[Dark Horse]

I have a pretty good method for NBA totals. I only play if for part of the season, and going back to last season it is a recorded 42-15 ATS. *

The method combines several angles, which limits the number of plays. However, just one ingredient -the projected score- correctly forecasts the vast majority of line movements. I only noticed this recently, because I wasn't really interested in that aspect before. Today it has 9 out of 11 line movements for totals in the right direction.

What are the best ways to cash in on correctly predicted line movements? Sell them back at an exchange? Middle them? Or should I be content with 'the market confirming the plays', and let them roll? Other?



* 42-15 over/under http://contests.covers.com/Sportscon...1738&sportid=9

[CFA]

Define cash in.

[Dark Horse]

Cash in? Anything that's not scalping.

I'm wondering if I've undervalued the importance of line movement in my favor. Someone like Justin seems to refer to it almost as a qualifier. (The opposite being the market rejecting a bet with a line movement in the other direction). I wouldn't dramatically increase my number of plays until I had a clear understanding of this topic, so, for lack of a better name, I'm about to kick off a new research topic: 'pregame action points'.

hopefully I'll soon be amazed why the hell I didn't look at this seriously before.

[xyz]

How many points are the line moves on average? I think that would determine your edge if you bet with your model prior to the moves.

[LT Profits]

Good job!

Just hold on to original plays unless lines move SO much that other side becomes +EV.

[Justin7]

If you have a quantitative approach that correctly predicts line movement at least 60% of the time, your approach is probably valid. When you hit 70%, it is valid, and you should be bombing away on it.

[Fippy]

So what you are saying is, that you can beat the openers at BM/Greek/Pin for NBA totals on certain games with a pretty high reliability?
Nice, you should be on your own island in the Caribic by now.

[TheLock]

I'd be really interested to hear how this works out for you down the road DH

[Justin7]

So what you are saying is, that you can beat the openers at BM/Greek/Pin for NBA totals on certain games with a pretty high reliability?
Nice, you should be on your own island in the Caribic by now.

Openers have low limits. If you are holding 6% with 3k limits, you're making 180 a game. With 100 plays, that's 18k a year. It's a start to an honest sports betting living, but not close to getting our own island.

Winning sports bettors have lots of ways to get 3-6%, and keep adding things to their arsenal.

[Dark Horse]

Just to be clear. The method I use is much more selective than the line movement only. I'm looking at possibly adding a lot more plays based on predicted total score. But today is a good example of why I haven't looked at pregame line movement more seriously. As mentioned, 9 out of 11 totals had the correct line movement. But so far, with 8 out of 11 totals in, corresponding plays would have been just 1-7... lol My early assessment would be that the public is not very sharp where it comes to totals.

So, unless today is very uncharacteristic, the only way I could use this added angle is in pregame trading. Or betting both sides. Am I missing something?

[Justin7]

Dark,

If the lines are consistently moving in the direction your scoring model predicts, you have the best of it. You would have gone 1-7 today, so what? You're going to win 53% + long term (depending on the degree of line agreement). If you are selective in your plays based on a totals model, and the market moves agree with you, you*are* going to win given enough plays.

[Fippy]

Openers have low limits. If you are holding 6% with 3k limits, you're making 180 a game. With 100 plays, that's 18k a year. It's a start to an honest sports betting living, but not close to getting our own island.

Winning sports bettors have lots of ways to get 3-6%, and keep adding things to their arsenal.

Low limits, well...if you have accounts at all the books that have nba totals before those major line movements, iam sure you can place much more than that.
It's the NBA after all, if iam not mistaken Pinny alone lets you bet 3k a pop on openers...

I just don't see how this is possible. How can you beat them like that on a major sport like the NBA? What you are saying is just crazy, sorry.

[Dark Horse]

Justin,

I'm not sure I understand the reasoning. Why would I have the best of it just because lines move in my favor (without any regard for how sharp the betting public is in the particular market). Maybe the reason that my more in-depth method is beating the totals rather easily is that the betting public isn't very sharp where it comes to NBA totals. I understand the general concept of the market rejecting a bet, and vice versa, but I don't know how to quantify that. Are you saying the principle is the same for any market? No difference, in other words, between NFL sides and NBA totals?

[Fippy]

You think they move because of the public? Ìn the NBA?
This sounds more and more like bullshit, but i'll leave you guys alone with it now before i get a warning xD

[Dark Horse]

No Fippy, I'm trying to come to terms with a concept I hadn't given much thought to before. AKA learning something new. So if you could spread your static somewhere else, that would be helpful. Since you already know everything anyway, why waste your time here?

[CondorHero]

To answer this question, you would have to track how often the line movement wins.

Then it's just a matter of figuring out which is more profitable. If the direction of the line movement proves to be winning the majority of the time, then you should just ride the game out. Otherwise, buy back as cheap as you can.

Buying back also has the advantage in that it has lower variance because you're locking in your profits before the game even begins which means less chance to go bankrupt due to a bad luck losing streak.

Just curious, what is the average line movement that we're talking about here? 1-2 points?

[LT Profits]

So what you are saying is, that you can beat the openers at BM/Greek/Pin for NBA totals on certain games with a pretty high reliability?
Nice, you should be on your own island in the Caribic by now.

He is not saying he beats openers 70% of the time, he is saying that by betting openers, he is beating the closing number 70% of the time because that is how often the totals move in his favor.

Anyone that beats closers that consistently will win long term.

[Dark Horse]

To answer this question, you would have to track how often the line movement wins.

Then it's just a matter of figuring out which is more profitable. If the direction of the line movement proves to be winning the majority of the time, then you should just ride the game out. Otherwise, buy back as cheap as you can.

Buying back also has the advantage in that it has lower variance because you're locking in your profits before the game even begins which means less chance to go bankrupt due to a bad luck losing streak.

Just curious, what is the average line movement that we're talking about here? 1-2 points?

I'm thinking there are two different discussions. One is the direction of the line movement. And the other is how many points.
The line movements for totals tend to be small. Today's average was about 1.7 pts. So less than a basket. Not exactly middling material.

I'm more interested in Justin's statement that if you can predict the correct line movement at a high enough percentage you should bomb away. I like the sound of that, but would like to understand it better.

[Fippy]

Lol whatever, seems like everyone is buying this story of someone beating NBA (!!!) lines like that. Of course he cannot give specific examples either

[LT Profits]

Lol whatever, seems like everyone is buying this story of someone beating NBA (!!!) lines like that. Of course he cannot give specific examples either

Yes he did, he gave a link to his plays. 16-6 this year and 26-9 last year for 42-15.

[Justin7]

Lol whatever, seems like everyone is buying this story of someone beating NBA (!!!) lines like that. Of course he cannot give specific examples either

Fippy,

Do you have ANY CLUE how openers are set? Books don't care how good they are, as long as they are in the ball park. If a total is 3 points off and it takes 3 bets (at low overnight limits) to get it right, the book doesn't give a rat's ass. They would rather have one in 10 games with a bad line (off 3 points) and pay Dark Horse his 8% equity on that early small bet. The alternative is to spend hours generating a more perfect line for each game.

Books that offer overnights NEED Dark Horse and other sharps to pound them into shape.

NBA and NFL are damn tough to beat, unless you're betting openers.

If you beat

[LT Profits]

Fukking touts, let me guess at least 1 of you runs a scam service?

Did you even read Justn's last post? He is 100% correct.

[Justin7]

I'm thinking there are two different discussions. One is the direction of the line movement. And the other is how many points.
The line movements for totals tend to be small. Today's average was about 1.7 pts. So less than a basket. Not exactly middling material.

I'm more interested in Justin's statement that if you can predict the correct line movement at a high enough percentage you should bomb away. I like the sound of that, but would like to understand it better.

There are two components to a player's advantage if he is predicting line movement. One is the actual move. If a total moves 1.7 points, and each point hits about 2.5%, you're already hitting 54%.

The second component is "market inefficiency". Assume a total opens at 190, and closes at 191.5. The "fair" number was probably 192 or 192.5, but it didn't get there. The sharps that know don't chase it that far (well, maybe at Matchbook with a lower commission). If you bet over 190 -105, and the fair number is 192, you're going to retire on that if the market doesn't figure out what you're doing.

And guess what: you're not competing against the big syndicates when betting overnights. You're up against some sharps climbing the learning curve, not the ones with the best answers (whose bankroll has grown so much, they don't bother betting until limits are much higher).

Openers don't draw the Warren Buffets of the gambling world, and they are MUCH more beatable than painted lines.

[Fippy]

Bullshit, if they wouldn't care about openers in the NBA the limits wouldn't start at 3k. Do you think we are all stupid? BM, Greek and Pinny adjust the line so they all have a very similiar opener, and here come our smart SBR guys and say that they are smarter than the consensus of those 3 books.
And LT, your avatar suggest that you are one of those touts anyway.
And DH is prolly on a way to go this route, or he wouldn't call a lucky run a "system that he didn't notice before". Thanks for the laugh thou

[Dark Horse]

There are two components to a player's advantage if he is predicting line movement. One is the actual move. If a total moves 1.7 points, and each point hits about 2.5%, you're already hitting 54%.

The second component is "market inefficiency". Assume a total opens at 190, and closes at 191.5. The "fair" number was probably 192 or 192.5, but it didn't get there. The sharps that know don't chase it that far (well, maybe at Matchbook with a lower commission). If you bet over 190 -105, and the fair number is 192, you're going to retire on that if the market doesn't figure out what you're doing.

And guess what: you're not competing against the big syndicates when betting overnights. You're up against some sharps climbing the learning curve, not the ones with the best answers (whose bankroll has grown so much, they don't bother betting until limits are much higher).

Openers don't draw the Warren Buffets of the gambling world, and they are MUCH more beatable than painted lines.

Thanks for that. I'll chew on that for a while.

[LT Profits]

Bullshit, if they wouldn't care about openers in the NBA the limits wouldn't start at 3k. Do you think we are all stupid? BM, Greek and Pinny adjust the line so they all have a very similiar opener, and here come our smart SBR guys and say that they are smarter than the consensus of those 3 books.

I'm not following. They start with low limits and transition to high limits after sharps tighten up their overnight numbers, which are the numbers Dark Horse is betting into, What's so unreasonable about that?

And LT, your avatar suggest that you are one of those touts anyway.

HUH? Those are my kids in my avatar.

[Dark Horse]

I feel poetic.

Ignore the troll
He'll crawl
Back in his hole

With a little luck this could be a haiku...

[Wrecktangle]

DH, are you seeing a consistent trend across the season on average? My totals are lumpy: early season do well: flat around Christmas and around All star and somewhat lower in 2nd half.

[Fippy]

I'm not following. They start with low limits and transition to high limits after sharps tighten up their overnight numbers, which are the numbers Dark Horse is betting into, What's so unreasonable about that?

JESUS CHRIST they don't start with low limits on NBA totals, how often do i have to repeat that. Unless you consider THREE THOUSAND as low, and their everydays gift to all you sharp cookies that can shit sharp total numbers like gold coins

[LT Profits]

Yes, 3K is low for Pinnacle. They cater to sharps, which apparently you know nothing about.

Now move on to Players Talk son, you are obviously out ot your league here.

[Fippy]

3K is not low if the full limit is 5k, "son". You wanna see low limits, take a look at their boxing lines, they opened the Klitschko fight with $50 max. That tells me enough about what they really do not care about, NBA openers can't be a part of that thou.

But I just received a warning from Justin per pm, and i'll gonna respect that and not post in this part anymore.
You're right, i have no business here, too many smart people and touts around.
Btw i find it sad that all those touts are allowed to walk around freely, they are a real danger unlike me who is just a guy that gets pissed sometimes when people talk bullshit that other people can easily fall for.

[Cheese1976]

Bullshit, if they wouldn't care about openers in the NBA the limits wouldn't start at 3k. Do you think we are all stupid? BM, Greek and Pinny adjust the line so they all have a very similiar opener, and here come our smart SBR guys and say that they are smarter than the consensus of those 3 books. And LT, your avatar suggest that you are one of those touts anyway. And DH is prolly on a way to go this route, or he wouldn't call a lucky run a "system that he didn't notice before". Thanks for the laugh thou

I wouldn't say bookmaker has a similar opener to these other books - it comes out much sooner, and much of the time varies greatly from the number put out later by Pinnacle and greek

[Peeig]

lots o knowledge in this thread............an actual Think Tank thread!!

[Dark Horse]

DH, are you seeing a consistent trend across the season on average? My totals are lumpy: early season do well: flat around Christmas and around All star and somewhat lower in 2nd half.

I only play the totals system from the start of February. There definitely are different chapters to the NBA season, each with their own motivational character.

As to the line movement itself, yesterday wouldn't have been a good time to jump in. Today, another 2-0 added to correctly predicted movement. I'm going to go back over the data of the past few years to determine how often the line movement is in the direction of the winning total. I can't assume it's a set percentage, just because I get a point or two. That would be great for sides, though. Do you have long term push frequencies for NBA totals?

[Dark Horse]

Found them.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basket...equencies.html

Thanks LT. Wondered what had happened to them.