1. #36
    DukeJohn
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    I realize people are just generalizing in saying everyone bets NFL, referring to sports bettors in general. However, I do not. Someday, I may, but until I can figure out a winning testable angle, I will not be placing my money on this sport.


  2. #37
    jtarbear
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    The internet allows the sharing of so much info that you have to wonder what difference if has made in betting over the last 30 years.

  3. #38
    Sawyer
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    Quote Originally Posted by DukeJohn View Post
    I realize people are just generalizing in saying everyone bets NFL, referring to sports bettors in general. However, I do not. Someday, I may, but until I can figure out a winning testable angle, I will not be placing my money on this sport.

    Me too Duke. I cap basketball, baseball and hockey. That's it. No football for me..

  4. #39
    Grosshhit
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    I've found success in previous NFL seasons by picking one or two teams to follow each season and cap the shlt out of them. Get to know their players, coaches, mood of the team, etc... I would get on the hometown's news websites and check daily about what they had to say about their team. A lot of the writers are biased towards their team of course, but still a lot of good information out their that you wont see on ESPN or whatever stat site you may use to cap your games.

  5. #40
    gojetsgomoxies
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    things that go BUMP in the night..... like this thread.

    i think it's beatable but not highly beatable....... energy and time is best spent elsewhere. much of that is the relative efficiency but other leagues have so many more game dates. it's great to go to vegas and bet on nba, nhl, mlb games every day in-season.

    i see the comment english premiership is more analyzed bet-wise than NFL. i find that really hard to believe. my googling has never brought up remotely near the analytics that there is for the NFL.... england is definitely much more bet-intensive culture, with bookies on high street and a major horse racing culture.... i know it's a long shot but could the person who posted on EPL point me to some good sites, as i think something like ties is underbet.

  6. #41
    gojetsgomoxies
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    i think almost all the factors that make nfl just as beatable as other sports are there. behavoural factors of teams and bettors.

    BUT, so few games, so much attention, not that much variation in scores and/or ATS covers...... games go pretty close to form i think. and tons of betting generally interested and/or bet on few number of games. things like nfl pools are huge. they help bring up the entire nfl knowledge level even if those people don't bet games.

  7. #42
    danshan11
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    NFL has 1 huge problem
    that is volume, you could have an edge and still get smoked in the NFL because of volume
    the other is man lines are sharp, if you look at NFL ML compared to say NBA or NHL there is very little movement therefore space to win in the NFL.

  8. #43
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    NFL has 1 huge problem
    that is volume, you could have an edge and still get smoked in the NFL because of volume
    the other is man lines are sharp, if you look at NFL ML compared to say NBA or NHL there is very little movement therefore space to win in the NFL.
    Dan, thx for the comment......... what do you mean by volume? just that alot of betting leads to efficiency (which makes sense) or something else

  9. #44
    eaglesfan371
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    I have a limited history and don't make that many bets, 1-2 spreads a week usually in NFL, but I've been up each year in the NFL playoffs, past 5 years.

    Meanwhile I can say the opposite in anything hoops. Definitely down, past 5 years.
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  10. #45
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    Dan, thx for the comment......... what do you mean by volume? just that alot of betting leads to efficiency (which makes sense) or something else
    yes NFL you have 500 games a season say you can find bets on 10-15% of them that is 50 -75 games a year. it would be really hard with that small of a sample size to say, hey I am good at this or I suck. that is why we have so many 1 or 2 seasons NFL superstar bettors and then they just disappear. its the same with players, if a player has some amazing stats for a few weeks he looks like a HOFer for that season and then next season you dont even hear his name again.

  11. #46
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Dan, thx for response....... that's a great point you make on volume of games and statistical significance. i didn't click on your link on spurrious correlation (or similar) in another thread but i think i will

    i see pre-BUMP comments on betting limits vs. efficiency of sports.... i would think the correlation is very very high........ i have done this a few times and know others that do this. they find odds that are completely wrong and bet them. but then you find the limit is really low (like $50).

    canadian college football was perfect example of very inefficient and low betting lines. a perennial horrible team hired a new coach and brought in 30-40 JC mature players (canadian college had this weird thing with tons of 28 year-olds playing but this team had never done it before). a team that lost many games by 40 points turned into a 50% WP team. big sports book had no idea so they lost $400 to 8 bettors or something similar. then the spread corrects really quickly....... lots of much smaller opportunities all the time. but very small $$$$$

  12. #47
    gojetsgomoxies
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    another thing about market efficiency.

    i used to play the improved NCAA football team for quite a few weeks in years past. now it seems like some perennial horrible team that has improved alot is now a favorite against a medicore team in week 4. seems like it didn't change that quickly in past.

    internet chat rooms, good websites (teamrankings.com, statfox.com etc.) and analysis engines has changed things

  13. #48
    danshan11
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    the big thing with football is it would take a really long time to know if you are good or not, that to me is scary, if we are talking big bets not rec money

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