtesting something, look me up because I have 20+ years of NBA lines and totals, and that includes halves and quarters...

**alldayvike28** · 03-04-12, 02:09 AM

Brewer,

Any way to get your spreadsheets?

**paw** · 03-11-12, 03:39 PM

It all sounds great. Find the book or local that will let you Play !!! The NBA Quarter gig is Up.

Nobody is taking the action anymore. You want to make some cash, Figure out the MLB market and everything else will become secondary.