Something seems off with those Exacts based on where the other lines stand. I'm not ruling out a math error.
A)The no vig % on Argentina winning at -210 is ~66.6%
B)The no vig % on Greece advancing at 157 is ~38.45% (I haven't done this calc before with the possibility of having 2 results hit, so let me know if this math is off)
C) the no vig % of Greece winning ~10.14%
Probability of Argentina winning (A) * probability of Greece being second (B*(1-C)) = probability of exact hitting. This converts into a line of 430.35 334.59
Last edited by djiddish98; 06-11-10 at 08:35 AM.
Reason: I'm just going to give up and read a stat book
As a follow up, I think the Argentina 1st, Nigeria 2nd line has some better value. I'm getting a fair line of 303.987 (which is based on 5Dimes other lines, granted).
Last edited by djiddish98; 06-11-10 at 08:35 AM.
Reason: see above