1. 03-19-10 11:29 AM #1
    runnershane14
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    MLB: Innings per game ?

    Should I use the average of 8.5 and 9 inning games or total innings/game to use for runs projected for game?
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  2. 03-19-10 11:35 AM #2
    Z_Wipf
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    Wont those numbers be the same? If not, explain
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  3. 03-19-10 11:44 AM #3
    runnershane14
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    Total innings/game would include extra innings. In most instances games are either 8.5 or 9 innings and I feel like using 8.5 or 9 inning average would understate my projection and total innings/game would overstate my projection for that one game. Correct me if I am wrong please and hopefully that made sense.
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  4. 03-19-10 12:05 PM #4
    Z_Wipf
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    Alright that makes sense. What about calculating average runs per inning, that way you cover short and extra innings
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  5. 03-19-10 03:33 PM #5
    Miz
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    I may be misunderstanding the question but...

    If you are trying to predict totals based on some set of input stats then I think you need to consider the side ML in your calculations. On average, the bottom of the ninth is worth about 0.5 runs. I think you need to consider the likelihood that the home team will be leading after the 8th inning (and hold the lead), which can be estimated by using the side ML. Maybe you could add a portion of a run that is directly linked to the ML of the side....

    for example if the home team is -200, then maybe only add ~0.15 runs to your projected total or something, if they are -150, maybe add 0.3, and so on.

    the exact prices and portions of a run are up to you and your research of course.

    You could run a query to find out how many games of a given price actually reach the bottom of the ninth too.

    I personally use more of a step function approach for that nuance, but there are many ways to skin a cat.

    just a couple thoughts. Good luck with it.
    Last edited by Miz; 03-19-10 at 04:34 PM.
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  6. 03-19-10 05:03 PM #6
    Justin7
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    I would use 8.75 innings. If you want a bit more power, figure out the odds of extra innings, and add about 1.5 runs if that happens.

    anyone know the average number of runs scored in the added innings?
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  7. 03-19-10 05:15 PM #7
    Dark Horse
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post

    anyone know the average number of runs scored in the added innings?

    No idea. Obviously more than 1, and probably less than 2. lol
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  8. 03-19-10 05:22 PM #8
    Willie Bee
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    Believe the average last season was around 12 extra inning games per team. Also believe there were appx. 20 games last year that were called/suspended, think the Red Sox played in three themselves. Never have figured out how to predict either from happening myself.
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  9. 03-19-10 05:29 PM #9
    Willie Bee
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    TEAM. Inn/G . XINN . Susp.
    NYY . 8.95. . 10 . . 0
    BOS . 8.86. . 10 . . 4
    TAM . 8.80. . .9 . . 1
    TOR . 8.95. . 20 . . 1
    BAL . 8.82. . 14 . . 2
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  10. 03-19-10 09:03 PM #10
    LucenaPosition
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    anyone know the average number of runs scored in the added innings?
    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Horse View Post
    No idea. Obviously more than 1, and probably less than 2. lol
    One of my crustier MLB databases pooped out 1.8 runs.
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  11. 03-19-10 10:25 PM #11
    knightof7
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    that extra half inning is kinda iffy. I think the closer tossing a perfect inning is the most likely to happen and if they do score some runs to comeback it may go to extra innings, then there'll be at least another more run coming in.
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  12. 03-19-10 10:44 PM #12
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by LucenaPosition View Post
    One of my crustier MLB databases pooped out 1.8 runs.
    Nice. What years does your DB cover?

    And what % of games go into extra innings?
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  13. 03-20-10 01:02 AM #13
    Dark Horse
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    Is there an advantage to not betting unders for even totals, and even totals plus 1/2?
    A 4-4 game (before OT) beats 8 and 8.5, but often pushes for 9.

    How often do games with 8, 8.5, 10, and 10.5 totals go OT?
    And what are the percentages for 4-4 and 5-5 games going over 9 and 11 respectively?
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  14. 03-20-10 01:35 AM #14
    ljump12
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    FWIW, i am creating a simulator, and once i added in the possibility of extra innings (meaning it could have ended in a tie before) -- it added .7 Runs to the total... Don't place too much faith in it, but something to consider.
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  15. 03-20-10 08:40 AM #15
    Pancho sanza
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    I would use 8.75 innings. If you want a bit more power, figure out the odds of extra innings, and add about 1.5 runs if that happens.

    anyone know the average number of runs scored in the added innings?
    I get 1.85 over the last 37 years, a little more than 6000 games which went into extras.
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  16. 03-20-10 09:26 AM #16
    runnershane14
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    thanks for the responses guys..very helpful
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  17. 03-20-10 12:53 PM #17
    CFA
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    My database shows the following
    Excluding extra inning games= 8.73 innings per game
    Including extra inning games= 8.84 innings per game.
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  18. 03-21-10 12:30 PM #18
    Wrecktangle
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    LucenaPosition = obviously a chess player
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  19. 03-22-10 12:23 PM #19
    Megaman
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    ...
    Last edited by Megaman; 03-22-10 at 05:44 PM. Reason: Stupid
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