[mizzoujohn]

any rhyme or reason to line movements in MLB? For instance, I bet onthe cubs the other night at -150/+140 and in the morning i woke up and they were -190/+180 so I bet the +180 for guaranteed winnings. Do books frown upon this, and is there a way to predict the movement (towards public teams, etc)?
John

[mizzoujohn]

???

[ForgetWallStreet]

and in the morning i woke up and they were -190/+180 so I bet the +180 for guaranteed winnings.

You aren't guaranteeing yourself anything other than a negative R.O.I. on average with this sort of bet. Here's a tip: Current line > opening line in terms of accuracy.

[DeluxeLiner]

If you just let it play out you will make more money in the long run by beating the closing number...when you did that arb you still had to pay double vig.

[Peeig]

You had way the best of it.....just let it ride!!!

[LT Profits]

You aren't guaranteeing yourself anything other than a negative R.O.I. on average with this sort of bet.

How is a negative ROI possible when he would never lose? If he best the same amount both ways, he would either win of break even. Ideally, when the scalp became available, he should have bet the amount necessary to guarantee a profit regardless of the result. Either way, I don't see how a -ROI is possible.

Note that this response is for people that scalp regularly. Me personally, I would have just let the original bet ride, but that is beside the point.

[ForgetWallStreet]

How is a negative ROI possible when he would never lose? If he best the same amount both ways, he would either win of break even. Ideally, when the scalp became available, he should have bet the amount necessary to guarantee a profit regardless of the result. Either way, I don't see how a -ROI is possible.

Note that this response is for people that scalp regularly. Me personally, I would have just let the original bet ride, but that is beside the point.

Misread OP, my bad.

[durito]

Lines move towards fair value.

Just figure out what that is and you're set for life.

[mizzoujohn]

What do you guys think of the strategy of placing bets on, say, every favorite at night (now), then before game time place bets the other way on the lines that moved that way, thus guaranteeing a profit in those games, and letting the other games ride (where theoretcally over a large enough sample size should be just under 50% ROI I guess?

Would your arb's (is that the right term) to overcome what you are losing blindly sticking with your bets that you didnt hedge?
JOhn

[Justin7]

The line moved based on new information - probably one team resting one or more starters.

[Carson05]

hey justin can you make a video or tell us how you go about placing a typical bet?

i.e. the progression from becoming aware of the game, to actually placing the bet

for example i look at the odds for an MLB game, then i read up on both starters, and look at the teams performance, get an idea of what i think is going to happen in the game, go back and look at the odds, if pinnacle moves significantly in the direction i'm leaning, i then put in the bet at my book.

[Justin7]

hey justin can you make a video or tell us how you go about placing a typical bet?

i.e. the progression from becoming aware of the game, to actually placing the bet

for example i look at the odds for an MLB game, then i read up on both starters, and look at the teams performance, get an idea of what i think is going to happen in the game, go back and look at the odds, if pinnacle moves significantly in the direction i'm leaning, i then put in the bet at my book.

On Wednesday morning, I start reviewing injuries and possible lineup changes. I make my best guess for Thursday's lineups (obviously short a lot of information). I get the starting pitchers from Don Best. I'll usually have all the Thursday games priced an hour before openers come out. On totals, I want to bet as soon as the opener comes out.

On sides, I try to bet on game day before any injuries or lineups are announced. If you are trading at Matchbook, you MUST take down any offers when the lineup is released, or you will get consistently screwed. MB is very important for MLB - if you put up offers and know what you are doing, you're basically paying no juice at all... A 50.5% handicapper could win there. But there isn't any liquidity until gameday, 11am-ish.

Totals though - they are so easy to beat, you lose too much value waiting for game day to bet these.

[Carson05]

hey thanks justin
i've been leaning on putting some money in matchbook, but haven't gotten around to doing it.

do you bet totals more so than moneylines?

[Justin7]

do you bet totals more so than moneylines?

Check my spreadsheet. I do both - a little more ML bets, but totals bets are typically bigger.