Originally Posted by
Mudcat
For myself, "trend" probably isn't even the right word. What I am talking about is basic bettor psychology manifesting itself in the lines.
Bettors love big favorites (and to a lesser extent OVERS). They look at certain match-ups and just can't see how a big favorite can lose. They feel good being with a winner. The money goes in that direction, the books want their action balanced, the lines begin to reflect bettor psychology and become soft - sometimes very soft - on the underdog side.
The "trends" I look for are cases where the bulk of bettors just keep missing something important (the most common overlooked thing being the frequency with which upsets occur. And that has been the case for decades.)