1. 06-13-10 07:49 PM #1
    the shadow
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    What is long term?

    Accordiing to kelly, you will double your bankroll every 3590 plays if you have a 2% advantage. (Is this true?)

    So if you play 1000 games a year you get a paycheck every 3 1/2 years (maybe)

    I guess this is a standard deviation question.

    How many games does it take with a 2% advantage before you know you got'em by the balls? If ever!!
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  2. 06-13-10 11:07 PM #2
    Peep
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    Quote Originally Posted by the shadow View Post
    Accordiing to kelly, you will double your bankroll every 3590 plays if you have a 2% advantage. (Is this true?)

    So if you play 1000 games a year you get a paycheck every 3 1/2 years (maybe)

    I guess this is a standard deviation question.

    How many games does it take with a 2% advantage before you know you got'em by the balls? If ever!!
    Just thinking about it, I would say it is False.

    Even if you just flat bet, with a 2% advantage, you would get back more or less $102 dollars for every hundred bets, showing an average profit of more or less $2. So your starting bankroll should double in fifty bets, not in "3590 bets." Where did you get that number from?
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  3. 06-13-10 11:17 PM #3
    rm18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peep View Post
    Just thinking about it, I would say it is False.

    Even if you just flat bet, with a 2% advantage, you would get back more or less $102 dollars for every hundred bets, showing an average profit of more or less $2. So your starting bankroll should double in fifty bets, not in "3590 bets." Where did you get that number from?
    no it will take 50 bets to make a unit, but if that is only like 1-2% of your bankroll it will take thousands of bets to double
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  4. 06-14-10 02:40 PM #4
    LT Profits
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    Betting 2% edges vs. -110 lines, it would take 1576 bets to double up.
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