1. #1
    nash13
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    Staking Optimization

    Hello everyone,

    i have a theoretical question. Let's make some assumptions first before coming to the point.
    a) I bet a very high volume of games. It is possible that i bet more than 30-40 bets per day, when using NCAAF or NCAAB as selected sports.
    b) I want to adjust the stakes on a daily basis.

    I have made two different charts.
    Chart 1 is for Flat Stakes
    Chart 2 is using % of the Bank as staking.

    Image of the charts.
    https://ibb.co/P4wsmwk


    So how would you, based on the Avg Odds, find out about an optimized percentage to use for the Percentagewise Staking.
    So that the Bank is holding up against variance.
    10% of the bank would cost too much when loosing, while 0.01% would leave too much of the possible winngs aside.
    Just for calculations. Let's say we have a WP of
    a) 53% and odds of 2.00. (a winning bettor)
    b) 49% WP and odds of 1.95. (a loosing bettor)

    Last edited by nash13; 11-29-22 at 04:16 PM.

  2. #2
    TommieGunshot
    TommieGunshot's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-27-12
    Posts: 1,543
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    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    Just for calculations. Let's say we have a WP of
    a) 53% and odds of 2.00. (a winning bettor)
    b) 49% WP and odds of 1.95. (a loosing bettor)
    a) no more than 6%.

    b) no more than 0%.

  3. #3
    J. v. Neumann
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    Join Date: 12-31-21
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    Here's a graph for 30 bets being played, case a being assumed for each of them. This gives a first orientation for the risk quantification per day...


    So for example, the risk of losing even 20 or more of the 30 bets is summing up all the bars from left to the 10 which is approx. 0.024, since 1/0.024 = 42, that means you would even lose 20 of the 30 bets once in 42 days (if playing 30 bets every day).
    Last edited by J. v. Neumann; 11-30-22 at 08:34 PM.
    Points Awarded:

    nash13 gave J. v. Neumann 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


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