[dimon]

Hey guys,

Hope to hear some advice with my education process with teasers.

Many knows how to play them...BS cross both number 3, 7 etc. RD +4.5-+6, HF of 7-9.

Obviously I use Pinnacle to determine the plays, Justin7 was a great help to me, but he is a busy man, and I came to the forum to ask for some help.

Now I want to learn the following, at what odds will play.

BS if at pinny +2.5 is +100, -101 or worse it is a play, if it is +101 or better no play.

So now, how you determine the odds for RD of +4.5-+6 (+4.5 at +100 or worse???)

And the same question for the HF of 7-9 (at what odds it is a play and when just pass)

Thanks for the help guys.

[Pancho sanza]

Hey guys,

Hope to hear some advice with my education process with teasers.

Many knows how to play them...BS cross both number 3, 7 etc. RD +4.5-+6, HF of 7-9.

Obviously I use Pinnacle to determine the plays, Justin7 was a great help to me, but he is a busy man, and I came to the forum to ask for some help.

Now I want to learn the following, at what odds will play.

BS if at pinny +2.5 is +100, -101 or worse it is a play, if it is +101 or better no play.

So now, how you determine the odds for RD of +4.5-+6 (+4.5 at +100 or worse???)

And the same question for the HF of 7-9 (at what odds it is a play and when just pass)

Thanks for the help guys.

Why no play on the +2.5 if it is over +101, what if the total on that game is very low, say under 35?

Use the moneyline, and then make adjustments.

If a game is lined -7.5, what is the ML on that game? From there adjust for the 1 point wins, which are losses for 6 point teaser purposes.

Do the same with dogs, add the outright wins (calculated off the ML) and the losses that stay within the teaser range.

[Bill the cop]

[quote=dimon;6811449]Hey guys,

Hope to hear some advice with my education process with teasers.

Many knows how to play them...BS cross both number 3, 7 etc. RD +4.5-+6, HF of 7-9.

Obviously I use Pinnacle to determine the plays, Justin7 was a great help to me, but he is a busy man, and I came to the forum to ask for some help.

Now I want to learn the following, at what odds will play.

BS if at pinny +2.5 is +100, -101 or worse it is a play, if it is +101 or better no play.

So now, how you determine the odds for RD of +4.5-+6 (+4.5 at +100 or worse???)

If you have identified profitable teaser subsets (which I think you have), I'd be more concerned with the payoffs, not the odds. If you find a place that offers even money on 2 teamers, or +300 on 4 teamers, or +180 on 3 teamers, those are the places to bet.

[Peregrine Stoop]

OP, familiarize yourself with push charts and learn how to use them

[dimon]

thank you guys...if you have some place where I can read more about the subject, it will be great if you can share it as well...thanks again

[dimon]

Bill the cop...did not know that you are on this forum as well...was reading your post on other forum, and got lots of info...I am not sure about the RD of 4.5 aceptable odds are...and this is my main reason why I started the thread...I am not sure what the odds will be playable for the HF of 7 as well...if you can help me to understand this concept it would be great...thanks in advance

[Bill the cop]

Bill the cop...did not know that you are on this forum as well...was reading your post on other forum, and got lots of info...I am not sure about the RD of 4.5 aceptable odds are...and this is my main reason why I started the thread...I am not sure what the odds will be playable for the HF of 7 as well...if you can help me to understand this concept it would be great...thanks in advance

Dimon, I suggest you go back a few pages to a post by Justin7 "Understanding Teasers" (9-10-10). In post #29 I may have answered several of your questions in that thread.

[trixtrix]

total matters, the lower the total the more preference you should give to the games that are a marginal play originally.

[donjuan]

RD +4.5 to +6 is pretty atrocious if you have any clue what you're doing.

[dimon]

atrocious for who?

[NY Playa]

best advice on teasers....DONT TEASE

[donjuan]

atrocious for who?

The bettor's bankroll. It's data mining of the worst kind. If it's remotely profitable going forward, you'd be much better off just betting them on the spread rather than teasing. DUCY?

[donjuan]

best advice on teasers....DONT TEASE

Best advice on posting; DON'T POST.

[jgilmartin]

Best advice on posting; DON'T POST.

[Peregrine Stoop]

best advice on teasers....DONT TEASE

terrible, terrible advice

there are some good teasers out there and it's been public knowledge for quite some time

[Bill the cop]

The bettor's bankroll. It's data mining of the worst kind. If it's remotely profitable going forward, you'd be much better off just betting them on the spread rather than teasing. DUCY?

Atrocious bet, data mining, better bet ATS, etc., etc.
I've heard it all before. But let's look at the facts and the history
of this teaser subset.
In 2004 I did research on how the RD+4.5 to +6 had done historically.
I was interested in back testing this subset because a capper I respected would



often reccomend a RD+4.5 to +6 teased up. The theory was that these small dogs
given the extra points and the dynamics of getting more than 10 points
would cover at a +EV rate.

The analysis of the in-sample was encouraging. From 1994 to 2004 the subset
went 235-83-1 for 73.9%. Although the sample size was only 319, I felt
it was sufficient to start betting them. I posted the results of my
research and my intentions of betting this non-basic strategy subset.
The naysayers came out in force (too small SS, datamining, bla, bla.).
Keep in mind I never encouraged anyone else to follow along, just that
I was betting them.

Fast forward to 2010 and the out-of-sample results for the last 5 years.
From 2005 to 2010 this subset has went 112-36-1 for 75.7%, or even better
than the in-sample study. It should be noted that this subset has
consistantly done better than the BS subsets, both for the entire 16
year study and the last 5 years.

Now let's look at the ATS results for this subset compared to the
teaser win rate. Keep in mind all dogs ATS have historically covered
at a 51.2% rate (2103-1988-137). So it's no surprise that this subset
also did well ATS. From 2005 to 2010 it has went 80-67-2 ATS for 54.4%.
A cover rate of 54.4% ATS at -110 is +EV 3.8%,at -105 it's +EV 6.2%.
Teasers covering at a 75.7% rate, at -110 are +EV 9.4%, at even money
14.6%. So clearly if you had to chose between winning straight bets
at 54.4% or teasers at 75.7% the teasers are better bets. However,
I've been a strong advocate of making straight bets AND teasers bets
if the data support it (I use this stategy often in NFLX games). Just as
a side note, last year (2009) the teaser subset went 20-4-0 for 83.3%
but the ATS was a loser at 11-13 for 45.8%.

So there you have it, people can make up their own minds on how to bet.
It's easy for people to make vague allegations on someone else's method-
ologies, but they don't, as they say, "show their work".

[trixtrix]

the first thought that came to my mind after nyj scored that interception td, was that this game's end result would make btc really happy, lol

[dimon]

yeah, don't tease if you don't know what are you doing...but, can be a great help if you have knowledge...

[dimon]

Bill I can say that I am new to the teasers, been straight betting for quite some time, and main thing is I am UP and want to add to my knowledge...RD of 4.5-6 is a solid, and I went and check it...however, here what I want to ask you and if someone want to contribute that's fine too...will you tease all beats that fits the criteria, let's say you have 2 BS, 1 RD of 4.5, and 1 HF of 7-9..that's total of 4...so will you put 6 two-team-teasers, 4 three-team, and 1 on all for...or would you bet them different?

And also, I still try to understand how to determine at what odds you should play and pass?

Example, last Sunday: WAS and CHI...were both +2.5, but I think Pinnacle closer were +108 for WAS and +105 for CHI...I know both won SU but does those odds disqulify these as the plays for BS teaser?

[Bill the cop]

the first thought that came to my mind after nyj scored that interception td, was that this game's end result would make btc really happy, lol

What's funny Trix, is that although I had Minn +4.5 teased up to +10.5 and it covered, Don Best closers (my database source) showed Minn+4, so this game won't show up in the year end data as a winner for the RD+4.5 to +6 subset.

[trixtrix]

i had +14.5, oh well at least it was still in the sweet spot range

[Highland]

What do you guys value a Browns +21.5 teaser at if the line is gonna close +14 +100 or maybe 13.5? Seeing this at 5dimes and thinking of using it in a 6 pointer.

[Bill the cop]

What do you guys value a Browns +21.5 teaser at if the line is gonna close +14 +100 or maybe 13.5? Seeing this at 5dimes and thinking of using it in a 6 pointer.

I'm not sure how you get to +21.5 teasing a +14 dog up 6 points. But RDs +13.5 to +14.5 teased up 6 points have went 58-30-1 for 65.9% over the last 16 years, a loser.

[Highland]

I'm not sure how you get to +21.5 teasing a +14 dog up 6 points. But RDs +13.5 to +14.5 teased up 6 points have went 58-30-1 for 65.9% over the last 16 years, a loser.

5dimes has the line 15.5 (market 14) to protect against Pittsburgh teasers, so teasing Cleveland gets me to 21.5. Can you give me RD's 13.5 and 14.5 teased up 8 points?

[dimon]

Bill I can say that I am new to the teasers, been straight betting for quite some time, and main thing is I am UP and want to add to my knowledge...RD of 4.5-6 is a solid, and I went and check it...however, here what I want to ask you and if someone want to contribute that's fine too...will you tease all beats that fits the criteria, let's say you have 2 BS, 1 RD of 4.5, and 1 HF of 7-9..that's total of 4...so will you put 6 two-team-teasers, 4 three-team, and 1 on all for...or would you bet them different?

And also, I still try to understand how to determine at what odds you should play and pass?

Example, last Sunday: WAS and CHI...were both +2.5, but I think Pinnacle closer were +108 for WAS and +105 for CHI...I know both won SU but does those odds disqulify these as the plays for BS teaser?

Bill did you get a chance to take a look at my post? Thanks

[ouman101]

What's funny Trix, is that although I had Minn +4.5 teased up to +10.5 and it covered, Don Best closers (my database source) showed Minn+4, so this game won't show up in the year end data as a winner for the RD+4.5 to +6 subset.

Maybe this is a dumb question, but what do you typically use as the other half of your teaser to go with the +4.5 bet? For example, last nights game obviously would have been nice to have Minn. +10.5, but teasing the total is usually a bad idea (at least from my understanding). So did you use last nights game with one of Sundays?

[Bill the cop]

Maybe this is a dumb question, but what do you typically use as the other half of your teaser to go with the +4.5 bet? For example, last nights game obviously would have been nice to have Minn. +10.5, but teasing the total is usually a bad idea (at least from my understanding). So did you use last nights game with one of Sundays?

Minn wasn't a play earlier, but when it hit +4.5 I had options. I could have just taken it as an "open leg", or paired it up with KC+4.5 or Chi -7. I went with KC+4.5 teased to +10.5.

You're right teasing totals is a bad idea.

[Bill the cop]

Bill did you get a chance to take a look at my post? Thanks

How you bet your teasers is dependent on what odds you can get. If you can get even money on 2 teamers (70.7% BE), fine, go with them. You can RR the 2 teamers to mitigate variance if you chose. Most books don't offer 2 teamers at even money, but do offer 4 teamers at +300 (which is also BE 70.7% per leg). Some offer 3 teamers at +180, which is BE 70.9%. If you have 4 teaser candidates, you can either RR them with 6 two teamer bets or 4 three teamers, or, of course, one 4 teamer.

As far as the odds you mention. If one book has Chi-7 at -120 and another has Chi-7.5 at +100, I'll tease the Chi-7 down to -1 rather than the -7.5 down to -1.5. You are not paying anymore when betting teasers if the line is -120 or +100.

[Bill the cop]

5dimes has the line 15.5 (market 14) to protect against Pittsburgh teasers, so teasing Cleveland gets me to 21.5. Can you give me RD's 13.5 and 14.5 teased up 8 points?

RDs 13.5 to 14.5 teased up 8 points, 61-26-2 for 70.1%, my advice is to leave it alone it's a losing subset.

[donjuan]

BTC,

So why just RDs then? Do the RDs of 4.5-6 have some super-special reason to push on 5-12 more than HDs of that subset and favs of 10.5-12? Or is it just that the RDs did better in your (still) small sample?

[dimon]

Guys, whay do you think of the idea to discus the teaser plays for upcomming weekend in new thread...everyone can post the plays and give the reason behind it...what do you think?

[dimon]

looks like for this week potential plays:

209, 211..and so far that's it seems like

[Bill the cop]

BTC,

So why just RDs then? Do the RDs of 4.5-6 have some super-special reason to push on 5-12 more than HDs of that subset and favs of 10.5-12? Or is it just that the RDs did better in your (still) small sample?

I know this is just a sarcastic inquiry on your part, but I'll answer it anyway. There really is a difference in results between home and away games with similar lines. Consider the cover rate of HF 7.5 to 8.5 teased down, it captures the whole 3 and 7 and has performed quite well over the last 16 years at 74.2%. However, the RF 7.5 to 8.5 teased down over the same time frame and also capturing the whole 3 and 7 has only covered the the 6 point tease 65.3% of the time. Is there some super-special reason the HFs did better?

My original theory suggests that small Home Favs are given too much credit and are probably pretty much a pickem on a neutral field. So with the additional 6 points covering >10 the RDs do quite well with a 74.5% cover rate.

This argument about sample size is really getting old. The SS for the RD 4.5 to 6 is now 468, which is much larger than the combined 322 sample size for basic strategy HF and RF subsets.

In the final analysis, I've been betting this subset (and so have other people) for over 5 years now with excellent results. If people want to stand on the sidelines with their hands in their pockets and take shots at a winning subset, that's their prerogative. If something changes in the future that suggests this is no longer a winning subset, I'll stop betting them. Simple as that!

[Pancho sanza]

I know this is just a sarcastic inquiry on your part, but I'll answer it anyway. There really is a difference in results between home and away games with similar lines. Consider the cover rate of HF 7.5 to 8.5 teased down, it captures the whole 3 and 7 and has performed quite well over the last 16 years at 74.2%. However, the RF 7.5 to 8.5 teased down over the same time frame and also capturing the whole 3 and 7 has only covered the the 6 point tease 65.3% of the time. Is there some super-special reason the HFs did better?

So why then do books put out a similiar moneyline for a Road -7.5 and home -7.5?

[donjuan]

I know this is just a sarcastic inquiry on your part, but I'll answer it anyway. There really is a difference in results between home and away games with similar lines. Consider the cover rate of HF 7.5 to 8.5 teased down, it captures the whole 3 and 7 and has performed quite well over the last 16 years at 74.2%. However, the RF 7.5 to 8.5 teased down over the same time frame and also capturing the whole 3 and 7 has only covered the the 6 point tease 65.3% of the time. Is there some super-special reason the HFs did better?

My original theory suggests that small Home Favs are given too much credit and are probably pretty much a pickem on a neutral field. So with the additional 6 points covering >10 the RDs do quite well with a 74.5% cover rate.

This argument about sample size is really getting old. The SS for the RD 4.5 to 6 is now 468, which is much larger than the combined 322 sample size for basic strategy HF and RF subsets.

In the final analysis, I've been betting this subset (and so have other people) for over 5 years now with excellent results. If people want to stand on the sidelines with their hands in their pockets and take shots at a winning subset, that's their prerogative. If something changes in the future that suggests this is no longer a winning subset, I'll stop betting them. Simple as that!

Yeah, the super-special reason is that in the past the market was biased. Due to myriad factors, I (and many others) believe this is no longer the case. The market has become a lot more efficient in the last 10 years.

But that's not what I asked you. I asked you about the specific "sweet spot" for your RD teasers, not about their overall cover rate going forward. What makes you think a RD's distribution is significantly different than a HD's distribution?

And lastly, if you think there is a significant bias in NFL ATS going forward, you don't have any clue what you're doing. Which brings me back to my first post on this thread...