I am going to try to explain one of the ways I approach finding profitable wagers. One of those ways is to find situations that can be exploited through the use of a “hedge”. To clarify, I differentiate between what is called an arb and what I refer to as a hedge. An arb to me is wagering on both sides of an event essentially during the same time-frame such as before the game starts. A hedge to me is wagering on one side and then “hedging”, if possible, with the other side during a different time-frame or after an event. One example of a hedge to me is when I make a wager before the game and then hedge that wager by wagering on the opposite side during live action wagering. Another example of a hedge to me (and the one I am going to describe in more detail) is making a wager in the futures market for a tournament during one round and then “hedging”, if possible, with the other or different side in a subsequent round of the tournament. I understand that some may object to the use of the word “hedge” as I described above. For purposes of this discussion, when I use the word “hedge”, please understand that I am referring to my definition as posted above.
I am going to ask for participation in this thread by asking questions along the way. It is not about whether your or my answers are “right” or “wrong”, it is about possibly passing along a different way to approach finding profitable wagers than you currently use. My questions are not intended to be insulting, they are intended to attempt to “teach a man (woman) to fish”. Hopefully there will be those that benefit from this discussion regardless of whether one learns something to do or something not to do.
Here goes:
The futures market for the XYZ Tournament in the semi-final round is as follows:
Team A W/L +148 -152
Team B W/L +272 -278
Team C W/L +495 -505
Team D W/L +495 -505
Team A plays Team B and Team C plays Team D to get to the final round. What do you think the no-vig line should be for the contest between Team A and Team B and between Team C and Team D?
Joe.