this puzzles me and i can't seem to grasp my head around how the markets calculate it.
there's some games this afternoon for example, where the market says the avg totals is at ~2.4. but when i check the stats of both teams, the home team concedes 1.3 goals on average and score 1.3 goals on average for an avg total of 2.6, while the away team scores 1.9 on average and concedes 1.6 on average for a total of 3.5.
the league average totals after 80 games played so far is 2.65, so even reverted to the mean, it would end up higher than 2.5.
50% of the home teams games have ended up under and 50% have ended up over. 70% of the away teams games have ended up over and only 30% under.
so whichever way you jerk around with the stats, i get a significantly higher total than the market is telling me. if this was just on this one game, that would be one thing, but my way of anticipating totals consistently end up much higher than what the market ends up at. what am i doing wrong?