I realize people are just generalizing in saying everyone bets NFL, referring to sports bettors in general. However, I do not. Someday, I may, but until I can figure out a winning testable angle, I will not be placing my money on this sport.
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The internet allows the sharing of so much info that you have to wonder what difference if has made in betting over the last 30 years.Comment -
Me too Duke. I cap basketball, baseball and hockey. That's it. No football for me..Comment -
I've found success in previous NFL seasons by picking one or two teams to follow each season and cap the shlt out of them. Get to know their players, coaches, mood of the team, etc... I would get on the hometown's news websites and check daily about what they had to say about their team. A lot of the writers are biased towards their team of course, but still a lot of good information out their that you wont see on ESPN or whatever stat site you may use to cap your games.Comment -
things that go BUMP in the night..... like this thread.
i think it's beatable but not highly beatable....... energy and time is best spent elsewhere. much of that is the relative efficiency but other leagues have so many more game dates. it's great to go to vegas and bet on nba, nhl, mlb games every day in-season.
i see the comment english premiership is more analyzed bet-wise than NFL. i find that really hard to believe. my googling has never brought up remotely near the analytics that there is for the NFL.... england is definitely much more bet-intensive culture, with bookies on high street and a major horse racing culture.... i know it's a long shot but could the person who posted on EPL point me to some good sites, as i think something like ties is underbet.Comment -
i think almost all the factors that make nfl just as beatable as other sports are there. behavoural factors of teams and bettors.
BUT, so few games, so much attention, not that much variation in scores and/or ATS covers...... games go pretty close to form i think. and tons of betting generally interested and/or bet on few number of games. things like nfl pools are huge. they help bring up the entire nfl knowledge level even if those people don't bet games.Comment -
NFL has 1 huge problem
that is volume, you could have an edge and still get smoked in the NFL because of volume
the other is man lines are sharp, if you look at NFL ML compared to say NBA or NHL there is very little movement therefore space to win in the NFL.Comment -
I have a limited history and don't make that many bets, 1-2 spreads a week usually in NFL, but I've been up each year in the NFL playoffs, past 5 years.
Meanwhile I can say the opposite in anything hoops. Definitely down, past 5 years.Comment -
yes NFL you have 500 games a season say you can find bets on 10-15% of them that is 50 -75 games a year. it would be really hard with that small of a sample size to say, hey I am good at this or I suck. that is why we have so many 1 or 2 seasons NFL superstar bettors and then they just disappear. its the same with players, if a player has some amazing stats for a few weeks he looks like a HOFer for that season and then next season you dont even hear his name again.Comment -
Dan, thx for response....... that's a great point you make on volume of games and statistical significance. i didn't click on your link on spurrious correlation (or similar) in another thread but i think i will
i see pre-BUMP comments on betting limits vs. efficiency of sports.... i would think the correlation is very very high........ i have done this a few times and know others that do this. they find odds that are completely wrong and bet them. but then you find the limit is really low (like $50).
canadian college football was perfect example of very inefficient and low betting lines. a perennial horrible team hired a new coach and brought in 30-40 JC mature players (canadian college had this weird thing with tons of 28 year-olds playing but this team had never done it before). a team that lost many games by 40 points turned into a 50% WP team. big sports book had no idea so they lost $400 to 8 bettors or something similar. then the spread corrects really quickly....... lots of much smaller opportunities all the time. but very small $$$$$Comment -
another thing about market efficiency.
i used to play the improved NCAA football team for quite a few weeks in years past. now it seems like some perennial horrible team that has improved alot is now a favorite against a medicore team in week 4. seems like it didn't change that quickly in past.
internet chat rooms, good websites (teamrankings.com, statfox.com etc.) and analysis engines has changed thingsComment -
the big thing with football is it would take a really long time to know if you are good or not, that to me is scary, if we are talking big bets not rec moneyComment -
I find it very beatable. I like the week long time table so that I can get the weather, look at the last few weeks of games involving the teams. Then after I decide who is going to cover for that week, I look at the history and trends before I plunk down the bet. Or you can just bet the home team on thursday night games that don't start the season, or are not in December, it's that easyComment -
yesComment -
I know this is an old thread. But this is a topic worth discussing.
There is so much interest around the NFL. How many secrets can there be?
Think twice when you want to bet $200 + the oddsmaker says "I'll take all u can eat."Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Closing line is extremely efficient in that market,you can get an idea of where you are sitting at according the mean deviation of your number vs the close after a certain period
P-Value ,Zscore etc are all fancy terms but nothing beats closing line evaluation specially in the big markets,if you are not beating the market you are one more fish feeding Billy Walters,and other syndicates/top prosComment -
bumping this thread only made me miss justin7 and sawyer
the tip of the sbr spear has been dulled
increased information = increased efficiency
nfl is covered 24/7 and nearly every piece of knowable information is known and represented in the line
tell me again how it is beatable
tell me again how faves of 3 points cover 45% of the time, don't cover 45% and push ~10% of the time. think it is actually 9.9% since 2000 or something like that. those are terribly inefficient numbers
have we never heard of claude motherfukkin shannon?!?! oh, but we all have our fingers up kelly's arsehole!! fukkin ridiculousComment -
Previous post is as informative as the large majority appearing in the Think Tank these days.Comment -
It is not that complicated. Most people get totally lost with the wealth of information available out there, be it good information or not. My way is simple. I have a system that is a proven winner year after year. It hits between 55-59%. That is not a lot, but it is consistent. The major problem with amateurs, like the vast majority you see in here, is the fact that they are too afraid to lose. Either they can not afford to lose the money they have wagered (which is most of the time), or they have some other mental macho problem that makes them afraid to lose. This is why they lose so much. If you and I each hit 55 wins out of 100 wagers, and you bet $100.00 and I bet $1000.00, I am going to win a lot more money than you are. It is that simple. It takes money to make money and the vast majority of you simply do not have that kind of money. Just find yourself a system that works, and do not be afraid to play it. Update the system but never change the system. There are way of beating the NFL if you stick to your guns, do NOT get emotionally involved in the games, DO NOT look for excuses when you lose (which is something you guys do ALL of the time) and account for all possibilities, not just the ones YOU think will happen. The more you guys think you know, the more you are going to lose.Comment -
I think allot of the post in this thread are coming at this league the wrong way. I've been playing the NfL and only the NFL for 20 years. It is all about not having too many bets. I pick 1 game a week that will determine whether or not I have a good week or a bad week. I then roll that main game into two other parlays, BUT the amount wiil be much lower. So let's say I place 2500 on the Clowns +4. My parlays will be the original bet on the Clowns along with another team or total for 350. So if the Clowns cover, the parlays wont sink me. In all, I'm taking the Clowns for 3200.
Or like I mentioned earlier, just take the home team on thursdays that don't start the season or occur in December.
Also think of the entire season instead of week to week.Comment -
unsure if you are taking shots, or are seriously miffed that i didn't write a 100,000 word post to distill years of learning.
but please, share your thoughts as to why nfl games with a spread of 3 Push 9.59% of the time?
while there is no need to devote your life to learning, you should at least spend a few hours reading about Claude Shannon, also known as the father of information theory. should naturally lead to Ed Thorp.
if that is too far down the road we can just start with looking up the definition of 'probability theory'.
you folks are frustrating as all get out cause you're busy tossing out insults while you stay on tilt.Comment -
I'm suggesting that you spend the entire week identifying the best game on the board side or total. Then play off of that game, with related parlays that will be small enough to not place you in the negative category if you lose them. If you lose the game you capped all week then dust yourself off for next week. If you have too many games you can't focus enough on any one game to catch an edge.
On any given week there is a shitload of work to be done. You can eliminate a few games right off the bat, and after looking at trends and situational events that will help your focus on the targeted plays. Then sometimes the line just isn't helpful so then you need to move to something else. Watching old games on nfl.com helps you capture how teams will attack other teams in certain situations. Still other factors such as needing the win also help. Desperation is a big motivation factor. How many upsets do you see in week 4 or5 from suck ass teams that have no chance going into the game.Comment -
Apologies. Previous post that I was referring to was written entirely in an Asian language. I did not quote it to save space. It was a sarcastic response. Unfortunately someone removed that post making it appear as though I was referencing yours.
I am familiar with all the sources you described. Your posts are worth reading.Comment -
dang it Bsims, now i am completely off balance, still unsure if this is just a masterful job of belittling me on your part or not
and in your defense, my post was just randomly strung together, bourbon fueled, one off thoughts.Comment -
false
why do you feel you should be the one doing the work? thousands upon thousands of bettors are signaling to you daily the outcome of their work.
i agree you have a fukkton of work to do until you can set a better line than Vegas on every game, (something i actively did for 5 seasons). if that task is too daunting, just let the market do the work for you. which should be the lesson everyone on SBR takes from this thread:
IF YOU AREN'T SETTING YOUR OWN LINES YOU'VE ALREADY LOST.Comment -
Yes, it seems like bettors aren't realizing that setting an arbitrary limit like that will inevitably lead to passing on +EV plays.
But the truth is, many of those bettors aren't understanding expected value and so are likely bettor off betting few games, even if it is arbitrary.Comment
