[IrishTim]

Suppose you have an MLB database with a column that has a game's total and then another column right next to it with the payout odds on the over. Now if you wanted to find the "average" total for a certain range, how would you adjust it based on the payout odds?

Obviously, I could just take the average for the raw totals and hope that it "evens out over time" but would prefer not to. Thanks, fellas.

[Maverick22]

Do you mean what is the SQL to find this? To filter out games where the Over odds were within a certain number range? And then find the average of the filtered results?

[IrishTim]

No, I know pretty much nothing when it comes to programming so the SQL couldn't be of much help. For instance, say I have two columns with the following in excel:

8.5 (-102)
9 (+105)
9 (-111)
10.5 (+106)
7 (-115)

Now what would be the "average" total for this range?

Assume Pinnacle closing line (10 cent totals generally).

[skrtelfan]

Convert them to vig free lines and use push percentages to make them into a decimal. ov9 -111/un 9 +101 is roughly ov9 -106 vig free. The 9 pushes about 10% of the time (varies a little based on whether the home team is favored and by how much they're favored, but 10% is pretty close in general), so the difference between 9 and 9.5 is about 5%. -106 is about 51.5%, so it's reasonably accurate to say ov9 -106 vig free is 9.15.

[IrishTim]

That's what I was looking for, thanks skrtelfan. I'm pissed I couldn't figure it out for myself, but I'll just use the excuse that I'm wiped from exams.

I didn't think the MLs really affected the total (it makes more sense to me the other way around) and I've never used it to make my push charts. For the record, I have a push rate of 10.45% on the "9" in MLB.