Originally Posted by
WendysRox
ok, I see what you guys are saying, I think. you are telling me that the natural flow of bets on one side or another tends to progress a line towards the actual probabilities of either team winning. Is this correct? Frankly, I've never tried to determine just how accurate NFL spreads are. And, frankly, I'm not too interested in doing so. But, I may just out of curiosity.
What I proposed, and still stand behind for the time being, is that indeed spreads are set entirely based on what will bring in equal money on both sides. I know that if I were a bookie and not a gambler, I would want to take as little risk as possible. I'd take the sure vig over my capping ability. And, this is exactly what I believe the big books do.
I think I've even heard before that in something like 65% (or 80% or whatever)of NFL games, the straight up winner covers the spread, whether they were a dog or a favorite. So, no, I don't think the spread is any indication whatsoever of actual win probability. It is solely a reflection of what Joe Public perceives the win probability to be. And, to answer the foreign guy... no I do not question my numbers. When I find a favorable spot, I assume that the public has been watching too much sportscenter and has been brainwashed into making a bad bet.