Originally Posted by
mathdotcom
forsberg, ignoring limits for now, you're better off with the 50% rebate. If you deposit $100, bet $100, you expect to lose it half the time. That's an expected profit of $25 with the 50% rebate. Given this deposit and bet size, this clearly beats the 15% rebate ($7.5 expected profit). If you win your first bet and rack it up to $200, then you can bet $200 and repeat. The 50% rebate wins again. If you go on a winning streak, you're unlikely to end up back below $100 to claim your initial rebate from either book. So the 50% rebate wins here in every way. If you deposit $10,000 however and have limits of $1000/bet, you're unlikely to run your balance to 0. But if you do, the 50% rebate would be extremely profitable. On the other hand, with the 15% rebate, you can bet $1000 and hope it loses, then get $150 back immediately. In expected value terms, the 50% rebate is still better, but your probability of running your balance to 0 is pretty low and could take a lot of time, and if you're not getting perfect scalps at the other book, this is costing you time/money. And your money has an opportunity cost. Now you're probably asking, why deposit $10,000 into a place with $1k limits? And that's a good question... you can increase the probability of running your balance to 0 by lowering your deposit with the 50% rebate. So I'd probably deposit 2-3 times their limit bet and bet the max each time. The extra 35% one book is offering you is too much to pass up just to increase your chances of a withdrawal. You'll w/d losses less often but when you do they will be a lot bigger.