Thinking of ideas for the upcoming baseball season.. Lets say a baseball total for the NYM/SF opens at 8.5 Over +100.. and the number stays the same at 8.5 but the over climbs to +120. Do you think betting the totals that moves at least 10% could be profitable angle? (with the exception of extreme weather/pitching change related total changes).
... Betting which way? The odds are moving for a reason -- but i don't think betting either way solely on that move will be profitable. Certainly not enough to cover the VIG you're paying. Don't have the data to back this up, but shouldn't be too hard to run if you had opening and closing lines.
Betting only totals above +120 or higher that have moved 10% from the opening line. I know closing lines are more accurate than opening lines.. Just an opinion, but, i think totals are less predictable than sides of similar odds.. the vig on the pinnacle baseball lines is pretty low.. Maybe the correct price is more like +115?
Wait approximately 15 games per team played, compare the home/away over/under percentage for example in NHL today ( works for MLB and NHL)
New York rangers under percentage is 70.3%, their over percentage is 29.7
Tampa Bay under percentage is 59.5%, their over percentage is 40.5
Add both under percentages and divide by 2, 70.3+59.5=129.8 divided by 2 = 64.9%
Add both over percentages and divide by 2 , 29.7+40.5 = 70.2 divided by 2 = 35.1%
To make a Euro line take 1 divided by the percentage to get a line , for under 1 divided by 0.649 = 1.54
for over 1 divided by 0.351 = 2.85
Book Line ( thegreek.com) had an under line of 1.77 and an over line of 2.10
Take the book line minus the line you generated Under = 1.77-1.54 = +23, Over 2.10-2.85 = -75
Add the numbers +23 plus -75 with a you get 98
do this for all games on the board and play the highest number. BTW this was a winner but the highest line for today is Calgary/Colorado Under with a number of 101. Looking good so far tied at zero in the 2nd period.
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