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Agreed and it's not about picking winners it's about making +EV bets.....Originally Posted by durito
Can you determine if the Padres at +110 tonight was a good bet? Can you determine if the tigers at -200 was a good bet. If you don't know you need to learn. Do you know what a poison distribution is and how that applies to certain props?
A positive expectation bet is something you must learn because if it's about winners your done.
Most poisons distribute through the cardiovascular system. There are rarer types of poisons that attack the nervous system or the pulmonary system. There are two key criterion that are typically correlated with the effectiveness of the poison distribution: the relationship between the poisoner and the poison subject. If either typically eats or kills the other, the distribution is typically much more lethal. If that relationship does not exist, the poison is typically less effective (often due to the differences in sizes between the two).
The Poisson distribution has a much more limited set of lethal targets. For the most part, it attacks the financial system of sportsbooks. A majority of sportsbooks are vulnerable to this type of attack, but there are rare instances of books that are tolerant of this. The Poisson distribution also evidences an unusual phenomenon occassionally - the self-inflicted wound. Some players who misuse their Poisson end up damaging or crippling their bankroll. Very few things in life are as tragic as a Poisson distribution induced bankroll failure.
Sorry, I couldn't resist.
multiple outs and must have reduced juice
If you are an advantage player, I think this statement is pretty accurate. As a modeler, it is not. Excepting for cases like Monkey, who gets into a fight and blurts out everything he knows because he wants to show how knowledgeable he is, few modelers reveal their secrets. On the other hand, Monkey is a beginner; Monte Carlo is usually the first model type to try excepting perhaps some form of regression. So many secrets are still safe. Scratch that, Monkey is a semi-beginner, he now has a "pitch-by-pitch" sim thinking more detail at the atomic level is better.
If it works, goody-goody, but then Monkey has revealed a lot of info just because he has to show everyone how cool he is. Dumb stunt. But I see this all the time.
I'm hoping that Monkey is throwing out red herrings, but his ego is so big that I don't think so. Rest assured that there are some other smart programmers who will try this and if it works the line will erode further if/when they bring large money to the table. I know we will look at it.
i am a professional fantasy baseball player...I am also pretty good at mario go kart
Was this a red herring too? LOLtastic.
You can quit pretending now, Wrecktangle. The gig is up.
just read through this thread, and while im not a sharp myself, some of the advice here is just plain bad
this belongs in PT, except for the spoonfed baby pic...lol
u right bout that
Well I'm 10-0
is very dificult be a professional
i've been gambling for a living for 33 years (not sports) and i've never known one professonal sports bettor.
i've known two pro horse race handicappers, some gin rummy pros, chess hustlers and backgammon pros. back in the 70s you could make some real coin playing backgammon.
i've known quite a few pool hustlers, but most of them were broke and scrounging and most of the really good pool hustlers had other jobs and played pool on the side. pool has come and gone over the years. one semi-pro i knew had a good job and spent most of his spare time practicing waiting for the big game to come along.
sports betting is the toughest racket that there is. making a living at it is extremely difficult. i've had my bookie friends tell me they could beat their customers without the juice. "the juice just takes care of the deadbeats."
That gives me some food for thought ,lol
Greek sports picks!!!
Holy cow!!! how ironic is that they have the same name as your screen name
I actually heard that these guys went on 1-20 losing streak lately...........OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ban.
I can't believe no one left this remark unchallenged. I don't live off this, but I certainly have made up to 1/3 of my annual income off sports forecasting. It certainly was easier in earlier years, but there are a number of folks whose income is either wholly or partially derived from sports.
As for bookies: Aces Gold was destroyed by sharp players, I know this for a fact as I was part of a group who "helped them along."
Today, I can point to one famous example who is very much out in the open: Fezzik.
You sir, simply don't know anyone.
i like the wise crack here.
i actually messed around with day trading after getting my 401k from the job i quit to lay the wood full time. there has been no failure in any of these scenarios.n you took a stab and wiffed.
nice try
i have found that is is not as accurate as DB. i swithced a while back.
it serves its purpose for what i use it for.
i would never rely on sports options or dons best for a number i choose to be logged in to a live acct
This is one of the best posts I have ever read. I distinctly remember each one of those phases (although luckily I was exposed to touts early on and skipped step 2), and I hope to be finishing up phase 4 very soon.
Good advice and if you can fully understand Ganchrow's posts, arguably the most intelligent mathematician that posted in this forum, then you will be in a class with only few others. However, one caveat Ganchrow was admittedly not a professional Sports Bettor; which is quite remarkable given his vast knowledge of mathematics.
This is your main answer to your question. One thing also you might want to think on is, if no one on here is a professional, then how sound is all the advice. I have seen some quality insight that was quite frightening to how close they were to discovering a way to become a professional following my very model, at least the foundation. The worst part they were discussing it in a public forum!! However, thankfully, they were verbally beaten down by other posters and moved on. However, as Durito pointed out, "All of the info you need can be found on this and other forums." This is a very true statement, but I would say, SBR is the only forum you will truly need.
So, in closing, keep researching, always use fresh data, do all of Sharpcat's outline and always, always keep an open mind, because discovering that "holy grail" can come from the most unlikely places...
Best of luck,
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If you bet 1 million dollars a year @2% profit you make a whooping 20,000 a year.
At least that pays for my bar tab! Takes too big of a bankroll to win at this game!
You only need <$20,000 bankroll to risk $1million a year, that would then be 100% gain on the year.
ok this is how it works...
find a bunch of Squares and ask them for there picks (most of the time they will have trouble to win more than 45% of there bets) than just fade them and shop the hole internet for the best line ---> $$$
Good post. There are many more that I know of here in LV besides Fezzik that make the majority of their income from sports betting.
I'll have to start making the gin rummy circuit more often as I've yet to see a professional gin player.
I don't consider myself a "professional" yet, but 100% of my income comes from sports betting. Haven't had a real job in awhile
Ah, what? Ganch stated many times on this board that he was a full time professional bettor.
When searching to find the truth, I never could find a post where he stated he was not a professional sports bettor. I did find as recent as 2008 where he hinted at being a professional and of course in 2006 when he flat out stated he was. I couldn't find a thread that said anything to the contrary and now I question where I came up with that notion. So, I must apologize and retract my statement. Ganchrow is indeed a Professional Sports Bettor.
Last year during the bash he told me he doesn't EVEN gamble, he was only assisting with par cards for accurate numbers and some other math stuff for SBR, BUT DID NOT BET !
LOL... Well, who really knows now. I know he said he was in a post in 2006, even though, for some reason I thought he was not. Now, you state he claims he is not. Perhaps he was at one time, but things didn't go quite as planned. Well, whether he is or isn't, one thing is for certain, he is a great mathematician and has contributed greatly to this forum.Last year during the bash he told me he doesn't EVEN gamble, he was only assisting with par cards for accurate numbers and some other math stuff for SBR, BUT DID NOT BET !
I'm still holding out hope that he doesn't place bets because he's too paid and busy sipping Mai Tais.
What I believe I had mentioned to you in passing during what was in fact largely an interesting philosophical discussion regarding both the nature of belief and the importance of skepticism in forming cogent belief structures, was that my then management agreement with SBR precluded me from wagering with offshore books in order to avoid potential conflicts of interest or the appearance of any impropriety.
I also noted, after you invited me to join you at the Baccarat table, that I personally had absolutely no interest in gambling-as-entertainment, derived no enjoyment from the process, but was quite happy that you were enjoying yourself so much.
You also, rather kindly, bought me a cup of coffee a couple of days later while I was waiting for my wife. I appreciated that and was further pleased to learn that you had had such a financially rewarding stay in Vegas. If memory serves I also wished you continued success in the future.
What I believe I had mentioned to you in passing during what was in fact largely an interesting philosophical discussion regarding both the nature of belief and the importance of skepticism in forming cogent belief structures, was that my then management agreement with SBR precluded me from wagering with offshore books in order to avoid potential conflicts of interest or the appearance of any impropriety.
I also noted, after you invited me to join you at the Baccarat table, that I personally had absolutely no interest in gambling-as-entertainment, derived no enjoyment from the process, but was quite happy that you were enjoying yourself so much.
You also, rather kindly, bought me a cup of coffee a couple of days later while I was waiting for my wife. I appreciated that and was further pleased to learn that you had had such a financially rewarding stay in Vegas. If memory serves I also wished you continued success in the future.
A cup of coffee , Pimike must have really won big.
Enjoy your posts Ganch
Ganch is good people. Hope to see you and your lady again!
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illfuuptn gave DukeJohn 20 SBR Point(s) for 
