how to grade bets?

**masticore** · 02-24-11, 07:41 PM

--deleted---

**FourLengthsClear** · 02-24-11, 08:42 PM

Your formula is deeply flawed.

No need to run a competition, just read this carefully.

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/29009-expected-value-vs-expected-growth-kelly-criterion-part-i.html#post250260

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

**masticore** · 02-24-11, 09:19 PM

Originally posted by FourLengthsClear

Your formula is deeply flawed.

No need to run a competition, just read this carefully.
http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...tml#post250260

thx...only linked me...and i gave you 50

thx for it

**u21c3f6** · 02-25-11, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by masticore

Anyone know a god formula to grade bets?

ex.

GameA: roi% 50 - hit% 10
GameB: roi 10% - hit% 70

My thoughts:
roi*hit%=grade.faktor

gameA: 50*10=500
gameB: 10*70=700

In that case game B should be higher grade then game A---any thought or looks that ok??

And if you think that ok..
What range should you have to grade picks 1-5

regards
mikke

I can't comment on your calculation and Ganchrow is always a good read for those that can understand it but here is my answer.

For a flat bettor I would grade Game A slightly higher than Game B because it has a slightly higher expected profit. Max wager (full-Kelly) for Game A would be 3.57% of bankroll with an expected profit of $1.79% while max wager for Game B would be 17.5% of bankroll with an expected profit of 1.75%.

However, for the Kelly bettor, I would grade Game B far superior because of the significantly higher expected bankroll growth rate for Game B compared to Game A. To put some figures for this statement, starting with a $1,000 bankroll, after 500 full-Kelly wagers for Game A with a 50% roi and 10% win rate, your bankroll would grow to $49,790.07. Not too shabby! However, starting with a $1,000 bankroll, after 500 full-Kelly wagers for Game B with a 10% roi and a 70% win rate, your bankroll would grow to $90,267.64.

I learned a long time ago that I am much better off concentrating on those opportunites that have a higher win rate even though the roi may be less (within reason of course and it must make mathematical sense).

Joe.