[SBR Lou]

Math guys are gamblers, too.

Investors take big risks, when they know the rhyme and reason is clearly against making such a move. We're all human, the numbers are always perfect, the application usually isn't, that's what this flow of information is all about. Sharpening ones mind, so they can then apply what they've learned to the best of their ability. I understand all that. I also understand how the human mind works.

Tell me, is there NEVER a situation where, for whatever reason, you feel your edge is enough to take an -EV shot of betting well above your means, an ATS situation with no protection or hedge factor involved? If so, tell me what you've done to calculate that edge any differently than the monotonous, slow-paced % bets that never invoke the rush associated with problem gambling?

I know some of you calculator wielding, number crunching guys splurge once in a while- I want to know when.

[MrX]

I find anything approaching full-Kelly to be plenty rush-inducing.

Of course, that depends on what kind of edge you have.

[pico]

i got burned so many times with all in

[forex]

It is true that many big investors got to where they were by going all in not only in sports betting but in general investing. If you want to make it big then thats the way to go and those that go all in have big balls.

[MrX]

If you want to make it big then thats the way to go...

I would argue that this is just not true.

If you want to make it big, work very hard to obtain and quantify a significant edge and size your bets in a near-optimum way. Betting inappropriately large portions of your bankroll is a good way to not make it big.

[MrX]

Of course, if you don't have an edge and you want to make it big, then by all means, go all in as many times as necessary.

[cobra_king]

Of course, if you don't have an edge and you want to make it big, then by all means, go all in as many times as necessary.

100% true as it's the only way someone betting without an edge can make it big.

I don't believe there is ever a time to go all-in. If you can obtain and sustain edges in every bet you make, why would one ever risk being able to exploit that edge by risking and maybe losing his entire bankroll on one bet.

[forex]

i am not just talking about sports betting but general investing. look at all the people that have their money in company options. look at the microsoft empployees early in the start making 30k a year be in the millions from that stock. look at google founders... michael dell put all his money in his company.

[Arnold]

i am not just talking about sports betting but general investing. look at all the people that have their money in company options. look at the microsoft empployees early in the start making 30k a year be in the millions from that stock. look at google founders... michael dell put all his money in his company.

It would help if you also look at those, that didn't make it. You're looking probably at 0.00001% of those that tried and succeeded. You can get lucky one time, of course, but that's not the point in sports betting. You will lose it all the next time. If you want to make it big, then do it slowly and wisely.

[20Four7]

I knew Nortel employee's who were counting their days till retirement when the stock was $120 a share. They are all still working there as no one got out and most continued to buy during the high side as employees. The only time to go all in is "if" your playing poker and your holding the nuts. Even then you might still get drawn out on and presumably your whole roll isn't on the table. Even with a 100% arb you shouldn't go all in mostly due to the difficulty of moving money around and the cost of moving money around. And a 100% arb is guaranteed.

[durito]

Putting 100% of your money into a company is a bit different than betting your entire bankroll on Memphis -6

[SBR Lou]

Putting 100% of your money into a company is a bit different than betting your entire bankroll on Memphis -6

It will either turn out to be a good or bad investment. It is not much different. If gamblers want to refer to themselves as investors, it should go with the territory that sometimes you will take an extraordinary risk.

You can argue against doing it in the short-term, but the entire idea is to set yourself up in a stronger position for the future, so I am not opposed to the idea of rolling the dice on few occasions. One can argue that although you would avoid putting yourself in a vulnerable position, without taking any bigger risks than your bankroll or edge would dictate you are constricting yourself financially.

[pat venditto]

it is never ok to go all in. NEVER. and yes the key to beating any gambling game is understanding the math of gambling

[turnip]

Put my vote down for never.

[pat venditto]

if you go all in on a game you are basically saying im not good enough at handicapping to win in the long term so i'll try to double up by letting it ride on short term luck and varience.

[forex]

it's not about giving up. It's about finding an opportunity and capitalizng on it. If you find something that you think is good then dont be afraid to push it IF you can handle the risk.

[pat venditto]

thats square mentality

[VegasDave]

Makes no sense to go all in... I do it from time to time for the adrenaline rush... but it really makes no sense if you are trying to make a long run profit.

[Arnold]

if you go all in on a game you are basically saying im not good enough at handicapping to win in the long term so i'll try to double up by letting it ride on short term luck and varience.

Agree. Successful bettors have a plan, and going all in is surely not on the list.

it's not about giving up. It's about finding an opportunity and capitalizng on it. If you find something that you think is good then dont be afraid to push it IF you can handle the risk.

By opportunity you mean a "lock"? An opportunity is just another bet, not a "go all in and be broke" type of things.

[forex]

if you are able to find something good that stands out and you think you have a high probability of success then go for it. you arent going to be a billionaire by trying to beat the system on a regular basis. Again, I am not talking only sports betting but in general business and investments.

[donjuan]

if you are able to find something good that stands out and you think you have a high probability of success then go for it. you arent going to be a billionaire by trying to beat the system on a regular basis. Again, I am not talking only sports betting but in general business and investments.

If you are even marginally competent at sports betting, your ROI over the course of a year is going to be absurdly higher than on stocks, bonds or real estate. This is especially true when your bankroll is fairly small.

[imgv94]

Putting 100% of your money into a company is a bit different than betting your entire bankroll on Memphis -6

Exactly, comparing it makes no sense to me..

[SBR Lou]

Exactly, comparing it makes no sense to me..

Maybe you're just not reading between the lines?

[imgv94]

I do believe that there are plays that merit a MUCH larger than usual wager. Not an ALL-IN but a substantial wager nonetheless..

I could not imagine betting anything less than 30% bankroll on LSU in the Sugar bowl two seasons back. Situations like that which are rare merit a mega wager. If not then you are just hurting yourself.

[chemist]

Of course, if you don't have an edge and you want to make it big, then by all means, go all in as many times as necessary.

I think that's how many supposedly successful futures traders did it. Sounds ridiculous? Take a thousand maniac traders, say with a starting bankroll of around $10,000, and let them keep jamming on trades that are basically 50-50 shots that pay 1.95. On average you'd expect one of them to pull 10 straight winners (the other 999 are bust at this point). He's a rich guy! Soon afterwards he goes bust and starts selling books and seminars on how to make it as a trader.

[Stumpage]

I don't believe there is ever a time to go all-in. If you can obtain and sustain edges in every bet you make, why would one ever risk being able to exploit that edge by risking and maybe losing his entire bankroll on one bet.

Gotta agree with Cobra here. I'm sure one thing that everybody on the board can agree with is that there is never, ever a sure-thing in sports. Well, maybe not everybody agrees judging by the number of "LOCK!" selections one sees around here, but surely any rational human with any sports wagering experience can readily call to mind a number of cant-miss losses that have occurred over the years.

[greek]

never -----------but i NEVER DO IT, I ALWAYS GO ALL IN, and LOSE < AND THEN SAY WHY DID YOU BECOME GREEDY? DONT DO IT !!! DONT EVER GO ALL IN EVENTUALLY YOU LL LOSE EVEYTHING

[SBR Lou]

I'm sure one thing that everybody on the board can agree with is that there is never, ever a sure-thing in sports. Well, maybe not everybody agrees judging by the number of "LOCK!" selections one sees around here, but surely any rational human with any sports wagering experience can readily call to mind a number of cant-miss losses that have occurred over the years.

I don't think one would go all in on the premise of it being a can't miss game or a "lock", just what they consider a high enough percentage play or where they perceive to have a good handle on the game (however right or wrong).

[junkman773]

Never,never,never,never

Unless you got a job at McDonalds to FALL back on. Because most of the time you will need it.

Good Luck

[Stumpage]

I don't think one would go all in on the premise of it being a can't miss game or a "lock", just what they consider a high enough percentage play or where they perceive to have a good handle on the game (however right or wrong).

I hear ya, Crazy.....Regardless, a scary thing to do in my opinion and something I would never attempt. Basically, I'd just be terrified from Minute 01 that something completely unexpected and completely ill-timed would occur to shatter my hopes.

[operaman]

The time you would need to consider going "all-in" would be when the bet is of a quality that makes it a scarce opportunity. i.e. Would you call a all-in bet with AA in holdem (preflop) if your entire liferoll were on the line?


The "opportunity" to wager your whole BR with such a great advantage (~85%*) may not come along again for quite a while.

* Assuming the other player doesn't have AA

[cobra_king]

In poker that would be correct, (assuming you want to be called if you in fact are the one betting the aces; and not folded to. In that case than it's not always wise to go all in.) In sports betting tho, i don't believe you will ever find an opportunity that equals that 85% with aces. Yes a team may win any given game 85% of the time, but if the line is equal to or greater than that 85% than it would be -EV to do so.

[20Four7]

OK I have a 20K bankroll, when would I make a 20K bet. NEVER. You can never have a great enough edge to make that bet. I like Detroit enough to post it in the best bets thread but would I have put my whole roll on it? NOOOOO

Sportsbetting and poker are 2 different beasts. Even on an all in for poker if your lose you usually still have coin in your pocket. If all you had was 1K and went all in you better have the nuts.

[Munson15]

In poker that would be correct, (assuming you want to be called if you in fact are the one betting the aces; and not folded to. In that case than it's not always wise to go all in.) In sports betting tho, i don't believe you will ever find an opportunity that equals that 85% with aces. Yes a team may win any given game 85% of the time, but if the line is equal to or greater than that 85% than it would be -EV to do so.

I agree, SOMETIMES in poker, NEVER in sports betting.

[operaman]

I was just mentioning the poker situation as an example.
There are similar low hanging fruit situations in all forms of
gambling.

Sure locks would be an example in sports betting.

A friend of mine found a special gamble when the savings and loans were going public. He maxed everthing and put all his money on the strong belief the stock would go up. Anyone in his situaltion would have been a fool not to do as
he did. It was a almost sure %40 return in 3 months.
He bet 2.5 times over his net worth.

p.s. I was talking about calling with aces. Even in that example many if not most pros would fold their aces instead of calling. It is a subjective choice to take a wager of this nature.