If you're winning big at halftime, +EV to bet the other side to middle/hedge?

**tomcowley** · 02-23-11, 10:57 AM

It's not profitable to blindly take Pit 2h. It's profitable to be covering by 8 at halftime.

**TomG** · 02-23-11, 11:12 AM

winning two bets is greater than winning one

**jds07v** · 02-23-11, 11:32 AM

but winning one bet is better than splitting and losing juice. If you are watching the game, you should have an idea of pace, momentum, and to a certain degree which team is "lucky". Factor that into the 2nd half and see if you can hit both.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 02-23-11, 12:32 PM

if only there was some sort of way to calculate the estimated growth of one's bankroll...

**jds07v** · 02-23-11, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop

if only there was some sort of way to calculate the estimated growth of one's bankroll...

but that would mean being able to calculate someone's edge, and thats a lot of work and math, which we dont like

**ClimbSomeRocks** · 02-23-11, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop

if only there was some sort of way to calculate the estimated growth of one's bankroll...

Originally posted by jds07v

but that would mean being able to calculate someone's edge, and thats a lot of work and math, which we dont like

you guys are cute... how do I go about doing this? I'm good at picking ATS, but have very limited experience as I didn't start gambling with an advantage until I joined this site just over a year ago. I'm posting because I'd like to learn, can you help?

**elgreco** · 02-23-11, 02:52 PM

I can help, if only by essentially quoting Yao. Your second half bet has nothing to do with the first. If you come to the conclusion that Pit -3 is +EV. Then it's +EV. If its -EV then it's -EV. You can't turn a -EV bet into a +EV by combining it with another bet. You can, however, lock in profit. But the locking of profit isn't inherently +EV... more often than not, it's -EV.

**jds07v** · 02-23-11, 03:24 PM

Other people have explained it better than I can. Use the search tool to find threads that explain it well.

I will point you in a direction.

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/29009-expected-value-vs-expected-growth-kelly-criterion-part-i.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

**JustinBieber** · 02-23-11, 03:36 PM

lol "im good at picking ATS". Players talk is that way --->

**BettingWizard** · 02-23-11, 05:16 PM

if you do it blindly, it's like splitting 20's in Blackjack. Pick your spots.

**Prop Bet Master** · 02-23-11, 06:01 PM

The good thing about hedging is you avoid bad beats and backdoor covers and you have a good chance to middle your wagers and double your winnings. The bad thing is you risk pissing away a likely winner and winning nothing. Always hedging will probably cost you more money than it will make you, but there are some cases where it can be profitable. If you have a good read on a game and feel the other team will come back, then hedging may be a profitable option.

**FourLengthsClear** · 02-23-11, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by ClimbSomeRocks

you guys are cute... how do I go about doing this? I'm good at picking ATS, but have very limited experience as I didn't start gambling with an advantage until I joined this site just over a year ago. I'm posting because I'd like to learn, can you help?

I think what Peregrine was alluding too is to forget about your current position on the Packers.

Consider the half-time lines on their own merits, if you calculate (or beleive) that it is +EV play it, if not then don't.

Hedging or middling shoud not be a strategy, merely a result if both individual plays make sense.

**goblue12** · 02-23-11, 11:36 PM

Most of the time the +EV side is to not hedge, but double-down on the original wager. Your +EV game bet is usually influenced by a massive public backing on the other side. They see the same team they bet at -6.5 about 2 hours ago, only this time at +10, they usually take the +10 because they just can't lay 2 scores on what they originally believed was the weaker team.

**That Foreign Guy** · 02-24-11, 06:17 AM

Depending how correlated your existing play and the potential new play are, forgetting your existing play is usually right.

If however the new play is correlated with the existing one then it may cause over-betting.

Extreme example - I had a PIT superbowl future from regular season but liked the PIT moneyline for the superbowl, obviously I didn't bet the ML as at this point they were the same bet and I already had a lot of exposure on it (and I probably should have hedged till my PIT superbowl winner exposure was equal to the Kelly amount of a moneyline bet).

**juuso** · 02-24-11, 07:19 AM

Some halftime middles are of course +EV.

**NicksPicks** · 02-24-11, 11:12 AM

Live betting is the crack.

**nyjets15** · 02-24-11, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by BettingWizard

if you do it blindly, it's like splitting 20's in Blackjack. Pick your spots.

perfect analogy !!!!!

**Peregrine Stoop** · 02-24-11, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by elgreco

I can help, if only by essentially quoting Yao. Your second half bet has nothing to do with the first. If you come to the conclusion that Pit -3 is +EV. Then it's +EV. If its -EV then it's -EV. You can't turn a -EV bet into a +EV by combining it with another bet. You can, however, lock in profit. But the locking of profit isn't inherently +EV... more often than not, it's -EV.

You can turn a -EV bet into a +EG bet though given another +EV leg.

**Dark Horse** · 02-24-11, 02:27 PM

Hedging at halftime can be very useful in soccer. Especially if you're hedging a few precise scores with high payouts.

**TomG** · 02-24-11, 05:01 PM

people hedge in the financial world all the time. what you think you're better than them?

**wrongturn** · 02-24-11, 05:09 PM

Basically it is like trading a lock winner for a bet to win either x2 (<50%) or nothing (>50%)

**skrtelfan** · 02-24-11, 08:57 PM

If you hedge you wanna have at least a neutral EV hedge if not a +EV one.

**cigar** · 02-25-11, 05:02 AM

Originally posted by FourLengthsClear

I think what Peregrine was alluding too is to forget about your current position on the Packers.

Consider the half-time lines on their own merits, if you calculate (or beleive) that it is +EV play it, if not then don't.

Hedging or middling shoud not be a strategy, merely a result if both individual plays make sense.

Combine this one with what goblue12 said ......oddsmaker is well aware and not in business to get middled