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Props Question
Hi new to this forum but I have been looking around for a while
I’m interested in props because from what I have been reading it seems to be one of best ways to start off.
If I wanted to bet on Malkin vs Alfredsson - for most pts scored goal+assist in the nhl with odds of
Evgeni malkin-140
Daniel Alfredsson +110
Odds taken from The Greek
How do I work out if I am getting good odds on either player? Is there a formula that I can use?
Sorry if this is in the wrong forum
I do not understand the question. First of all, it is a terrible line. -140 to +110 is a rip off. Obviously you are only getting good odds on one of these players bacause there can only be one winner. Now as far as determining a formula that will tell you which odds are better for which player, I do not know of one. That is opinion.
LOLOriginally Posted by BigdaddyQH
Convert the ML to a percentage!!!!! (SBR TOOLS)
If you think the player has a higher % chance of winning than what the ML is saying than you are getting good odds.
not sure if props are a good way to start...I see them as 50/50 for the most part
On a related note who are the retards moving the $100 max hockey props at Greek before everyone else copies?
Compare expected points of each player using Poisson
If you have a slow moving prop shop, (way behind the Greek) is it worth it to blindly bet into that number?
Pinnacle has lebron james Over under 30.5 pts
his season average was 29.7
playoff average is 34.3
obviously the playoff average is based on 3 games so would it be fair to use the season average of 29.7 using the poisson calculator
is it expected that regular season numbers correlate to playoff numbers?
Last edited by rfr3sh; 04-24-10 at 11:22 PM.
So unhelpful and condescending...
Step 1: Take a look at this video by Justin7 regarding pricing a typical NFL prop. Further investigation into posts by him will give you a great insight into prop betting.
Basically, you need to look at each player to determine their likely output based on their career / season stats (both in general and against the specific opposing goaltender). Once you have an expected total for each player (decimal points matter!), compare the two to determine the probability each has in scoring more than the other. There are several ways to go about this. This will give you a probability for each player to use in your comparison.
Next, take those lines and convert them into implied probability using the SBR Tools Odds Converter. In your example:
Alfreddson: +110 = 100/(100+110) = 47.62%
Malkin: -140 = 140/(100+140) = 58.33%
These obviously don't equal 100% (58.33% + 47.62% = 105.95%), so you need to go through one more step to calculate the zero vig implied probability of the wager.
Malkin: 58.33/105.95 = 55.05%
Alfreddson: 47.62/105.95 = 44.95%
You can now compare your numbers for the two players with these implied probabilities and see where the value lies.
If you determined from your analysis that Malkin = 60% chance of winning & Alfreddson = 40% chance of winning, then the value would lie with Malkin. If, however, you determined it was a 50/50 chance for each, you'd be better off taking Alfreddson.
Hope that's helpful.
Last edited by suicidekings; 04-25-10 at 03:47 AM.
Better to use his season average against the Bulls than his overall average.
[COLOR=#000000 !important]If I thought I had an edge, I would most certainly bet those hockey props as the last thing in the world I would be concerned about is moving the lines causing some unknown party to get a worse price.[/COLOR]On a related note who are the retards moving the $100 max hockey props at Greek before everyone else copies?
Are you ****ing stupid? You would bet props at 15% edges or more (seen high 20s in the last few days) with a $100 max rather than waiting for just about every shop in the world to copy them at the same price where you can get $1500 down with very little effort? Obviously you aren't the one moving these.
Are you just throwing out random terms hoping you get one right? Please explain why you would go about finding the implied probability in your explanation.
Suicidekings, thanks for your helpful post it made alot sense. What i wondering though was once I have determined the expected total from each player how do I then work out the probability each has in scoring more than the other?
Using poission for both players expected scoring and comparing would be my approach
I would use Pythagorean Expectation (exponent = 2 for hockey) because it's simple, although maybe someone else can suggest a better method. I just went through the numbers and if I was capping this prop for an upcoming game (let's imagine) based on both season & series stats, I would approximate the numbers at:
Malkin: 1.33 pts
Alfreddson: 1.167 pts
and resulting in probabilities of:
Malkin: 1.33^2/(1.33^2+1.17^2) = 56.4%
Alfredsson: 1.17^2/(1.33^2+1.17^2) = 43.6%
Our numbers from before for comparing the available lines were:
Malkin: 58.33/105.95 = 55.05%
Alfreddson: 47.62/105.95 = 44.95%
__________________________________
So Malkin has a slight edge in this matchup, but you're really not getting much of a deal here. If you had hit it earlier you might have gotten a better price (I don't know what it opened at), but any value that was there evapourated. Malkin does have the advantage of having taken three times as many shots as Alfredsson in the series and being on a team that has taken an average of 8 more shots per game in the series. If I had to pick one I would have bet on Malkin, but stats-wise, the price was prohibitive in my opinion. It was basically a coin-flip (when you factor in the relative costs of each).
How else would you compare your numbers from the Malkin-Alfredsson matchup to the available lines? I'm applying material learned directly from Ganchrow's old posts. Feel free to offer an alternative approach to assessing the prop.
Points are not Poisson.
thanks for clarifying that
You would need to factor in team scoring somewhere since Pittsburgh scores more goals than Ottawa.
Divide player points game/team goals game for say the current season to get an average player points for each team goal.
Figure out the expected goals for each team (from the moneyline and total) for the game in question.
Multiply the two, from there use Poisson to derive the %'s.
basketball ≠ hockey
ok got you, whats the best book for props offered too? just curious maybe i will fool around with these a bit
Doing a vig-free implied probability has absolutely nothing to do with the problem. Why would you compare your numbers to the zero-vig line when you can't bet the zero-vig line? Calcing a zero-vig line is only ever useful if you are using a book as "the market" and finding a better line at another book or using it to bet derivatives of that market.
Anyway, it's pretty much been covered but NHL props are such a small market that even one or two extra people betting it with non-micro bankrolls will kill a ton of the value so I'd rather not give a direct explanation of how I value them. Poisson+Justin's videos pretty much tell you everything you need to know.
so poisson would be good to use for a prop such as "ray allen 3's made? over under 1.5"
and using regular season data has no relevance when bettign playoff props?
Yes
No. Regular season data is most certainly relevant.
ok thats what I thought thanks, so I guess with a bit of research player props can be pretty profitable hense low limits?
anyways after reading this thread i have these 3 bets pending not sure if they are +EV or not
19110512-2 4/25/2010 3:31 PM Total (fp) 9.00 15.75 Basketball - 7099 Jason Terry Total 3 Pointers Made/Jason Terry Total 3 Pointers Made. under 1½ +175 for Game
19110598-1 4/25/2010 3:34 PM Total (fp) 7.00 11.20 Basketball - 7107 Manu Ginobili Total Made 3 Pt FG/Manu Ginobili Total Made 3 Pt FG. under 1½ +160 for Game
19110598-2 4/25/2010 3:34 PM Total (fp) 5.60 4.00 Basketball - 7153 JR Smith Total 3 Point FG's/JR Smith Total 3 Point FG's. over 1½ -140 for Game
just put 50$ in an account today to fool around with this, and I used kelly to select my wager size, not sure if im on the right track
ok so I realized that I should not made a few of these bets because if i looked at away/home data rather then season data they were -EV
Last edited by rfr3sh; 04-25-10 at 11:19 PM.
Somebody knows their crap.
Last night Greek went off on the Camby total rebounds...12 UNDER -160.
5 Dimes went off on that prop...10 1/2 Over -160.
Camby gets 11 rebounds.
Wager details for ticket number 19132900-2:Somebody knows their crap. Last night Greek went off on the Camby total rebounds...12 UNDER -160. 5 Dimes went off on that prop...10 1/2 Over -160. Camby gets 11 rebounds.
Wager Type:Total *** Free Play ***Wager Status:Win
Selection:
Marcus Camby Total Rebounds/Marcus Camby Total rebounds 4/26/2010 10:35:01 PM - (EST)
Over 10½ -130
Nice hit!!
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