[vd1000]

Does someone know how often a home favorite wins in baseball. If a home team wins ?% of the time and a favorite wins ?% of the time then does that mean that a home favorite wins the sum of these two. Maybe some one knows what % a home favorite wins . I would also like to know if this is a dead end street . Everyone in this forum says that betting favorites will lose you money in the long run. Is this true ? Maybe some of you oldtimers can tell me from experience.

[sharpcat]

There is no way you could put an accurate # on this.

Only way you could look at this is to say (what % of home games does a home team favorite of -200 win?) which in this case will fall right at 67% long term which is the break even point.

[Justin7]

The home team wins 54% of the time.

How often do home favorites win? I bet a database could spit this out quickly. If I had to guess, I'd say 59%.

As far as dead-end streets, you need to determine the odds of an individual team winning before betting anything. If you don't have your own idea of the odds, you're guaranteed to lose in the long run.

[Maverick22]

I'll take a stab...

59.13% (+/-) 2.258

The 2.258% is due to me just noticing the site I scrape odds for is jacked for 39 games...

[Matweizman]

Subtract or tack on 30 points to the juice for the home team for baseball, 3 points for the NFL, 5.5 points for NBA, and 50 to the juice of NHL ... On avg

[heywoodu]

Just a question, how do you get stats like: "Home favorites win ...% of the time" or "Team A is 11-3 when playing as a road favourite".

Or with basketball something like: "Team X is 17-3 ATS in their last 20 road games playing as a 6+ points favourite"

I am really curious where people that tell that kind of things get their information, I guess they don't just watch to the list of results and find the odds and spreads, and then count. Game by game, that would take months for 2 months of NBA
So what is the best way to analyse stats in the way of the sentences above?

[Maverick22]

Just a question, how do you get stats like: "Home favorites win ...% of the time" or "Team A is 11-3 when playing as a road favourite". Or with basketball something like: "Team X is 17-3 ATS in their last 20 road games playing as a 6+ points favourite" I am really curious where people that tell that kind of things get their information, I guess they don't just watch to the list of results and find the odds and spreads, and then count. Game by game, that would take months for 2 months of NBA So what is the best way to analyse stats in the way of the sentences above?

The first thing that comes to mind: "How do you skin a cat?"


The next thing that came to mind was ... "depends how you have your data represented". If you have all the games compiled in say a spread sheet. You could filter on various columns... ( Assuming you have game odds, and the scores).

Getting rid of (filtering) games where:

1) the home team was the underdog (homeMoney Line > awayMoneyLine)
2)the home team didn't win (homeScore < awayScore )
( the order wouldn't matter )
Take the number of resulting rows... and divide it by the total (unfiltered) number of games.

if its a database...the sql could look like this:

select count(*) as HomeGamesWonAsFavorite
from Game
where (HomeMoneyLine < AwayMoneyLine) and (HomeScore > AwayScore)
and (Game.Season="Regular Season" or Game.Season="PostSeason")

Does that help (and make sense)?

[heywoodu]

The first thing that comes to mind: "How do you skin a cat?"


The next thing that came to mind was ... "depends how you have your data represented". If you have all the games compiled in say a spread sheet. You could filter on various columns... ( Assuming you have game odds, and the scores).

Getting rid of (filtering) games where:

1) the home team was the underdog (homeMoney Line > awayMoneyLine)
2)the home team didn't win (homeScore < awayScore )
( the order wouldn't matter )
Take the number of resulting rows... and divide it by the total (unfiltered) number of games.

if its a database...the sql could look like this:

select count(*) as HomeGamesWonAsFavorite
from Game
where (HomeMoneyLine < AwayMoneyLine) and (HomeScore > AwayScore)
and (Game.Season="Regular Season" or Game.Season="PostSeason")

Does that help (and make sense)?

I guess it isn't that hard, but for me there are 2 problems with this:

1) I dont have a database, and I dont have a clue on how to get it
2) I dont know so much about sql and things like that....(though maybe with some short internet course I can refresh it )

Thanks anyway for your attention!

[Maverick22]

Take A Read Here: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...-research.html

Read that...Decide just how much work do you want to put in...

If you decide you dont want to put in too much effort... LOL... :: shrug ::

If you decide you are willing to put in "As much work as it takes" and have your social life become nil... either shoot me a PM, or start a new thread titled something like "Building my first database" and i can answer all your questions there... And try to get you started.

[heywoodu]

Take A Read Here: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicappe...-research.html

Read that...Decide just how much work do you want to put in...

If you decide you dont want to put in too much effort... LOL... :: shrug ::

If you decide you are willing to put in "As much work as it takes" and have your social life become nil... either shoot me a PM, or start a new thread titled something like "Building my first database" and i can answer all your questions there... And try to get you started.

Thats a big piece of text for reading in the early morning now

I will start reading, and then decide if I want too put in effort

Anyway, thanks for the link!

[cankid]

thx for posting