[Darwin]

Looking for a little help with this. I have went back and found a Excel Probabitity Calculator that Ganchrow developed. After tinkering with it on the Lakers-Suns series I realized that no 2 people will have the same number with projecting out the potential lines (Maybe everyone else will have the same numbers and it is just me that is off).

I ended up using the following but am looking for any input on what thinking is flawed on my part. Using the spreadsheet you are asked to put in the win percentage for each game.

Lakers game 1 (74.68)
Lakers game 2 (72.22)
Suns game 3 (61.09)
Suns game 4 (57.45)
Lakers game 5 (73.34)
Suns game 6 (59.18)
Lakers game 7 (73.34)

I used the Lakers as a 6.5 pt fav in game 1 and 5.5 pt fav in game 2 and 6 pt fav in games 5 and 7. With Phoe I used them as a 3.5 pt fav in game 3 and 2.5 pt fav in game 4 and finished with them as a 3 pt fav in game 6. Here are the results it kicked out:

Lakers in 4 +1019
Lakers in 5 +319
Lakers in 6 +557
Lakers in 7 +334
Suns in 4 +3950
Suns in 5 +2093
Suns in 6 +636
Suns in 7 +1101

Most of these seem in line with exception to Lakers in 4 and Lakers in 6 (Which is a scalp with 5Dimes offering a YES-NO price). Is there more to these than just projecting a possible spread and calculating? Any input would be appreciated.

[sharpcat]

I would say that everybody would have a different prediction of win probability per game and making predictions like this can never be 100% accurate. If you are not deriving your win probability using a database of past statistics than you are basically just throwing out a wild guess and if you are using a large database than you are basically throwing out an educated guess. Database projections are going to give you much more consistent #'s which if over time can be tweaked and fine tuned. If you are just tossing out random guesses for each game you might as well not even waste your time.