[Winner_13]

Hey guys I calculated a 3% EV difference using no vig lines between a sharp book (pinny) and a square book ( SIA,BODOG)?
However it is a smaller market with lower limits


Would this work?
Simply using the no vig lines?

for eg.
1 book its -195 at sharp book
the other book its -175 at square book



THANKS 4 INPUT..points will be given

[Winner_13]

Hey guys I calculated a 3% EV difference using no vig lines between a sharp book (pinny) and a square book ( SIA,BODOG)?
However it is a smaller market with lower limits


Would this work?
Simply using the no vig lines?

for eg.
1 book its -195 at sharp book
the other book its -175 at square book



THANKS 4 INPUT..points will be given

[BatemanPatrickl]

What are you looking to do here? If you like the play, use the no vig lines.

[rfr3sh]

[BatemanPatrickl]

[mathdotcom]

Just hammer -175 at the square book.

[mathdotcom]

Also answered this in think tank

Just hit the -175.... it's simple

[Winner_13]

what i mean is the lines are quite different on a sharp book and a square book.
So i calculated the no vig line win percentage which is 64.7% at the sharp book and 60.`% at the square book this equates to positive 4% EV if i bet at the square compared to the sharp book lines

[Winner_13]

what i mean is the lines are quite different on a sharp book and a square book.
So i calculated the no vig line win percentage which is 64.7% at the sharp book and 60.`% at the square book this equates to positive 4% EV if i bet at the square compared to the sharp book lines
__________________

[Winner_13]

how much % should I bet of my bankroll,
how do I calculate this using kelly?

[Winner_13]

how much % should I bet of my bankroll,
how do I calculate this using kelly?

[PRC]

Use the kelly calculator up there, enter in your probabilities (using Pinny's as the estimated WP), and it will tell you.

[$tinky]

keep asking questions about it till it starts.

[HedgeHog]

If the limits are that low, bet the max ($500?) on the advantage bet. The time it took to post here probably killed the opportunity. Sometimes you just need to trust your instincts and pull the trigger instead of running the numbers. Keep your 3 points.

[mathdotcom]

what i mean is the lines are quite different on a sharp book and a square book.
So i calculated the no vig line win percentage which is 64.7% at the sharp book and 60.`% at the square book this equates to positive 4% EV if i bet at the square compared to the sharp book lines

Given your numbers posted above you have a 3.87% edge.

I say you bet it all.

[Winner_13]

lol thanks mathy...u bein sarcastic?

[Winner_13]

lol thanks hedgehog..nah the bets still there the sharp books got $7000 limits.

the squares got $500 limit.

as you can probably tell since im posting questions like these I don't got a $500 bankroll.

I was just wondering if I am on the right track.

In a market where you can scalp daily I thought these kinda oppurtunities would be there often you guys are making it sound as if there not.

Thanks for the input everyone

In a mark

[Winner_13]

the difference in the line is only 20 cents( the pinny lean)

[Winner_13]

the difference in the line is only 20 cents i guess thats tons on a ML sport

[xyz]

What are the odds for the dog at Pinny and the other book?

Hey guys I calculated a 3% EV difference using no vig lines between a sharp book (pinny) and a square book ( SIA,BODOG)?
However it is a smaller market with lower limits


Would this work?
Simply using the no vig lines?

for eg.
1 book its -195 at sharp book
the other book its -175 at square book



THANKS 4 INPUT..points will be given

[roasthawg]

Kelly says bet 2.9250% of your bankroll if the favorite does in fact have a 64.7% chance of winning and you can get a -175 line. Be careful though, blindly following pinny isn't a winning strategy imo.

[Winner_13]

well i found 20 cents different on pinnys line at $7000 limits compared to bodog and SIA $500 limits.

pinnys hold was 102.4 percent while bodog was 104.5 and...and still found 20 cent differences.

now there were 3 bets 20 cents different and i bet all 3 and they lost.....how the fuk do you guys win?

is this the wrong strategy?

[Winner_13]

well i found 20 cents different on pinnys line at $7000 limits compared to Bodog and SIA $500 limits.

pinnys hold was 102.4 percent while bodog was 104.5 and...and still found 20 cent differences.

now there were 3 bets 20 cents different and i bet all 3 and they lost.....how the fuk do you guys win?

is this the wrong strategy?

[Winner_13]

the thing is ive been doing this before but now i just put the math behind it.
but instinctively just kinda knew what to do with reverse line movements and all that

[Winner_13]

ive bin doing this before i just put the math behind it now.


pinny is not as sharp as they used to be i still wieghed in greeks and Cris';s line and since using 20 cent lines there WAS EVEN MORE +EV OFF THE NO VIG SHARP LINE COMPARED TO SQUARE SHOP

[u21c3f6]

well i found 20 cents different on pinnys line at $7000 limits compared to Bodog and SIA $500 limits.

pinnys hold was 102.4 percent while bodog was 104.5 and...and still found 20 cent differences.

now there were 3 bets 20 cents different and i bet all 3 and they lost.....how the fuk do you guys win?

is this the wrong strategy?

At the risk of sounding like a broken record , IMO all you did was get a better price (not a bad thing). The problem is that you have no proof that the better price wager was actually +EV and IMO, EV cannot be accurately calculated the way you did it.

Again, sporting events are not like rolling a die where the exact probability is known. When you wager on a non-random subset of sporting events, your wagers may or may not conform to the winning % suggested by the line.

Joe.

[Winner_13]

I beat the CRIS,GREEK AND PINNY LINE BY MORE THAN 25 CENTS ON 1 PLAY 20 ON ANOTHER AND ABOUT 15 ON ANOTHER AND LOST ALL 3 ughhh...I know ur not supposed to win all of em

I was wondering what the professionals here thing.
My other thread got delted but HedgeHog and Mathy seem to suggest its the right thing

[Winner_13]

what the pros here think**

[sharpcat]

A line move does not point toward a winner it only points to a number that was not accurate, therefore if you are betting a dog in the range of +200 you are still going to have a 30-40% chance of winning your bet.

[Winner_13]

was bettng a fav thats no vig line was -155 at bodog...and -179 vig line at pinny.

the other one was no vig line at bodog -105 and pinnys was -115.

are these methods not correct?

[donjuan]

I don't think you understand what no-vig means.

[Winner_13]

i might not ?

you can calulate the no vig line
at bodog they had a 30 cent line. Pinny had a 12 cent line or something.

bodogs no vig line if they werent taking any vig or juice equaled -155/+155
using a 30 CENT LINE

pinny only had a 12 cent line I belive and thier no vig line equaled -179/+179

calculate EV using no vig line = 179/279 PINNYS no vig assuming they are the sharper market.

I then calulated bodogs EV and the difference was about 3-4 %.

someone explain? please

[u21c3f6]

i might not ?

you can calulate the no vig line
at bodog they had a 30 cent line. Pinny had a 12 cent line or something.

bodogs no vig line if they werent taking any vig or juice equaled -155/+155
using a 30 CENT LINE

pinny only had a 12 cent line I belive and thier no vig line equaled -179/+179

calculate EV using no vig line = 179/279 PINNYS no vig assuming they are the sharper market.

I then calulated bodogs EV and the difference was about 3-4 %.

someone explain? please

Does what you wrote above mean that at Bodog the line was -170/+140 and at Pinny it was -185/+173? If not, please clarify.

Joe.

[HedgeHog]

Perhaps the edge isn't as good as you think. I would step back and track them on paper until you see better resilts. You could also scalp the square Book with Pinny and MB for a sure profit.

[dogman]

Some good advice here. U21 and sharpcat are right on here. I was geting some great lines but steadily losing money when I was chasing steam. I thought that getting a good number and beating the closer I would easily win, not so with me. Long run, maybe it's a winner, I'm not sure.

Post 29 by sharpcat said it perfectly.