Matchbook moneyline:
CLE +125
CWS -126
Total: 8.5 (+111/-112)
Matchbook runline:
CLE +1.5 -168
CWS -1.5 +167
Given constraints:
IF away dog loses, margin is 1 run approximately 30% of the time (29.7% last 5 years at 8.5). 31.2% at 8 and 30.3% at 9.
P:CLE W= 44.36%
P:CWS W= 55.64%
Matchbook run line probabilities:
P:CLE +1.5= 62.6%
P:CWS -1.5= 37.4%
Matchbook moneyline probabilities + 1 run loss frequency
P:CLE L=55.64% * 30% (P:L 1 run) = 16.69%
P:CLE +1.5= 44.36% + 16.69% = 61.05%
P:CWS -1.5= 1-61.05% = 38.95%
Something isn't adding up. Numbers for CLE +1.5 seem too high at Matchbook (Tomato identifies value on CWS -1.5 of about 2.5%). Correct Tomato! Tomato guesses it's his calculated 1 run loss frequency that is the problem.