[clarkacal]

[COLOR=#000000 !important]I made a bet with a friend who used to book that I could beat the spread on 50% or more of every regular season game this upcoming nfl year. There is no vig, just pick winners, ties don't count. It seems to me this is a very good bet and he is on tilt...what do you think? With no vig it seems there is no mathematical disadvantage. The only argument i'm hearing seems to be psycholigical biases when picking being a common downfall. Is this legitimate? I plan on making completely random picks to offset this possibility. Isn't this like getting 2:1 on a coin flip?[/COLOR]

[noober]

Yes, it is.

[durito]

no, it's like getting +100 on a coin flip

[yisman]

it's not getting 2:1 on a coin flip. It's getting 1:1 on a coin flip.

If you made random picks, you'd have a 50% chance.

[noober]

no, it's like getting +100 on a coin flip

Read the title.

[clarkacal]

What i'm asking is it's a very +ev bet, right?

[durito]

yes excuse me, i drink not see thread title. he is giving you +200 on a coin flip. yea, you kind of want to bet as much as possible.

[noober]

According to the Kely Criterion its optimal to bet 50% of your bankroll.

[clarkacal]

Well he offered the bet to me laying 1k and I quickly agreed which I think shocked him. I think he was trying to prove a point and thought $500 was too much action for me. I've got a witness though plus he works for my dad so I can garnish his paycheck if he doesnt want to pay

[durito]

additionally, try and get him to let you use some stale lines.

[clarkacal]

We agreed that I can choose the book but the pick is from a current line and locked in.

[yisman]

you're betting 1:1 against him on whether you can beat the spread 50% of the time or more.

It seems to me that isn't like getting 2:1 on a coin flip.

[clarkacal]

If I lose I owe $500. If I win he pays me $1k. Am I missing something?

[noober]

you're betting 1:1 against him on whether you can beat the spread 50% of the time or more.

It seems to me that isn't like getting 2:1 on a coin flip.

Read the title. He is offered 2:1.

[yisman]

If I lose I owe $500. If I win he pays me $1k. Am I missing something?

oh yeah, you're right. It seemed to me you were doing a straight bet.

Your friend is stupid.

[durito]

We agreed that I can choose the book but the pick is from a current line and locked in.

so use sia, Bodog, sportsbetting, etc. line shop vigorously. take the best line you can find on every game.

[CursedDiamonds]

so use sia, Bodog, sportsbetting, etc. line shop vigorously. take the best line you can find on every game.

This is probably the most important point.

[floridagolfer]

Of course, it doesn't matter what kind of return you'd be getting if you suck at picking games. If you find a horse that's 8-to-1 and you believe his talent makes him closer to a legit 3-to-1 choice, it's all worthless if it finishes fifth.

[Peeig]

Ask him if I could be his friend too

[suicidekings]

If I lose I owe $500. If I win he pays me $1k. Am I missing something?

The deal is sound, however it does still depend on your ability to pick winners, and that can be tougher than you think when forced to play every single game.

[unusialsusp5]

mathematically even but the human element will probably enter into it. the human mind cannot pick 50% winners but since he has a human mind also one of you will probably go 53-47 or so. but will it be you at 53% or him.

[SpiderMonkey]

I'd say you're getting a little better than 2-1 ... if you base the odds on last year's FAV's SU % - prob around +225.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Well he offered the bet to me laying 1k and I quickly agreed which I think shocked him. I think he was trying to prove a point and thought $500 was too much action for me. I've got a witness though plus he works for my dad so I can garnish his paycheck if he doesnt want to pay

You can't get anyone's paycheck garnished until you get a court order allowing that; in order to do that, you'll have to present proof of the debt to the court and I don't think gambling debts are enforceable.

[FreeFall]

The deal is sound, however it does still depend on your ability to pick winners, and that can be tougher than you think when forced to play every single game.

if hes betting closing lines he is getting in theory 50/50 on each game ATS. Hopefully he can bet at slow books and beat the closing line by a .5 point or 1 point and be fine. I'd be worried that you would'nt be able to bet enough games and then varience comes into place

[clarkacal]

Actually part of the bet is I have to make a pick every reg season game. Yes there is definitely variance and I'm well aware theres a good chance I lose. I really don't want to analyze and pick for the games, I would rather just do it randomly. Any suggestions? Just flip a coin for each game?

[mathdotcom]

Yes

Flip a coin

Maybe take all home dogs

[Cookie Monster]

There are many +3 -120/100. In those you always take the favored side.
Also should get the pinny lean, just be sure of taking into account the shaded anti Wong teaser lines (+7.5 may go up to +9).

[Flight]

SBR John should offer something like this up for the posters.

Only way I can win against him.

[statnerds]

good deal for you

bad deal for him

only if you are unbiased enough to bet both faves and dogs. if 65% of more of your plays are on side, you are fukked

[LT Profits]

Of course, it doesn't matter what kind of return you'd be getting if you suck at picking games. If you find a horse that's 8-to-1 and you believe his talent makes him closer to a legit 3-to-1 choice, it's all worthless if it finishes fifth.

Not if you make the same bet over and over it isn't. This guy made a great bet, win or lose.

[LT Profits]

Yes, at 2-1 odds, it may actually be best to flip a coin on every single game without opinionating anything and then look for the best line on the "coin" play.

[Jmoiz888]

Haha very good bet for you

[clarkacal]

Unfortunately there is no line shopping. We agreed I have to use closing lines at one book the entire season so its easier to keep track of. It won't matter what book since Ill be flipping a coin anyway..

[EvilDaveJr]

1. pick bodog or sia. 2. compare the pinnacle line to the bodog/sia line. 3. collect the $1000.

I'm not sure how big a favorite you are, but I think it could be as high as 10/1 or 20/1 or possibly even higher. Oh, and these two books shade favorites, so, you'll be picking almost exclusively underdogs. You may even consider making additional bets offering to pick 51% or 52%, because it will be that easy!

[clarkacal]

After nfl week 1 with this bet I am 6-9-1...