Some good advice above. To add a couple points of my own:
- I see that you're wagering on a variety of sports, and that might feel like you're making your best bets across the spectrum, giving you an edge. I would say that this is actually not the case, and you'd probably be better served to focus your attention on one sport to begin.
- Use of ATS stats isn't a great indicator for capping games as all the context is lost. For example: The Dallas Mavericks have a terrible home ATS record, but in how many of those games were they double digit faves? How much does that record factor in when considering a game in which they are only a small home fave? Your first step should be assessing what a fair line for a matchup
should be before turning your attention to the lines the books are offering.
- Fading the public via sports insights data is not a strategy in itself, however it can be a useful element to handicapping. JM System plays can skew public bets, as can the relative popularity of the teams involved. When the Lakers or the Cavs play the Nets is it suspicious when they're -10 point road faves, yet are still getting 80% of the bets? Not really...
- I would say the most important thing to keep in mind when capping games is to try to put yourself in the mind of the linemakers. When setting the openers, books start by generating a fair line based on statistics, but then make an additional step, adjusting the line so that in their estimation, it will produce equal action on both sides (estimating public perception), which will guarantee their profit margin from the vigorish. Your primary goal should be to determine how much the line deviates from a fair line and what the underlying reasons for the difference are. From there, you can use additional filters such as injuries and schedule (B2B games, etc) to determine which side of a particular line has the value.
It's always better to be on the side the books think are going to win. The trick is figuring out which side that is.