Originally Posted by
Pokerjoe
Here's the basic conundrum: the smaller the set, the less valid the results, obv. But the further back in time you go to build a bigger set, the less relevant the data is to the current environment. And game environments change in subtle ways. It isn't only things as obvious as the NFL adopting the 2pt conversion.
Often, things work (say, certain passing strategies) only until other coaches see that they work and adopt countering defensive measures. No rule change, just, first, a change of offensive strategy (maybe leading you to say, hey, teams with this offensive strategy/statistical pattern have covered like crazy for the last two years!) followed by a corresponding and countering change in defensive strategy (which is implemented just as you start betting on the offensive strategy).
There is no Holy Grail.